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Author Topic: Dems Taking the House?  (Read 14299 times)
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« Reply #25 on: May 01, 2004, 03:21:03 pm »
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Question: how did Holden manage to win in 2002?

I have to say total Republican overconfidence. Now he has to defeat the son of Joe Paterno who just won a multi-way GOP primary with 27% of the vote. I think he'll do it, however. It is amazing since this district is so overwhelmingly Republican.

It was the one House result that really stunned me... most of the other upsets were at least semi-predictable (eg: GA-12)...
Thanks for explaining
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« Reply #26 on: May 01, 2004, 05:29:33 pm »
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Question: how did Holden manage to win in 2002?

I have to say total Republican overconfidence. Now he has to defeat the son of Joe Paterno who just won a multi-way GOP primary with 27% of the vote. I think he'll do it, however. It is amazing since this district is so overwhelmingly Republican.

It was the one House result that really stunned me... most of the other upsets were at least semi-predictable (eg: GA-12)...
Thanks for explaining


He is a hard worker and was on hand when Bush came to the district to campaign for Specter. He was the only Democrat there but even the president acknowledged him (which got cut from the Specter campaign commercial, of course). He was also on hand when Kerry came to the district a few days later. He can move in both major-party circles.

Here's a seat that may be in GRAVE danger for the Dems- (PA-13).  I'm thinking Schwartz will in the end pull it off, but Torsella would have won it handily.  Schwartz v. Brown is the worst case scenario for the Dems.  Reason being Brown is actually somewhat popular because of ther attacks on Section 8 housing.  Most Northeast Philly residents dislike Section 8.  Torsella would have neutralized her ont his easily.  Here's my analysis:

In favor of Schwartz:
-  History of effectiveness in state Senate
-  Backing of Fumo/Tartaglione/Unions
-  Poll taken of district shows district very unhappy with Bush

In favor of Brown:
-  Section 8 (could be negated or blown up in her face)
-  Looks (While I agree with her more, Schwartz looks like an old  
               wench.  Brown is not bad looking for 53)

Any others?  A paper dubbed this "Battle of the Soccer Moms".  Should be interesting!
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« Reply #27 on: May 01, 2004, 06:02:52 pm »
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well if Brown wins, then hopefully Torsella can take her out in 2006.
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« Reply #28 on: May 01, 2004, 08:08:14 pm »
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well if Brown wins, then hopefully Torsella can take her out in 2006.

Not saying it's doubtful, if Torsella won it would be D BRD.  With Schwartz I'll go NCF/D BOP.  Like I said there is dissatisafction about Bush, economy sucks, lot of New Deal seniors in NE that went through WWII that don't want their grandkids going.  Schwartz's success is contingent on these factors.  Problem is solely Section 8 housing which Brown seems to be hiting the right buttons on depite the Northeast's working class roots.  I'll give you a brief lesson on what's going on with regards to Section 8:

HUD gives people on welfare rent money towards a home.  Many homes in Northeast Philly run about 70-100K for row homes and about 130-180K for twins.  A lot of people have trouble selling their homes for a decent price and figure they are better off letting a Section 8(HUD) tenant take over than selling the house.  Then starts a "white flight" domino effect.  

In 2002, Melissa Brown ran a nasty campaign against current Rep. Joe Hoeffel painting him as being in bed with John Street.  She handed out racially divisive fliers stating this.  I think Section 8 housing is a raw deal to us who work, but I do not want to see Brown get the seat.  If anyone else can add to this feel free.
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« Reply #29 on: May 01, 2004, 08:23:38 pm »
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Where are the home bases for Schwartz, Torsella, and Brown?

Did Borski consider running for his old district?
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« Reply #30 on: May 01, 2004, 08:35:32 pm »
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Where are the home bases for Schwartz, Torsella, and Brown?

Did Borski consider running for his old district?

Torsella was from Northeast Philly, but now lives in Flourtown.  Melissa Brown also lives in Flourtown.  It's right off the PA Turnpike exit 339 on rte. 309.  Schwartz is from the Mount Airy section of Philly, but bought a condo in Jenkintown to quell residency controversy.  Borski conceded to Hoeffel before the 2002 primary b/c the a-hole Republicans in the state house gerrymandered the district so that Borski would win the primary but lose the general.  Hoeffel had the better chance and therefore won.  Montgomery Co. is getting much more Dem and I think Schwartz will pull it off.  Speaking of Borski, a guy in many of my classes dated his daughter Darci who played for the Philadelphia Charge.
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« Reply #31 on: May 01, 2004, 08:48:57 pm »
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I'd still lean this seat toward Schwartz, just because Kerry will win by a wide margin, so Brown can't campaign the way pretty much all Republicans do, by basically saying they're a total rubber stamp for Bush's agenda. Gore got 56%, Kerry could easily top 60%
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« Reply #32 on: May 01, 2004, 09:15:00 pm »
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Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
VA-04
WA-05
WA-08
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
MI-07
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04


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« Reply #33 on: May 01, 2004, 09:35:44 pm »
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I'd still lean this seat toward Schwartz, just because Kerry will win by a wide margin, so Brown can't campaign the way pretty much all Republicans do, by basically saying they're a total rubber stamp for Bush's agenda. Gore got 56%, Kerry could easily top 60%

I'm from the district, I know what her tactics will be and how people will react.  Still think Schwartz will win, but stay tuned for "Battle of the Soccer Moms."  It is definitely in play because of Section 8.  A lot of Kerry/Dem voters are angry at that particular issue.
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« Reply #34 on: May 01, 2004, 09:38:41 pm »
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I don't see any of the NC or SC seats being won, SC and western NC are now heavily Republican even in voter registration, SC was once the most Democratic state in the country but it's already made the transistion, the Republicans completely control the legislature, governor's mansion, most state offices and voter registration, and the area of western NC/eastern TN has alwasy been Republican, even back in the "solid south" days. So don't count on any Blue Dogs there. Besides, the districts are so far to the right, I don't see them accepting any Democrat, no matter how moderate, it's like saying a moderate Republican could win MN-5, I mean SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones University!

SC-04 is on the list because DeMint is retiring.  SC isn't nearly as Republican as is once was.  Nixon won it with 71%, Bush-II won it with 57%.  That's a loss of 14% for the GOP over 28 years, 2 points per year.
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« Reply #35 on: May 01, 2004, 09:52:08 pm »
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You're comparing a landslide victory year to one where the Democrats won a plurality. In 1972 Nixon won it by 11 points over his national results, Bush did it with 9 points over, a barely discernable difference.

Besides the district in question is upstate which is very Republican, the downstate is where the Democrats can do well and why they can win statewide races, that's why Tenenbaum can win, however it's very unlikely she would win in SC-4, even if she wasn't facing DeMint.
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« Reply #36 on: May 02, 2004, 12:00:48 am »
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SC-04 was moved to the East by like 2 counties.  Now that it'll be an open seat, the Democratic Counties that were added will make it competitive IMHO.
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« Reply #37 on: May 02, 2004, 05:23:45 am »
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SC-4 is part of the textile belt... and is ungerrymandered.

If Edwards is on the Presidential ticket, you'll probably see a load of Piedmont Dems voting for the first time in...
I'd say that the GOP have the advantage in SC-4 but it's not certain... and the Dems do have a chance.
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« Reply #38 on: May 02, 2004, 12:35:06 pm »
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Two of the counties that were moved out of the disrtict went to Bush with 80%, two of the counties added went to Gore with 55% and 65% respectively.  That's a significant substitution.  Considering that the multi-term incumbent lost 10% of his support from 2000 in 2002, even when the election was during the build up to war, now that the seat is empty I think that it will be quite competitive.
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« Reply #39 on: May 02, 2004, 12:48:57 pm »
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I lived in that CD for over 15 years (moved in 2001) and I think the incumbent is unbelievably vulnerable given the length of time she has held the seat. Her opponent is no liberal Democrat (he was a Republican until the abortion issue made him decide to switch parties 20 years ago) and he is currently the President pro tem of the NM Senate. If he can raise the $$$ he has a great chance to unseat her. He only lost last time because of the overwhelming Republican numbers in the absentee ballots.

Being the poster from the district who said the Dems aren't gonna take the district...I still stand by that prediction. Yes, Heather Wilson is no Steve Schiff (who took a highly competitive district and punked the Dems in every race after the first one) but she's been strong enough to gain % every election. As for Richard Romero, her opponent...if he couldn't pull it off in 02, when the Greens finally stopped running spoiler candidates, he won't do it in 04. And being pro-choice is not necessarily a positive in this district - as I posted in another thread some time back, the usually Democratic 'Old' Hispanic voters here are more Populist than Liberal - there are definitely social conservative strains in the population (see the numbers on gay marriage I posted in some thread a while back - there isn't even a majority for civil unions, much less gay marriage).

And the overwheming edge in absentee ballots will continue this year as well - for those of you not from NM, starting in about 94 the Reps shifted to massive absentee balloting following a change in the state law in order to 'lock in' Rep votes ahead of Election Day. It has worked very well for them, and as I have also stated somewhere else Smiley the Dems, instead of copying it, have spent the last 10 years whining about it and trying to change the law (which they finally did in 2003 once a Dem was governor again). But I expect the Reps to hold their edge - they are very good about voting, whereas the Dems have a considerable number of 'on paper only' voters (go read Vorlon's posts on registered vs. likely voters for the reasons for that) and even given that Dem candidates are so popular in Dem-controlled counties that the dead rise out of their graves to go vote for them Wink it's not enough in NM-01.

Adding to that is, IMHO, the slow decrease in Dem registration and especially in voting tendencies in CD-01 (back in 2001 the vote tendencies were 50-50 while the Dems held the registration edge by a fair margin) will gradually hamper Dem efforts. In Albuquerque (the heart of CD-01) I have noticed that the older Dem areas have lost population while the newer marginal and Rep areas have gained...according to a City study I found it is because people moved from multi-family housing (read: apartments, townhouses, etc.) in the old areas to single-family homes in the newer areas...and apparently they have become more conservative in the process, judging by the registration and voting numbers in the new growth precincts. This process continues today...

If Romero had run in 98, he might have won...but not now. I was actually surprised by how solid Wilson's margin was in 02 but she appears to have won the Decline-To-State voters and incumbency counts...and on a final note: for such a competitive district the Reps sure have found ways to hold on to it for a loooooooooooong time! Tongue
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« Reply #40 on: May 02, 2004, 09:31:24 pm »
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The Albuquerque suburbs are not developed enough to start liberalizing.  The age of a suburb in the current day determines its liberal tendency.  The older a suburb, the more liberal it is.  New suburbs include people who are worried about taxes and excessive government spending since they have money but haven't had it long enough to start feeling guilty about it.  The moderate republican areas will become increasingly liberal as time passes.  The Chicago suburbs seems to be retaining conservatism a bit longer than other areas, the middle suburbs IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-13, WI-01, and IN-02 are a bit more conservative than the middle suburbs of NYC, DC, or LA.  The whiteness may be a major contributor to the moderation of the pace there though.  In Albuquerque, the rate of LA relative to the cities growth is probably a good model.
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« Reply #41 on: May 03, 2004, 12:06:10 am »
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The Albuquerque suburbs are not developed enough to start liberalizing.  The age of a suburb in the current day determines its liberal tendency.  The older a suburb, the more liberal it is.  New suburbs include people who are worried about taxes and excessive government spending since they have money but haven't had it long enough to start feeling guilty about it.  The moderate republican areas will become increasingly liberal as time passes.  The Chicago suburbs seems to be retaining conservatism a bit longer than other areas, the middle suburbs IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-13, WI-01, and IN-02 are a bit more conservative than the middle suburbs of NYC, DC, or LA.  The whiteness may be a major contributor to the moderation of the pace there though.  In Albuquerque, the rate of LA relative to the cities growth is probably a good model.

Hmmm...due to aggressive annexing by Albuquerque, you don't have many real 'suburbs'. But it's true that the areas around Albuquerque - Rio Rancho and Placitas in the north, Los Ranchos de Albuquerque in the center, the East Mountain Communities in the east, and Belen, Los Lunas, and areas surrounding them in the south - have trended Republican to varying extents. And the cultural conservatism of NM may counteract the liberalization to an extent - rich liberals tend to live in the Downtown-Nob Hill areas (look at a map of Albuquerque and it's pretty much the area a few blocks north and south of Central Avenue, from the river almost all the east to the mountains...) in Albuquerque, or else move to Santa Fe and Taos. And could you please clarify your last sentence...I don't (yawn) think I'm understanding it at the moment...
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« Reply #42 on: May 03, 2004, 09:59:19 pm »
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I'm saying that the Albuquerque suburbs will follow a similar liberalization trend to those of LA, w.r.t. the growth of the subrubs of course.
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« Reply #43 on: May 03, 2004, 11:04:02 pm »
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I'm saying that the Albuquerque suburbs will follow a similar liberalization trend to those of LA, w.r.t. the growth of the subrubs of course.

Well, it hasn't happened yet...Rio Rancho has made Sandoval County more conservative, and Valencia County is becoming much less Democratic/liberal. I guess we'll find out...
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« Reply #44 on: May 04, 2004, 10:27:02 pm »
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WMS- the one thing that will save Heather is the fact that she and Pete have brought more bogus govenment jobs to NM. I lived in Albuquerque for 15 years and while I loved living there for the climate and the lovely surroundings, I worked in the private sector and it was tough! There is as much opportunity in Mississippi! I still believe Romero has a shot.
Yep, they're awfully good at bringing home the bacon...and boy, does NM suck off the government's teats! Most money per capita of any state! Soooooooooooooeeeeee! Wink Ah, Albuquerque has kept growing, you know...a bit more infill these days, what with the damn socialists on the City Council, but still growing. Smiley Yes, Albuquerque has a good climate (if you like dry) and it is pretty (just ignore all the beer bottles tossed on the sides of every road), but as you've pointed out it comes with a price. The NM private sector really, truly, sucks the big one...it is NOT a business-friendly environment. I bet Mississippi actually has more opportunity for entrepreneurs! Well, Romero may have a shot...but I think Heather will win again. If Romero had run in 1998...
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« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2004, 12:41:35 pm »
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The Albuquerque suburbs are not developed enough to start liberalizing.  The age of a suburb in the current day determines its liberal tendency.  The older a suburb, the more liberal it is.  New suburbs include people who are worried about taxes and excessive government spending since they have money but haven't had it long enough to start feeling guilty about it.  The moderate republican areas will become increasingly liberal as time passes.  The Chicago suburbs seems to be retaining conservatism a bit longer than other areas, the middle suburbs IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-13, WI-01, and IN-02 are a bit more conservative than the middle suburbs of NYC, DC, or LA.  The whiteness may be a major contributor to the moderation of the pace there though.  In Albuquerque, the rate of LA relative to the cities growth is probably a good model.

Could you also include the Philly suburbs in the "liberalization" process?  I'm looking at PA-6 and possibly PA-8 .  My fear is PA-13, my district turning conservative because the city side is moer conservative than ever.
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« Reply #46 on: May 13, 2004, 03:22:47 am »
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Absolutely no current republican AZ seats will go democratic.  Our republican congressmen are well liked, especially Renzi, the one who is in the competitive district.  Our dem governor Napalitano is in shambles right now over the gas situation and the hostage crisis.  Whereas the rest of the country blames the problem on Bush, we blame it on our Dem gov because we had a problem earlier in the year with gas.  And she vowed to have the problem under control, but the prices rose, and very high.  This does not bode well for "Nappy" nor any democrats running in AZ.  Bush will win by about 10pts here, and Renzi will be here still as well.
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« Reply #47 on: May 13, 2004, 07:22:57 pm »
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   Not all older suburbs are liberal. The suburbs that have become liberal are also the sububs that have had the most chaneg in terms of racial and economic demographics. While prices in Sacramento have shot up 100% since 2000 for home in its suburbs, the racial and economic demographics of its older suburbs(CA-3) have largely remained the same in the last 20 years, the GOP performance isint quite what it was in the 80s, but still its solid Republican, and the old Sacramento suburbs almost went 70& for the recall last fall. Here in Columbus, the older suburbs are still pretty solidly Republican as well, what moved Columbus area towrds parity in national elections is a record high black turnout and a bigger liberal element in its urban core.
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« Reply #48 on: May 14, 2004, 03:32:37 am »
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   Not all older suburbs are liberal. The suburbs that have become liberal are also the sububs that have had the most chaneg in terms of racial and economic demographics. While prices in Sacramento have shot up 100% since 2000 for home in its suburbs, the racial and economic demographics of its older suburbs(CA-3) have largely remained the same in the last 20 years, the GOP performance isint quite what it was in the 80s, but still its solid Republican, and the old Sacramento suburbs almost went 70& for the recall last fall. Here in Columbus, the older suburbs are still pretty solidly Republican as well, what moved Columbus area towrds parity in national elections is a record high black turnout and a bigger liberal element in its urban core.

Voting trends in suburbs can be very interesting...
For an example... Vancouver:

Which has an insane amount of very different suburbs...
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« Reply #49 on: May 16, 2004, 01:08:28 am »
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I just went through and found that if there were no gerrymandering, the house would be D-R-I 215-213-7.
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