FiveThirtyEight's "Way-Too-Early 2020 Democratic Primary Draft"

[ShamDam]

And so it begins.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-2020-democratic-primary-draft/

Here's their lineups:

Micah:
1. Elizabeth Warren
10. Al Franken
11. Deval Patrick
20. Roy Cooper
21. Kasim Reed
26. Martin O'Malley

Nate:
2. Bernie Sanders
9. Michelle Obama
12. Hillary Clinton
19. Sherrod Brown
22. Bill de Blasio
29. Al Gore

Perry:
3. Joe Biden
8. Cory Booker
13. Eric Garcetti
18. Chris Murphy
23. Mark Zuckerberg
28. Jeff Merkley

Harry:
4. Kamala Harris
7. Amy Klobuchar
14. Steve Bullock
17. Jason Kander
24. Mitch Landrieu
27. John Kerry

Clare:
5. Kirsten Gillibrand
6. Tim Ryan
15. Dwayne Johnson
16. John Hickenlooper
25. Mark Cuban
26. Julian Castro

Your thoughts? Is there anyone who could win that isn't on this list? Is there anyone on here that should just not even be remotely considered? WHERE'S OPRAH???

[publicunofficial]

Kasim Reed? Really?

[kyc0705]

This is about what I would say, especially the top 10 or so.

[Del Tachi]

Where's Cuomo and McAuliffe? 

Looks about right...Warren and Sanders are front-runners. Clintonism is dead

A Clintonite will win.  These are the Democrats were talking about after-all.  Booker, Harris, Cuomo, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, etc.

[Del Tachi]

Where's Cuomo and McAuliffe? 

Looks about right...Warren and Sanders are front-runners. Clintonism is dead

A Clintonite will win.  These are the Democrats were talking about after-all.  Booker, Harris, Cuomo, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, etc.

Cuomo has absolutely potential path in the primary and shouldn't even be seriously discussed as a viable contender.

He's the governor of one of the most dynamic and influential states in the country and has a large New York fundraising/media base to draw from.  He's way more of a contender than people like Steve Bullock and Mitch Landrieu.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Well we can see why they got the election wrong... these lists are dog sh*t

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone want to try making their own draft board for this?  Ranking the top 30 most likely nominees, in order? 

[tomhguy]

1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Bernie Sanders
5. Martin O'Malley
6. Cory Booker
7. Kirsten Gillibrand
8. Andrew Cuomo
9. Al Franken
10. Deval Patrick
11. John Hickenlooper
12. Sherrod Brown
13. Dwayne Johnson
14. Jerry Brown
15. John delaney

Ohhhh boyy... the democrats are in trouble if Biden or Sanders don't win!

[Kamala]

Anyone want to try making their own draft board for this?  Ranking the top 30 most likely nominees, in order?  

http://challonge.com/4doam1wo

I created a massive, random-seeded 64-candidate bracket. Where should I post a voting thread?

EDIT: boom

[kyc0705]

Well we can see why they got the election wrong... these lists are dog sh*t

A member of this forum is not exactly in a position to call anyone else’s political analyses bad.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Does he think he is a comedian?! Don't make me bring back the Brokeback Mountain pic, Nate


e: Apparently I do after reading a little bit further. Except replace Rubio with...with..

You must be logged in to read this quote.

vomit

Congrats everyone but Bernie!

[Possiblymaybe]

Where's Cuomo and McAuliffe?  

Looks about right...Warren and Sanders are front-runners. Clintonism is dead

A Clintonite will win.  These are the Democrats were talking about after-all.  Booker, Harris, Cuomo, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, etc.

The Clinton era is over imo. Younger democrats are looking to Bernie.

[heatcharger]

Where's Cuomo and McAuliffe? 

Looks about right...Warren and Sanders are front-runners. Clintonism is dead

A Clintonite will win.  These are the Democrats were talking about after-all.  Booker, Harris, Cuomo, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, etc.

The Clinton era is over imo. Younger democrats are looking to Bernie.

Looks like it’s the other way around.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I still think the nominee will ultimately be someone we consider right now as "second tier". I have a hard time seeing any of the current front-runners running credible campaigns at such old ages. Plus, I think Democrats would do better if they pick a younger candidate that the public at-large doesn't know much about.

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone want to try making their own draft board for this?  Ranking the top 30 most likely nominees, in order?  

http://challonge.com/4doam1wo

I created a massive, random-seeded 64-candidate bracket. Where should I post a voting thread?

EDIT: boom

Cool.  But it looks like you're asking who people would like better as the nominee (or as president), or at least that's how people are interpreting it.  What I was more curious about was whether anyone actually had a "draft board" of potential Dem. nominees ranked on the basis of likelihood of winning the nomination, which is what the 538 folks were doing.  I've done a top 5 or so before, but going up to 30 names like in the 538 draft, and actually really thinking about the order....seems rather daunting.

[Tintrlvr]

This is about what I would say, especially the top 10 or so.

Tim Ryan??? Michelle Obama???

Top 5 are fine, although I think Biden and Sanders are both too old and won't run, and Warren is way overrated as a candidate. Sherrod Brown, Chris Murphy and Roy Cooper seem undersold here. And there are a lot of super weird choices lower down in place of relatively viable albeit unlikely winning candidates like Cuomo and McAuliffe. And I actually agree a bit with "Where's Oprah?" if you're going to include The Rock...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Remember, Jim Webb is the anti-Hillary.

[Orser67]

Seems reasonable to me. I'd switch Julian Castro and the Rock, give Reed's spot to Oprah, and give de Blasio's spot to Kaine.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Sherrod Brown is criminally underrated in this draft.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Why does it seem that Nate is the only logical person at 538? That being said I find a deBlasio presidency hilarious.

[Blackacre]

Sherrod Brown is criminally underrated in this draft.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Remember, Jim Webb is the anti-Hillary.

Unlike Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb would have won a national election.

[Lechasseur]

Sherrod Brown is criminally underrated in this draft.

Agreed

Remember, Jim Webb is the anti-Hillary.

Unlike Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb would have won a national election.

Absolutely. Alot of conservatives and moderates would have voted for him

[Mr. Smith]

Sherrod Brown is criminally underrated in this draft.

Agreed

Remember, Jim Webb is the anti-Hillary.

Unlike Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb would have won a national election.

Absolutely. Alot of conservatives and moderates would have voted for him

And the progressive base might've gone to Jill Stein in resignation and flipped places such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Florida instead of The Rust Belt

[kyc0705]

Sherrod Brown is criminally underrated in this draft.

Agreed

Remember, Jim Webb is the anti-Hillary.

Unlike Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb would have won a national election.

Absolutely. Alot of conservatives and moderates would have voted for him

And the progressive base might've gone to Jill Stein in resignation and flipped places such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Florida instead of The Rust Belt

Yeah, that’s one thing that tends to get lost when people talk about the merits of [INSERT CENTRIST CANDIDATE HERE]. If you run someone that’s too moderate, the more ideological flank of the party might go third party or stay home.