Best case scenario for democrats and republicans in 2020 electoral college

[super6646]

I didn't play with the margins to much (too lazy to bother), but these are the absolute ceilings that I can see for the Democrats and Republicans in 2020.

Best case scenario for democrats is 374 EC votes, and the best case scenario for republicans is 372 EC votes.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrat: 217
Republican: 156
Battleground: 165

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

[dw93]

For the Democrats:

375 EVs for the Democrats. If Trump is the Republican nominee Texas, Utah, and/or Montana could very narrowly flip to the Dems if there's a strong Kasich or McMullen like third party candidate in the race, but I think the country is too polarized for that now.

For the GOP:

348 for the GOP. If there's a strong Nader/Stein like third party candidate or the Dems nominate that bad of a candidate, Oregon and New Mexico could  flip to the GOP.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I didn't play with the margins to much (too lazy to bother), but these are the absolute ceilings that I can see for the Democrats and Republicans in 2020.

Best case scenario for democrats is 374 EC votes, and the best case scenario for republicans is 372 EC votes.

Trump will have no chance of winning CT, VA, OR, NV, CO, NM. Feel free to quote me on that. In other words, best case for him in 2020 would be all 2016 states plus NH and MN. 320 is his max.

[Xing]

For the Democrats:

375 EVs for the Democrats. If Trump is the Republican nominee Texas, Utah, and/or Montana could very narrowly flip to the Dems if there's a strong Kasich or McMullen like third party candidate in the race, but I think the country is too polarized for that now.

For the GOP:

348 for the GOP. If there's a strong Nader/Stein like third party candidate or the Dems nominate that bad of a candidate, Oregon and New Mexico could  flip to the GOP.

Pretty much this, though Oregon still wouldn't flip with a third party candidate.

[Lechasseur]

For the Democrats:

375 EVs for the Democrats. If Trump is the Republican nominee Texas, Utah, and/or Montana could very narrowly flip to the Dems if there's a strong Kasich or McMullen like third party candidate in the race, but I think the country is too polarized for that now.

For the GOP:

348 for the GOP. If there's a strong Nader/Stein like third party candidate or the Dems nominate that bad of a candidate, Oregon and New Mexico could  flip to the GOP.

This

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I'd say that states I'm 99% certain or more of would be this.

For 90%,

and this would be my current best guess

[President Johnson]

Best Republican scenario:

350 - 188


Best Democratic scenario:

375 - 163

[TML]

I think the absolute (99.999...%) best case scenarios would be the expected results if the largest PV margin in history (26.2% in 1920) were applied to the 2016 results, which would be as follows:

D 537 - R 1 (only NE-3 stays R)

R 535 - D 3 (only DC stays D)

[twenty42]

Democrat: 217
Republican: 156
Battleground: 165

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

So Democrats have a better chance of winning IN, MO, or AK than Republicans have of winning WI which they just won?

[Canis]

Best Republican scenario:

350 - 188


Best Democratic scenario:

375 - 163

This

[MillennialModerate]

For Democrats:

First off I don't get no one would give Missouri to the Dems in their best case map, it's do-able. I mean they have a Dem senator, its possible. Texas is the big prize obviously, Trump got just 52% of
the vote in 2016 and that was against the very dislikable Hillary and before Trump had a record he had to defend. So in BEST case scenario land, it falls... Also, Indiana rarely if ever goes Dem but Obama won it. So it can be done.

For Republicans if they have a different nominee:

For Republicans if Trump is nominee:

(I know most will point out Michigan and say "He just won it?" and I'll say: the margin was historically small and in the most fluke scenario. I think of Trumps Michigan win like Obamas Indiana win.

[pbrower2a]

Democrat: 217
Republican: 156
Battleground: 165

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

So Democrats have a better chance of winning IN, MO, or AK than Republicans have of winning WI which they just won?

That person may live in Wisconsin. I would substitute Michigan for Wisconsin because I see things in Michigan that suggest that Donald Trump has lost so much support that he could never win the state again. But I live in Michigan. Someone who lives in Pennsylvania might see Pennsylvania much the same way as I see Michigan.

Michigan Republicans are creating distance between themselves and President Trump. Trump banners have largely disappeared.

Trump winning Michigan in 2016 increasingly looks like a freak, much like Obama winning Indiana in 2008. But if Indiana reverted to its norm of voting Republican in Presidential elections, it did so because the economic meltdown, the credit crunch, and high prices for motor fuels that hit the critical RV business hard vanished under Obama, Trump is doing nothing for Michigan. That is even worse. 

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrat: 217
Republican: 156
Battleground: 165

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

So Democrats have a better chance of winning IN, MO, or AK than Republicans have of winning WI which they just won?

That person may live in Wisconsin.

Do you even look at user profile images?

[Lord Admirale]

I didn't play with the margins to much (too lazy to bother), but these are the absolute ceilings that I can see for the Democrats and Republicans in 2020.

Best case scenario for democrats is 374 EC votes, and the best case scenario for republicans is 372 EC votes.

Stop with Atlas Blue Delaware. It's not gonna happen.

[GoTfan]

I didn't play with the margins to much (too lazy to bother), but these are the absolute ceilings that I can see for the Democrats and Republicans in 2020.

Best case scenario for democrats is 374 EC votes, and the best case scenario for republicans is 372 EC votes.

Stop with Atlas Blue Delaware. It's not gonna happen.

For once, you and i are in agreement.

[pbrower2a]

Democrat: 217
Republican: 156
Battleground: 165

I was trying to be a bit pessimistic in this map, marking several states I feel Democrats are almost certainly going to win as battlegrounds while not doing the same with equivalent states I feel Republicans are almost certainly going to win.

So Democrats have a better chance of winning IN, MO, or AK than Republicans have of winning WI which they just won?

That person may live in Wisconsin.

Do you even look at user profile images?

Maybe he  knows Wisconsin better than Michigan?

[pbrower2a]

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less

Take 100, subtract the disapproval rating, add 4% to 6% to get the level of vote that President Trump would get, and you get roughly a 50-50 map. Thus for Pennsylvania one gets

100-55 = 45

before the binary vote for Trump goes between 49% and 51% for him in Pennsylvania. This makes Pennsylvania the tipping-point state.  

[Lord Admirale]

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less

Take 100, subtract the disapproval rating, add 4% to 6% to get the level of vote that President Trump would get, and you get roughly a 50-50 map. Thus for Pennsylvania one gets

100-55 = 45

before the binary vote for Trump goes between 49% and 51% for him in Pennsylvania. This makes Pennsylvania the tipping-point state.  

You need to stop that map. There's no way we're gonna win Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Utah, and Texas in 2020. Even Georgia is a stretch.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The answer to this depends on whether you mean ABSOLUTE best case scenario, or realistic best case scenario.

In the absolute largest GOP landslide that I think is possible, the only Democratic states would be Hawaii, California, Maryland, Vermont, Massachusetts and DC (though it's not a state)...  Since Vermont is a small state, it could probably go GOP in such a massive landslide though.


In the absolute largest Democratic landslide that I think is possible, the only Republican states would be Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, and Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District. I believe that states like West Virginia and Arkansas are much more elastic than states like Wyoming, so they would flip long before, say, Wyoming or Idaho.

[Inmate Trump]

For Democrats:

Dem: 419
Trump: 119


From Trump....

Trump: 338
Dem: 200