Who would win? Discuss with maps!
Trump/Pence: 42% (122)
>winning Montana, Texas, and Utah, but not Iowa
10/10 analysis
Iowa Shift from 2008-2016: +18.95 R
Montana Shift from 2008-2016: +18.10 R
ME-02 Shift from 2008-2016: +22 R
The difference between Iowa and Montana is less than a percent, yet you're giving Iowa to the Republicans and Montana to the Democrats despite Montana being 6 points more Republican in 2016. Furthermore, you're giving ME-02 to the Democrats despite it swinging
harder than Iowa while voting by very similar margins in 2016.
The fact of the matter is, 2016 trends are not the be-all-and-end-all of future elections. Hillary was, quite simply, a terrible fit for Iowa, while Trump was a very good fit, and so Iowa's largely very elastic electorate swung hard to Trump in 2016. Gillibrand has also done some good work as distinguishing herself from being Hillary 2.0 and forming her own brand.
Montana and ME-02 are elastic regions as well. All three are definitely within the Democratic ceiling in a landslide election; really, if Montana is, then Iowa
definitely is.
A few other things too:
- Kansas and Missouri should really not be less Republican than Indiana.
- I don't see a Democrat getting anything better than D > 30% in Utah, assuming a McMuffin-esque independent splits the Republican vote
And the big one...this prediction reeks of political hackery. As of now, Democrats are nowhere near guaranteed to win in landslide margin across the country. That may change, but right now, especially as Trump's approvals recently cracked 40% again, it's just simply unlikely. Really, this is the problem with 2020 speculation in general.
Oh, and the Democrats aren't ever going to be right-libertarian, lol.
