Most surprising state result in each election...

[twenty42]

2016--OH. We could talk about the PA/MI/WI flip all day long, but I don't think anybody saw a blowout of that magnitude coming from such an historically purple state.

2012--VA. Not that Obama won it, but how far left it trended so rapidly.

2008--IN without question. It wasn't even Obama's narrowest win either...IN voted 0.7% to the left of NC.

2004--HI. Kerry only won it by 8.74%, despite Gore winning it by 19% in 2000 and then Obama winning it by 45% in 2008. The fact that 2004 HI was almost as close as 2016 OH gives it a strange perspective.

2000--KY. Bill Clinton carried it twice and it was considered a contentious swing state, but Bush carried it by over 15 points.

1996--CO. It had been trending Democratic, but Dole managed to flip it back to the Republicans despite a national Democratic swing. The electoral college was quirky that year...despite said national Democratic swing, Dole managed to flip three 1992 D states whereas Clinton only flipped two 1992 R states.

1992--Tie between VT and CA. Everybody knew the tide was turning in these states, but Clinton winning them by 15 points was pretty decisive.

Feel free to add your own or post disagreements...

[dw93]

2016: WI, PA, and MI aside, I'd say Iowa was more of a surprise than Ohio. As you said, Ohio has always been a purple state, Iowa, minus a narrow GOP win in 2004, has been reliably Democratic since 1988. Obama won it by around the same margin Trump won it in 2016, and even in 2012 Obama won it by almost 6%. Ohio was much closer in 2012 and even 2008.

2012: Agreed with Virginia, but I would also add North Carolina. Not because Romney won it, but because he won it so narrowly.

2008: Agreed with Indiana, but would add Virginia and North Carolina because until then, VA hadn't voted DEM since 1964 and NC hadn't since '76. I was also kind of surprised at the time that McCain won Missouri. Given recent trends though, it's not so surprising in hindsight.

2004: I would agree about Hawaii being intriguing, but I was never really surprised by any particular results in that election.

2000: I would put West Virginia above Kentucky. West Virginia was a reliably Democratic state at that point and only swung to the GOP in the biggest of landslides. Even in 1980 and 1988, it stuck with the Democrats. Tennessee was surprising to given Gore represented it in the Senate for 8 years prior to being VP, was also a US Representative from there prior to being a Senator, and the fact that Bill carried it twice  (although if he did win it, it still would've been close). Arkansas was also a bit surprising considering it was Bill's home state and one he carried twice and it was his VP running that year.

1996: Arizona was more surprising. The Democrats hadn't won it since 1948 at that point and given the fact that overall, Perot did worse there in 1996 than he did in 1992 and given the fact that Dole was able to swing Colorado and Montana back to the Republican column at the same time makes it even more surprising.

1992: Texas. Yes Bush had a home state advantage, but so did Perot, that should've tipped the scales to Clinton, and this was also the first Presidential election that the Democrats won without carrying Texas.  New Hampshire, like Vermont,  was also a reliably Republican state prior to that election that swung to the Democrats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992: NH - This was a solid GOP state in 1992 how it flipped to Clinton is stunning

1996: AZ - This was a GOP state since 1948 and even in 64 and 92 it went GOP so  it flipping dem was stunning


2000: WV - Went from being a + 6 dem state PVI to + 5 in one election

2004- I agree with Hawaii but other than that there was no result that was surprising

2008- Indiana no doubt

2012: VA for being more dem than nation

2016 : MI

[Mr. Smith]

1960: Arizona sticking with Nixon after being a bellwether with a strong Democratic underbelly for so long.

1964: Idaho flipped to LBJ

1972: Minnesota and Rhode Island didn't remain D like Massachusetts

1976: Virginia going to Ford.

1980: Massachusetts flipping to Reagan

1984: Minnesota holding out for Mondale, even accounting for the home state effect

1988: Maryland going to Bush Sr

1992: Georgia going to Clinton

1996: Colorado going to Dole

2000: New Hampshire going to Bush, and arguably being the REAL tipping point of the election

2004: Ohio actually being slightly left of the nation.

2008: Missouri not going to Obama

2012: Florida being so close.

2016: Arizona's major leftward trend, so much so that it wasn't even called the actual night...and it was left of North Carolina...that hasn't happened since 1996!

[AuH2O Republican]

1960: Hawaii and Alaska. A professor once told me that, this being their first presidential election, Hawaii was predicted to be a Republican state and Alaska a Democratic one. If this is actually nonsense, I’m going to say Ohio. Nixon never did tell JFK how he carried it.

1964: Virginia. One of the most Republican-friendly states in the post-Solid South, its state party had to fight just to get it to endorse the national ticket.

1968: Texas. There are numerous factors here for Humphrey (LBJ’s coattails, split in right wing vote) but it is still an impressive achievement for a liberal Northern Democrat to capture this, his only pickup in the old Solid South.

1972: Wisconsin. McGovern was competitive in a state which had twice backed Nixon previously, even in a landslide year such as this, and performed better there than in other traditionally solid Democratic states such as West Virginia.

1976: The South. Carter doing so well in a region which was ever increasingly trending Republican.

1980: Again, the South. Reagan’s conservatism obviously won the day with the conservative South, but Carter managed to lose within 2.12% of the vote in 6 of the 10 Southern states he didn’t win.

1984: Minnesota. Did electoral irregularities prevent this from going Republican?

1988: Iowa. It hadn’t been won by a Democrat since the 1964 landslide, only the second time since the war it had gone that way (1948 being the other time). Dukakis managed to win it quite convincingly too.

1992: Montana. No doubt the Perot effect was strong here, but still an impressive pick up in a traditionally Republican state.

1996: Arizona. What did Bob Dole do wrong here to lose this traditionally Republican state?

2000: West Virginia. The Democrats have never really recovered here.

2004: Wisconsin. Considering the circumstances, I would have thought Kerry would have performed better.

2008: Hard to call between Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana. But I’m going to say Virginia, on the basis that there was a confident consensus that Obama would carry a very swing-y swing state.

2012: Because of its similarities to the 2008 election, I’m going to throw in a curveball here and say the Oklahoma Democratic primary. Randall Terry actually won delegates (though later stripped of them).

2016: Obviously a few surprises in this one, but I want to say Florida. It was called early enough that it made my friends and I realise that Trump was actually going to win the whole thing.

[PragmaticPopulist]

1960: I agree that Hawaii was the most surprising. Kennedy won it by only 115 votes.
1964: I actually think Florida was more surprising than Idaho or Arizona; the past 4 elections indicated it was trending R.
1968: Texas. This was the first time it hadn't voted for the winner since 1924.
1972:  Not many real surprises, but I'd say MN because in the decade before it appeared as if it was trending D. Humphrey had won it by 12.5%.
1976: there were a lot of surprises, but I'd say it's between MS or WI. MS was Nixon's best state in 1972, and until this election, WI had appeared to be trending R.
1980: MA, because it voted for Reagan by a hair and was D-leaning since 1960.
1984: MN. The election was looking like another 1972, but MN still narrowly remained in the D column.
1988: Not too many real surprises, since the farm crisis in the Midwest was blamed on Republicans, and Oregon and Washington had been showing signs of trending D for awhile. I'd say WV, since it was looking like it was trending R for the passed two elections
1992: NH, because Dukakis only got got 36% there and lost by 26%, while Bill Clinton got only 39% and won by about a point.
1996: AZ. First time since 1948 it had voted for a Democrat.
2000: WV. Clinton had won it by 13% just 4 years earlier
2004: WI. Gore barely won it in 2000, and it appeared it was on track to vote Republican in 2004.
2008: IN all the way, since it had voted for Bush by nearly 21% in 2004.
2012: Not any real surprises, but for a time, it did look like Obama would win the election without winning FL.
2016: MI. Obama had nearly won it by 10% in 2012.

[Sir Mohamed]

Since 1956:

1956: MO going to Stevenson after losing the state in 1952

1960: NV going to JFK

1964: LBJ winning UT

1968: Humphrey wins TX

1972: Nixon wins over 70% in FL

1976: Carter wins TX by a fair margin

1980: Reagan only barely wins AL and Reagan wins MA

1984: Mondale only barely wins his native MN.

1988: Michael Dukakis takes almost 55% in swing state IA

1992: Clinton wins many southern states, but not FL

1996: Clinton wins AZ, going Dem for the first time since 1948

2000: WV flips GOP

2004: W doesn't win NH again, although he wins the PV this time

2008: Obama almost wins MT.

2012: No real surprises.

2016: Trump wins OH by 8 points and IA by 10. And PA, MI and WI of course.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

1996 - as mentioned, Arizona

2000 - West Virginia. A lot of people always say if Gore won FL/TN/NH he would have won, but it's also true for WV and he ignored it (like how Clinton ignored Iowa in 2016). If he would've carried a state that had only gone red in the 3 GOP landslides (1956, 1972, 1984) since 1932 he would have won

2004 - Hawaii was super close and the polls were even closer. Bush actually led in quite a few polls

2008 - as mentioned, Indiana

2012 - North Carolina for being so close, it was clear Romney was done when N.C. took so long to call

2016 - Pennsylvania. Trump won this state by brute force. People can point out how Michigan and Wisconsin were surprises but Clinton actually just did terrible there. However, she did all she needed to do in Pennsylvania - held the convention there; did many rallies; had a huge GOTV/ground game; got the votes she needed in Philly and Pittsburgh; and ran tons of ads. Trump STILL beat her and convincingly too. So pretty much there was nothing she could have done to win PA unlike in MI and WI.

Romney did better than Trump in Wisconsin but lost - but Trump's pure power in Pennsylvania was incredible. It was the same in Florida too - she did everything she needed to do but Trump had ungodly turnout. Was Clinton doomed from the start?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

1960: California.  It was Nixon's home state, yet was originally given to Kennedy before absentee votes were counted.
1964: None
1968: either Washington for going to Humphrey after Nixon got it in 1960 (Maine is easily explained by Muskie on the ticket), or Arkansas for going to Wallace after electing a pro-civil rights GOP governor over two segregationist Democrats
1972: Massachusetts.  I would've thought that there were enough Rockefeller Republicans to tip the state to Nixon.
1976: tie between Wisconsin and Ohio, where Ford seemed like a good fit but lost, or Iowa, where he was a great fit but only barely won
1980: Maryland, for going to Carter and then Bush 1 in 1988
1988: Iowa.  If it weren't for the farming depression Bush would've gotten it easily.
1992: Montana.  It's a pretty conservative state and I can't imagine Clinton being a good fit there.  Vermont and New Hampshire were still R-leaning, but moving left, so those weren't quite as big a shock in hindsight.
1996: Arizona.  How did Clinton manage to be the only Democrat since 1952 to get this state in a presidential contest?
2000: Oregon, for being so close.  Bush probably would've gotten it if it weren't for the early call of Florida.
2004: None of them were too surprising, but Wisconsin is probably the best guess for largely the same reason as Oregon 2000; Bush losing in a state he most likely would've carried against Gore without the early Florida call.
2008: Indiana, although it's easily explained by high black turnout in Gary and a spillover favorite son effect from Chicago.  North Carolina had 20 straight years of D governors and Virginia was already trending left, so those weren't huge surprises.  NE-2 was a bit of a surprise too.
2012: Nevada.  I thought that the Mormon vote would've offset any D edge with Hispanics.
2016: tie between Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which I expected to go heavily D because of wealthy suburbanites deserting the GOP in faster numbers than they already were(although honestly, it surprised me that Trump got any Obama states at all.)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump STILL beat her and convincingly too.

Less than 1 point without crossing 50 percent is beating someone convincingly?

[Xing]

1992 - Maine. It had been a stalwart Republican state up to that point, and yet Clinton won by 8.5%, and Bush actually got third place.

1996 - Arizona seems to be the obvious choice here.

2000 - West Virginia, especially since it wasn't even particularly close.

2004 - Bush's margin in Florida was pretty surprising. Otherwise, nothing was that big of a shock.

2008 - Indiana was the most surprising in terms of who won the state, but the closeness of Montana, as well as Obama's blowout wins in states like Nevada and Wisconsin were pretty shocking.

2012 - Not many big surprises here, though Obama did win Colorado by much more than people expected.

2016 - Michigan or Wisconsin in terms of who won them, but the margin in Iowa was surprising, as was the closeness of Maine.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

2000 - West Virginia, especially since it wasn't even particularly close.

IIRC, Bush only got it by about 3.5 percent.  And even then, it's not that big a shock in hindsight.  West Virginia is very socially conservative and the GOP saw a golden opportunity to build in the state based on that and the perceived hostility of Democrats toward the coal industry. 

Karl Rove said in his memoirs that he became convinced early on that Bush could get West Virginia because of this, and reminded the campaign that they would already be going up with ads in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and that ad buys in the rest of the state would be relatively cheap.  (This, and not racism, is the main reason why most of Appalachia moved so hard R against Obama.)  In short, Karl Rove did for West Virginia what he did for Texas--taking a conservative, yet Democrat-leaning state, and slowly but surely turning it into a GOP stronghold.  Given, WV isn't quite there yet (they still have Manchin and a few other statewide elected Ds, I think), but if the current trends continue, it will get there.

[mianfei]

Thoughts for each election over the past century:

• 1916: Ohio – Wilson won by nine percent in a state that had not given a Democratic majority since the GOP was founded
• 1920: Tennessee – Even with the rock-ribbed Republican east, Harding’s ability to carry a state that was three-fifths or so “Solid South” is surprising since many previous GOP candidates had been competitive but never looked like winning
• 1924: the Dakotas – In an election with little that was unexpected, La Follette was strongly expected to win these states but Coolidge held them
• 1928: Texas – Hoover became the first ever Republican victor after Davis had won 73.70 percent. Amazingly, Hoover did it whilst losing some of the main GOP base in the German counties to anti-Prohibition voting!
• 1932: Delaware – Hoover held a highly industrial state with a Democratic history and where John W. Davis had done 8 percent better than his national figure
• 1936: Minnesota – how did FDR win a traditional GOP state by over 30 percent with few public works projects and with potential vote losses due to the easing of the early 1930s farm crisis?
• 1940: Colorado – Willkie won a state with strong influence from FDR‘s western public works
• 1944: Maryland – Dewey got within 3.70 percent of winning a traditionally Democratic state, and with potential losses from the state’s substantial German population
• 1948: Massachusetts – Northeasterner Dewey lost by eleven percent here when he swept the rest of the Northeast
• 1952: South Carolina – in a state where no “GOP” nominee had received over 7 percent since the turn of the century, Eisenhower managed to win almost 50 percent
• 1956: Missouri going to Stevenson amidst Eisenhower’s wooing of the South – despite a significant drought in the Plains, the state’s southern character ought to have kept it GOP
• 1960: Hawaii – historically Yankee and Republican, Kennedy managed to carry the state against expectations
• 1964: Alaska – Johnson won this state with a bigger margin than the nation, despite evidence even then of a Republican trend
• 1968: Texas – a liberal Northern Democrat managed to hold the traditionally Democratic West Texas “Bible Belt” against Southerner George Wallace sufficiently to carry the state
• 1972: Rhode Island – the most Democratic state during the 1960s with LBJ reaching over eighty percent, liberal McGovern could not even hold this state
• 1976: Iowa – Carter failed to carry this Democratic-trending state despite the presence of Walter Mondale from neighbouring Minnesota amidst a major drought and early freeze
• 1980: Massachusetts – the first Republican win in this liberal state since 1956, and by a conservative GOP faction at that
• 1984: Minnesota – even as Mondale’s home state, it was surprising it stayed with him
• 1988: Iowa – traditionally strongly Republican, it was Dukakis‘ second-best state
• 1992: New Hampshire – it was the second-most Republican state in the 1988 election, yet without an especially large Perot vote Clinton carried it in 1992
• 1996: Colorado – what did Clinton do to lose the state? Even if he lost support in the Plains, the highlands have been trending Democratic ever since McGovern
• 2000: Oregon – it had long trended Democratic except when Carter was a candidate, yet Bush could very easily have carried it due to Nader votes
• 2004: Hawaii – Bush getting within nine percent in a state that has generally been close to the most Democratic in the nation since the days of Goldwater.
• 2008: Indiana – a traditionally powerfully Republican state surprisingly went to Obama for the first time since 1964
• 2012:As hard to think of one as any election, although Obama’s gain in Alaska might be noted
• 2016: Maine – Trump getting extremely close in so liberal a Northeastern state was surprising

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Thoughts for each election over the past century:

• 1916: Ohio – Wilson won by nine percent in a state that had not given a Democratic majority since the GOP was founded
• 1920: Tennessee – Even with the rock-ribbed Republican east, Harding’s ability to carry a state that was three-fifths or so “Solid South” is surprising since many previous GOP candidates had been competitive but never looked like winning
• 1924: the Dakotas – In an election with little that was unexpected, La Follette was strongly expected to win these states but Coolidge held them
• 1928: Texas – Hoover became the first ever Republican victor after Davis had won 73.70 percent. Amazingly, Hoover did it whilst losing some of the main GOP base in the German counties to anti-Prohibition voting!
• 1932: Delaware – Hoover held a highly industrial state with a Democratic history and where John W. Davis had done 8 percent better than his national figure
• 1936: Minnesota – how did FDR win a traditional GOP state by over 30 percent with few public works projects and with potential vote losses due to the easing of the early 1930s farm crisis?
• 1940: Colorado – Willkie won a state with strong influence from FDR‘s western public works
• 1944: Maryland – Dewey got within 3.70 percent of winning a traditionally Democratic state, and with potential losses from the state’s substantial German population
• 1948: Massachusetts – Northeasterner Dewey lost by eleven percent here when he swept the rest of the Northeast
• 1952: South Carolina – in a state where no “GOP” nominee had received over 7 percent since the turn of the century, Eisenhower managed to win almost 50 percent
• 1956: Missouri going to Stevenson amidst Eisenhower’s wooing of the South – despite a significant drought in the Plains, the state’s southern character ought to have kept it GOP
• 1960: Hawaii – historically Yankee and Republican, Kennedy managed to carry the state against expectations
• 1964: Alaska – Johnson won this state with a bigger margin than the nation, despite evidence even then of a Republican trend
• 1968: Texas – a liberal Northern Democrat managed to hold the traditionally Democratic West Texas “Bible Belt” against Southerner George Wallace sufficiently to carry the state
• 1972: Rhode Island – the most Democratic state during the 1960s with LBJ reaching over eighty percent, liberal McGovern could not even hold this state
• 1976: Iowa – Carter failed to carry this Democratic-trending state despite the presence of Walter Mondale from neighbouring Minnesota amidst a major drought and early freeze
• 1980: Massachusetts – the first Republican win in this liberal state since 1956, and by a conservative GOP faction at that
• 1984: Minnesota – even as Mondale’s home state, it was surprising it stayed with him
• 1988: Iowa – traditionally strongly Republican, it was Dukakis‘ second-best state
• 1992: New Hampshire – it was the second-most Republican state in the 1988 election, yet without an especially large Perot vote Clinton carried it in 1992
• 1996: Colorado – what did Clinton do to lose the state? Even if he lost support in the Plains, the highlands have been trending Democratic ever since McGovern
• 2000: Oregon – it had long trended Democratic except when Carter was a candidate, yet Bush could very easily have carried it due to Nader votes
• 2004: Hawaii – Bush getting within nine percent in a state that has generally been close to the most Democratic in the nation since the days of Goldwater.
• 2008: Indiana – a traditionally powerfully Republican state surprisingly went to Obama for the first time since 1964
• 2012:As hard to think of one as any election, although Obama’s gain in Alaska might be noted
• 2016: Maine – Trump getting extremely close in so liberal a Northeastern state was surprising

Dole being from neighboring Kansas is most likely why he was able to narrowly carry Colorado.