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Author Topic: Dems Taking the House?  (Read 14930 times)
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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E: 9.35, S: -8.26

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« on: April 30, 2004, 05:45:12 pm »
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Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IL-19
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MI-09
MI-11
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
MI-07
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2004, 06:14:04 pm »
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A poster who lives in the district has posted in another thread that the district is currently held by an entrenched encumbent.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2004, 08:11:17 pm »
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Apparently, the encumbent has been gaining 2 points every cycle.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2004, 08:12:07 pm by RightWingNut »Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
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« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2004, 08:31:36 pm »
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The incumbent won with 48 in 98, 50 in 00, and 55 in 02.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
muon2
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2004, 08:51:37 pm »
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Are you taking into account the seats that will switch from D to R in Texas due to redistricting?

Also I don't think IL-19 will be in play. In 2002 the race had two incumbents running against each other due to redistricting. IL-8 and IL-17 may be closer than IL-19.
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2004, 09:12:23 pm »
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Dems are going to take the house and the senate and Bush is going to take the White House. Deal?
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2004, 09:39:46 pm »
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Michigan districts 9 and 11 aren't going to switch
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tweed
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« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2004, 09:43:18 pm »
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Blue Dogs baby, Blue Dogs.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2004, 09:45:47 pm »
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who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2004, 10:23:39 am »
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Blue Dogs baby, Blue Dogs.

Go Dawgs! My Representative is a Blue Dog and I like it.

Who's your Representative?
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classical liberal
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2004, 11:21:35 am »
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who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2004, 11:25:34 am »
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who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?


not really
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classical liberal
RightWingNut
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E: 9.35, S: -8.26

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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2004, 11:29:09 am »
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Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
MI-07
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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E: 9.35, S: -8.26

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« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2004, 11:31:31 am »
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who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?

not really

Is Nick Smith's old district going to be competitive now that it's an open seat (he's retiring)?
« Last Edit: May 01, 2004, 11:38:38 am by RightWingNut »Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
Sibboleth
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« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2004, 11:41:16 am »
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I actually confused NC-5 and NC-10 Sad... although IMO both are possible Dem pickups... If they have strong, moderate/blue dawg candidates. NC-5 is a more likely D win than NC-10.
The same applies for SC-4.
---
However WA-5 is a genuine tossup... look at it's political history... person over party...
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2004, 11:42:51 am »
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Michigan 11th

McCotter 57.1%
Kelley    39.6%
others    3.1%


McCotter by almost 18%
 
this is the district I live in

Michigan 9th  

Knollenberg has been around for a while and he's not going anywhere

Joe Knollenberg 58.0%
Fink                    39.8%
 
thats 18.4%


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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2004, 11:47:43 am »
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who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?

not really

Is Nick Smith's old district going to be competitive now that it's an open seat (he's retiring)?

No his son is running and even if he wasn't the democrats don't have much of a chance
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classical liberal
RightWingNut
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Posts: 1761


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

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« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2004, 12:08:12 pm »
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Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
Sibboleth
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« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2004, 12:13:19 pm »
Ignore

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?


Add WA-5
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #19 on: May 01, 2004, 12:29:52 pm »
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I don't see any of the NC or SC seats being won, SC and western NC are now heavily Republican even in voter registration, SC was once the most Democratic state in the country but it's already made the transistion, the Republicans completely control the legislature, governor's mansion, most state offices and voter registration, and the area of western NC/eastern TN has alwasy been Republican, even back in the "solid south" days. So don't count on any Blue Dogs there. Besides, the districts are so far to the right, I don't see them accepting any Democrat, no matter how moderate, it's like saying a moderate Republican could win MN-5, I mean SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones University!
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2004, 12:35:10 pm »
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I don't see any of the NC or SC seats being won, SC and western NC are now heavily Republican even in voter registration, SC was once the most Democratic state in the country but it's already made the transistion, the Republicans completely control the legislature, governor's mansion, most state offices and voter registration, and the area of western NC/eastern TN has alwasy been Republican, even back in the "solid south" days. So don't count on any Blue Dogs there. Besides, the districts are so far to the right, I don't see them accepting any Democrat, no matter how moderate, it's like saying a moderate Republican could win MN-5, I mean SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones University!

Like I said before, the collapse of the textile industry changes things... I don't see NC-10 switching... but NC-5 has taken a bit hit... The Dems won't target either... they're after NC-8 and NC-11... but upsets happen when the electorate gets angry.
SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones "University" but so what? It's a relatively ungerrymandered district... and SC as a whole ain't as GOP as it was in the '80's.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
tweed
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« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2004, 01:06:07 pm »
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I hate the Blue Dogs, but they serve their purpose.
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in a mirror, dimly lit
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« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2004, 01:08:02 pm »
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Why do you hate the Blue Dogs?
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2004, 02:23:52 pm »
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Question: how did Holden manage to win in 2002?
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #24 on: May 01, 2004, 03:08:43 pm »
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what I heard happened was this: The Republicans put him up against Gekas figuring the fact it was a Republican district and Gekas had been around forever would lead to easy victory. However Holden had won in the past in Republican districts and knew how to run a good campaign. Gekas had never had a serious challenge for a long time and didn't know how to. Gekas basically just sat around and assumed he'd win. Holden ran a much better campaign and put an end to Gekas.
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