day3: arizona

[OSR stands with Israel]

Arizona has two major trends happening:

1. Urbanization
2. Influx of disaffected, mostly middle-class white, Californians

1. will cause a Democrat shift, while 2 will cause a GOP shift.  What direction the state goes depends on the balance of these two trends.

In 2005 that seemed true because AZ was seemingly trending hard R in the 2000s but the problem was Perot was the only reason AZ was a swing state in the 1990s so the trend was misleading
Huh. Believe this at your own peril, Idaho and Montana.

[OSR stands with Israel]

That analysis would have been right if the GOP didn't trend hard lunatic right such that UMC white people bailed on the party.  So now both trends favor Democrats.

This is just bad analysis. Arizona was a hub of the Tea Party movement. SB 1070? Remember that? The issue in AZ isn't that Republicans went conservative, it's that Trump doesn't play well with suburban voters.

Yah there was a study done most tea partiers were UMC