Dems Taking the House?

[classical liberal]

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IL-19
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MI-09
MI-11
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
MI-07
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?

[classical liberal]

A poster who lives in the district has posted in another thread that the district is currently held by an entrenched encumbent.

[classical liberal]

Apparently, the encumbent has been gaining 2 points every cycle.

[classical liberal]

The incumbent won with 48 in 98, 50 in 00, and 55 in 02.

[muon2]

Are you taking into account the seats that will switch from D to R in Texas due to redistricting?

Also I don't think IL-19 will be in play. In 2002 the race had two incumbents running against each other due to redistricting. IL-8 and IL-17 may be closer than IL-19.

[ShapeShifter]

Dems are going to take the house and the senate and Bush is going to take the White House. Deal?

[Dave from Michigan]

Michigan districts 9 and 11 aren't going to switch

[© Tweed the Younger]

Blue Dogs baby, Blue Dogs.

[Dave from Michigan]

who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

[Sibboleth]

Blue Dogs baby, Blue Dogs.

Go Dawgs! My Representative is a Blue Dog and I like it.

Who's your Representative?

[classical liberal]

who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?

[Dave from Michigan]

who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?

not really

[classical liberal]

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
MI-07
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?

[classical liberal]

who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?

not really

Is Nick Smith's old district going to be competitive now that it's an open seat (he's retiring)?

[Sibboleth]

I actually confused NC-5 and NC-10 ... although IMO both are possible Dem pickups... If they have strong, moderate/blue dawg candidates. NC-5 is a more likely D win than NC-10.
The same applies for SC-4.
---
However WA-5 is a genuine tossup... look at it's political history... person over party...

[Dave from Michigan]

Michigan 11th

McCotter 57.1%
Kelley    39.6%
others    3.1%


McCotter by almost 18%
 
this is the district I live in

Michigan 9th  

Knollenberg has been around for a while and he's not going anywhere

Joe Knollenberg 58.0%
Fink                    39.8%
 
thats 18.4%

[Dave from Michigan]

who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?

not really

Is Nick Smith's old district going to be competitive now that it's an open seat (he's retiring)?

No his son is running and even if he wasn't the democrats don't have much of a chance

[classical liberal]

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?

[Sibboleth]

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?

Add WA-5

[So the Heroes Fall]

I don't see any of the NC or SC seats being won, SC and western NC are now heavily Republican even in voter registration, SC was once the most Democratic state in the country but it's already made the transistion, the Republicans completely control the legislature, governor's mansion, most state offices and voter registration, and the area of western NC/eastern TN has alwasy been Republican, even back in the "solid south" days. So don't count on any Blue Dogs there. Besides, the districts are so far to the right, I don't see them accepting any Democrat, no matter how moderate, it's like saying a moderate Republican could win MN-5, I mean SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones University!

[Sibboleth]

I don't see any of the NC or SC seats being won, SC and western NC are now heavily Republican even in voter registration, SC was once the most Democratic state in the country but it's already made the transistion, the Republicans completely control the legislature, governor's mansion, most state offices and voter registration, and the area of western NC/eastern TN has alwasy been Republican, even back in the "solid south" days. So don't count on any Blue Dogs there. Besides, the districts are so far to the right, I don't see them accepting any Democrat, no matter how moderate, it's like saying a moderate Republican could win MN-5, I mean SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones University!

Like I said before, the collapse of the textile industry changes things... I don't see NC-10 switching... but NC-5 has taken a bit hit... The Dems won't target either... they're after NC-8 and NC-11... but upsets happen when the electorate gets angry.
SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones "University" but so what? It's a relatively ungerrymandered district... and SC as a whole ain't as GOP as it was in the '80's.

[© Tweed the Younger]

I hate the Blue Dogs, but they serve their purpose.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Why do you hate the Blue Dogs?

[Sibboleth]

Question: how did Holden manage to win in 2002?

[So the Heroes Fall]

what I heard happened was this: The Republicans put him up against Gekas figuring the fact it was a Republican district and Gekas had been around forever would lead to easy victory. However Holden had won in the past in Republican districts and knew how to run a good campaign. Gekas had never had a serious challenge for a long time and didn't know how to. Gekas basically just sat around and assumed he'd win. Holden ran a much better campaign and put an end to Gekas.