Can Tronald Dump pick up any states?

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The only state I can imagine them picking up is Nevada. New Hampshire is extremely anti-trump now.

[Del Tachi]

Plenty.  Two more EV's from ME, NH, VA, MN, CO and NV are all distinct possibilities. 

[varesurgent]

NH, ME, MN would be the most likely, but things gotta change for that to happen

[Rookie Yinzer]

No. He hardly outdid any of Romney's margins in the close states that he lost. His opponent dropped the ball and hit the Democrat floor in those states. Anyone with any sort of competency and no scandals can keep Trump at bay.

[UncleSam]

Obviously? Hell he could pick up multiple states and lose - we don't know who the nominee will be or where his / her strengths or weaknesses will lie. We don't know how the midterms will go. There are many variables at play here.

For the record, I think if the election were held today he would pick up states on any Democrat in the country. I really do think Dems will need to coalesce behind a strong nominee with a unique and inspiring policy vision to beat him.

Such candidates do exist, they've just not gotten the spotlight yet aside from Sanders (who may be too old, we will see). But there is honestly only a handful of states is give Trump less than a 5% chance of winning (similarly, there's only a handful is states I'd give him less than a 5% chance of losing) - there's just so many unknowns right now.

[cvparty]

not at this rate

[HisGrace]

Minnesota and Maine are possibilities.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Why is everybody talking about Donald Trump? Clearly the OP is talking about Tronald Dump, who's a completely different President.

For example, I can completely see Dump carry Virginia, which Trump could never do.

[Xing]

MN and NH are the only ones that seem plausible. NV's not going to happen, and I'd sooner see ME swing heavily back to the Democrats than go for Trump. I could see VA being somewhat closer if the Democrats nominate someone like Sanders or Warren, but I don't think he'd actually win it.

[Pericles]

New Hampshire definitely. Maine too. Maybe Minnesota.

[pbrower2a]

Obviously? Hell he could pick up multiple states and lose - we don't know who the nominee will be or where his / her strengths or weaknesses will lie. We don't know how the midterms will go. There are many variables at play here.

For the record, I think if the election were held today he would pick up states on any Democrat in the country. I really do think Dems will need to coalesce behind a strong nominee with a unique and inspiring policy vision to beat him.

Such candidates do exist, they've just not gotten the spotlight yet aside from Sanders (who may be too old, we will see). But there is honestly only a handful of states is give Trump less than a 5% chance of winning (similarly, there's only a handful is states I'd give him less than a 5% chance of losing) - there's just so many unknowns right now.

Look at the most recent polling and the only state that he lost in which he has a disapproval rating of 53% or less is Nevada. He would get blown away in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, or Virginia.

53%? Not out of the realm of possibility... I recall seeing a poll in which Obama had a disapproval rating of 53%  in 2011 (Ohio), and he eventually won it in the next election. So it is possible to win after having a disapproval rating of 53%. But that requires much going right.  

Obama was about as good a campaigner as there was, and more importantly he didn't put his foot in his mouth anywhere nearly as often as Trump. If you voted for Obama in 2008, you got what you expected.  With Trump one got wild promises, many of which can never be achieved because they are impossible, impractical, or beyond his political skills.

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

I choose disapproval because it is sticky downward.  Now how does President Trump win re-election? Subtract disapproval from 100 and you get an idea of the maximum vote for him in 2020, assuming that nothing gets worse. Sure, he could win Utah with a 45-30-25 split of the vote... he would practically need a splintering of the anti-Trump vote (that is, a strong third-party or independent alternative) to win again.  

I see him with a bigger chance of losing Texas (which no Republican nominee for President has lost since 1976) than of winning Minnesota (which no Democratic nominee for President has lost since 1972). Minnesota was close in 2016. I see him more likely indeed to lose like Carter in 1980 or Hoover in 1932 than to get re-elected.

We just have no idea of what a Democratic win of 380 or more electoral votes would look like because we have not seen any big blowout elections for any Democratic nominee for President since 1964 -- and before that, FDR elections. I'm not saying that 'we' are due for such.  

[MAINEiac4434]

Plenty.  Two more EV's from ME, NH, VA, MN, CO and NV are all distinct possibilities. 

Are you high

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kamala Harris is perfectly capable of losing MN, NH, and ME.

[UncleSam]

Obviously? Hell he could pick up multiple states and lose - we don't know who the nominee will be or where his / her strengths or weaknesses will lie. We don't know how the midterms will go. There are many variables at play here.

For the record, I think if the election were held today he would pick up states on any Democrat in the country. I really do think Dems will need to coalesce behind a strong nominee with a unique and inspiring policy vision to beat him.

Such candidates do exist, they've just not gotten the spotlight yet aside from Sanders (who may be too old, we will see). But there is honestly only a handful of states is give Trump less than a 5% chance of winning (similarly, there's only a handful is states I'd give him less than a 5% chance of losing) - there's just so many unknowns right now.

Look at the most recent polling and the only state that he lost in which he has a disapproval rating of 53% or less is Nevada. He would get blown away in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, or Virginia.

53%? Not out of the realm of possibility... I recall seeing a poll in which Obama had a disapproval rating of 53%  in 2011 (Ohio), and he eventually won it in the next election. So it is possible to win after having a disapproval rating of 53%. But that requires much going right.  

Obama was about as good a campaigner as there was, and more importantly he didn't put his foot in his mouth anywhere nearly as often as Trump. If you voted for Obama in 2008, you got what you expected.  With Trump one got wild promises, many of which can never be achieved because they are impossible, impractical, or beyond his political skills.

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

I choose disapproval because it is sticky downward.  Now how does President Trump win re-election? Subtract disapproval from 100 and you get an idea of the maximum vote for him in 2020, assuming that nothing gets worse. Sure, he could win Utah with a 45-30-25 split of the vote... he would practically need a splintering of the anti-Trump vote (that is, a strong third-party or independent alternative) to win again.  

I see him with a bigger chance of losing Texas (which no Republican nominee for President has lost since 1976) than of winning Minnesota (which no Democratic nominee for President has lost since 1972). Minnesota was close in 2016. I see him more likely indeed to lose like Carter in 1980 or Hoover in 1932 than to get re-elected.

We just have no idea of what a Democratic win of 380 or more electoral votes would look like because we have not seen any big blowout elections for any Democratic nominee for President since 1964 -- and before that, FDR elections. I'm not saying that 'we' are due for such.  

Disapproval ratings are nearly meaningless when it comes to Donald Trump. You are forgetting that he had a 60% disapproval rating in Wisconsin and Michigan on the day on which he won both states. This happened because almost a quarter of people who said they disliked Donald Trump voted for him anyway across the upper Midwest. 57% disapproval in WI or MI is an improvement for him, lol.

No, he does not have a ceiling of (100 - disapproval), even assuming everything stays constant. If the election were held today I'd bet you a significant amount of money he would carry WI and a smaller but substantial amount he would carry MI, because something like 10% of the people there disapprove of him but vote for him anyway (and of course, all those who approve of him don't vote for him anyway).

That's the problem with approval / disapproval polls - they come down to how much you like someone, not whether you would vote for them. They're misleading and should not be taken as anything other than a weak correlate of electoral strength region by region.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Disapproval ratings are nearly meaningless when it comes to Donald Trump. You are forgetting that he had a 60% disapproval rating in Wisconsin and Michigan on the day on which he won both states. This happened because almost a quarter of people who said they disliked Donald Trump voted for him anyway across the upper Midwest. 57% disapproval in WI or MI is an improvement for him, lol.

Anti-Trumpers are going to make the same mistakes they did in 2016. Its going to be beautiful to watch lol.

The 2016 domination taught them nothing.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Disapproval ratings are nearly meaningless when it comes to Donald Trump. You are forgetting that he had a 60% disapproval rating in Wisconsin and Michigan on the day on which he won both states. This happened because almost a quarter of people who said they disliked Donald Trump voted for him anyway across the upper Midwest. 57% disapproval in WI or MI is an improvement for him, lol.

Anti-Trumpers are going to make the same mistakes they did in 2016. Its going to be beautiful to watch lol.

The 2016 domination taught them nothing.

Is there any map that shows Hillary's favorable / unfavorable rating in every state before Nov 2016 vs Trump's favorable / unfavorable in every state? It's hard to say how accurate of a measure approvals / favorability is without comparing the two.

Saying Trump won w/ a 60% disapproval in Michigan is sorta irrelevant if Hillary's disapproval was similarly high.

Also as a Democrat, Dumbass Jimmy Carter winning over Hillary Clinton is actually an amazing thing for us now that I think about it tbh. Dumbass Jimmy Carter's a lame duck 8 months in. Hillary winning would have led to a likely massacre in the 2018 senate.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think NH is the most likely as of now, followed by ME-at-large and MN. Nevertheless, if he manages to win reelection, I'm pretty sure the EC margin will decrease.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

It depends on the nominee. But in general, I would say his best would be Minnesota. He narrowly lost it in 2016 and is a state that fits well with Trump's brand of populism. If you asked me a few months ago, I would of said New Hampshire, but he's been despised there every since the "drug filled den" comment. I don't see him winning Maine or Colorado in any scenario, and Nevada is a stretch. If a progressive like Warren or Bernie were the nominee I could see states like Virginia and Delaware (Yes I'm serious) coming into play.

[Simfan34]

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

If he could hold on to WI-MI-PA and improve on his '16 results in those states, then I think it's likely he'd take Minnesota as well.

Unless Al Franken is the nominee, then he'd lose Minnesota and damn near every other swing state.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why is everybody talking about Donald Trump? Clearly the OP is talking about Tronald Dump, who's a completely different President.

For example, I can completely see Dump carry Virginia, which Trump could never do.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Virginia
Nevada
New Hampshire
Maine
Colorado
Minnesota
Illinois

None of these would be easy.  I should say that I don't expect Trump to carry Michigan and Wisconsin in 2012, and I consider the Democrats slight favorites in Pennsylvania.

[Kamala]

Virginia
Nevada
New Hampshire
Maine
Colorado
Minnesota
Illinois

None of these would be easy.  I should say that I don't expect Trump to carry Michigan and Wisconsin in 2012, and I consider the Democrats slight favorites in Pennsylvania.

I assume Rocket Man has nuked Chicago in this scenario?

[super6646]

Virginia
Nevada
New Hampshire
Maine
Colorado
Minnesota
Illinois

None of these would be easy.  I should say that I don't expect Trump to carry Michigan and Wisconsin in 2012, and I consider the Democrats slight favorites in Pennsylvania.

I assume Rocket Man has nuked Chicago in this scenario?

Yeah, I mean I can't see Trump winning Illinois under any circumstance.