If Alaska had two CD's...
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  If Alaska had two CD's...
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: September 21, 2017, 06:28:12 PM »
« edited: September 21, 2017, 06:46:56 PM by politicalmasta73 »

suppose alaska's population doubled its population but growth by location was stagnant.  How would the districts look and what would the delagation be? Could you gerrymander a Dem district? discuss.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2017, 06:42:49 PM »
« Edited: September 21, 2017, 06:55:44 PM by Tintrlvr »

suppose alaska's population doubled population growth by location was stagnant.  How would the districts look and what would the delagation be? Could you gerrymander a Dem district? discuss.

One district would be Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley (total 400k, so would have to have some areas on the edge carved off), the other district would be everything else (total 310k plus the excess from the first grouping).

The non-Anchorage/Mat-Su district in the scenario I highlighted above would at least be competitive. You could gerrymander a lean-Dem district if you packed the Mat-Su, Fairbanks, Kenai and more GOP parts of Anchorage into one district. Not possible to draw an Obama 2008 district, but the state Dems do much better statewide these days than Obama did in 2008, especially in Native areas. (Obama 2012 or Clinton 2016 are a much better benchmarks.)

Probably the only state in the nation where you could actually justify air contiguity, too. I drew a three-district Alaska that connects central Anchorage to the bush via Anchorage Airport for one district, with the other two being Fairbanks-Mat-Su and Kenai-Suburban Anchorage.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2017, 09:33:26 PM »

My commiseration to those candidates who will have to campaign in the 2nd district!
(But since it will be a Democratic-leaning district, my commiserations keep within reasonable limits.)

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2017, 09:33:28 PM »

The best bet would be to put the Anchorage and Matanuska-Susitna boroughs (minus a few thousand people) in one CD, and the rest of the state in the other. From the perspective of the AK GOP, Democrats have proven to be competitive statewide, so there'd be decent motivation for them to draw one absolutely safe CD and then fight to pull out a win in the other (which probably still leans R).

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