Delaware was closer to the PV than Ohio and Iowa?!
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  Delaware was closer to the PV than Ohio and Iowa?!
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Author Topic: Delaware was closer to the PV than Ohio and Iowa?!  (Read 1224 times)
super6646
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« on: September 23, 2017, 01:30:21 PM »

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

I've heard some people on this site say this before, but I just had to see this for myself. Now yes, Clinton did win Delaware by around 11.3% - pretty convincing eh? Clinton won the PV by 2 points, so that means Delaware was just over 9% more democratic than the rest of the country (by margin). Now Trump won Ohio by 8.1%, while also winning Iowa by 9.4% (which was bigger margin than his win in Texas, which does say something), which would make Ohio a bit over 10% more Republican than the rest of the country, while making Iowa around 11.5% more republican than the rest of the country.

Now I understand Ohio does have a SLIGHT Republican tilt, but usually no more than 2-3%. Iowa is the opposite, usually tilting towards the democrats by around the same margin. But this was a very unorthodoxed election, and that means that Delaware was about as much of a battleground as Ohio and Iowa. Now I don't think anyone expected delaware to go Republican, but it certainly does make this election all the more strange.

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Solid4096
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2017, 07:17:43 PM »

Ohio being strong Republican is probably the new norm for Ohio.

Iowa is still probably lean Democrat, and it was a fluke in 2016.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2017, 07:46:18 PM »

There are two problems with assuming that this makes Delaware more of a battleground than Iowa/Ohio. The first is that 2016 is one election, the other is that it assumes that the PV will be even, which has not been the average over the past several elections.
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Figueira
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2017, 07:49:52 PM »

Ohio being strong Republican is probably the new norm for Ohio.

Iowa is still probably lean Democrat, and it was a fluke in 2016.

What are you basing this on?
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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2017, 08:52:53 PM »

Ohio being strong Republican is probably the new norm for Ohio.

Iowa is still probably lean Democrat, and it was a fluke in 2016.

What are you basing this on?

At the fact that the dem party organization in Ohio is in tatters .
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2017, 05:28:46 AM »

Iowa is still probably lean Democrat, and it was a fluke in 2016.

I'm old enough remember people saying the same thing about West Virginia in 2000/2004
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2017, 08:08:09 AM »

I'm unsure about Iowa's trend, but I think it will stick in a reduced form for a variety of reasons.

On Ohio, I think that it has the potential to trend hard to the D's in the right circumstances.

Delaware will probably also stick, or swing even further to the R's if Pence is running.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2017, 09:39:51 AM »

I highly doubt Delaware is becoming a battleground state again. Whether or not 2016 was a unique situation for OH and IA is still too be seen. Trump/a Trump-like Republican isn't winning DE anytime soon; the state state's electorate is dominated by New Castle County (Wilington and its suburbs), which usually >60% D. A Republican would have to keep it within low single digits as well as breaking 60% and 70% in Kent And Sussex counties, respectively.

That being said, Delaware may have been closer in 2016 because of a lack of Joe Biden on the ticket and/or decreased minority turnout.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2017, 11:41:20 AM »

The Dem base in DE is particularly strong.  They have a very high floor, possibly over 50%.  I would be more intrigued by GOP prospects in CT or RI where they only need to either win back the hedge fund crowd or continue building their margin with the white working class to flip the state.
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cvparty
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2017, 11:54:59 AM »

Well yes, but it’s not that Delaware was a battleground state, it’s more that Ohio and Iowa weren’t. Iowa and Ohio were treated as battleground states since they were so close to the PV in the past several elections (nobody expected the massive R margins in 2016). This election was “unorthodox” compared to the recent norm, but you could say that for any election where lasting political shifts began.
Iowa is still probably lean Democrat, and it was a fluke in 2016.
lol
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2017, 01:43:15 PM »

Ohio being strong Republican is probably the new norm for Ohio.

Iowa is still probably lean Democrat, and it was a fluke in 2016.

...what?

I can see tossup, but LEAN D?
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twenty42
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2017, 02:18:50 PM »

Ohio being strong Republican is probably the new norm for Ohio.

Iowa is still probably lean Democrat, and it was a fluke in 2016.

...what?

I can see tossup, but LEAN D?

I encourage this line of thinking. Hopefully the Dems will put plenty of effort into IA/OH/NC in 2020 and help Trump win a second term. They will all trend 1-2 points D and Dems can keep crying about the popular vote.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2017, 03:03:08 PM »

Why is no one mentioning that Delaware is still somewhat of a close state in 2004 Kerry only won Delaware by 7 points I want to say so I really think that if the popular vote is plus 3 or more the GOP will win in Delaware. As for Ohio and Iowa both but mainly Iowa are gone for the democrats look at 2014 generally people thought that Ernst would win by 2-4 points no she won by 8 and if the financial crisis hadn't have happened Iowa would have been red in 2012.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2017, 07:10:30 PM »

Yes, Clinton was a terrible candidate. Trump even almost broke 40% in Rhode Island she was that bad.
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