day3: arizona

[Alcon]

Arizona is a tough state for Dems - they have to move libertarian, while not appearing immoral, and while maintaining Hispanic voting.  In addition, they have to make inroads in Phoenix suburbs like Mesa and Tempe (if I'm chosing the right two) that are ultra-Republican with perhaps a libertarian streak.

It's possible, but difficult, unless they start winning Maricopa County.

[Alcon]

Arizona is a tough state for Dems - they have to move libertarian, while not appearing immoral, and while maintaining Hispanic voting.  In addition, they have to make inroads in Phoenix suburbs like Mesa and Tempe (if I'm chosing the right two) that are ultra-Republican with perhaps a libertarian streak.

It's possible, but difficult, unless they start winning Maricopa County.

Isn't Mesa a Mormon stronghold?  Tempe might be easier because it has Arizona State.

Now that I'm looking at the results, it appears Mesa is very schizophrenic - some 70% Bush precincts, and then some Kerry precincts.  Tempe is pretty Democratic.

It's hard to tell because only Tempe and Mesa have precincts labeled by city; the rest of the county gives each precinct a cute name.

And, yes, Maricopa County is one hell of a longshot, which is why Arizona is.

[Alcon]

Democrats have a shot at AZ.  If the Democrats can gain back he Hispanic vote, this state could become a swing state.

I'm not sure that's going to be all that helpful, since Hispanics account for only 12% of the voters in Arizona, according to CNN exit polls.  They just don't vote.  We need to get the vote out.

Kerry won Hispanics 56%-43%.

[Alcon]

Democrats have a shot at AZ.  If the Democrats can gain back he Hispanic vote, this state could become a swing state.

I'm not sure that's going to be all that helpful, since Hispanics account for only 12% of the voters in Arizona, according to CNN exit polls.  They just don't vote.  We need to get the vote out.

Kerry won Hispanics 56%-43%.

I think the 12% figure is a bit understated don't you?  Is it possible that some say they are white?  Either way I am talking about future trends.  No one would argue that hispanics are pouring into the state.

I suppose some may, but much of the Hispanic population of Arizona is either not legal or not likely to vote.