Katrina question...

[Moooooo]

Do they have ballpark figure for how many have died thus far?

[TheresNoMoney]

Don't think anybody does. Heard on the radio an hour ago that there is a conservative estimate of 10,000+ just in Louisiana.

There will likely be much more than that when all is said and done.

[Storebought]

Until actual coroners and their actuaries show up, any number spouted off now is just speculation and demogoguery.

[Moooooo]

This is kind of a shallow question to ask right now, but do you think this will effect the 2006 and even 2008 elections?  The demographics in LA, MS, AL, are obviously going to change.

[TheresNoMoney]

Probably not.

[dazzleman]

This is kind of a shallow question to ask right now, but do you think this will effect the 2006 and even 2008 elections?  The demographics in LA, MS, AL, are obviously going to change.

I don't think this will change voting patterns.  Republicans will blame the Democratic local and state government for the poor response, and Democrats will blame the Bush administration.  Nobody has to alter their previous opinions at all.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Don't think anybody does. Heard on the radio an hour ago that there is a conservative estimate of 10,000+ just in Louisiana.

There will likely be much more than that when all is said and done.

I really hope that's way too high of an estimate.

[Moooooo]

I don't think this will change voting patterns.  Republicans will blame the Democratic local and state government for the poor response, and Democrats will blame the Bush administration.  Nobody has to alter their previous opinions at all.

Im thinking more along the lines of people not returning to New Orleans.  W/O New Orleans, LA is about as solid for Republicans as Utah.

[dazzleman]

I don't think this will change voting patterns.  Republicans will blame the Democratic local and state government for the poor response, and Democrats will blame the Bush administration.  Nobody has to alter their previous opinions at all.

Im thinking more along the lines of people not returning to New Orleans.  W/O New Orleans, LA is about as solid for Republicans as Utah.

I think most people will return to New Orleans, or at least remain in the area.  I really don't see much of a change in the demographics.  The people who evacuated New Orleans aren't going to disappear.  Even if they go to other states, I don't think it changes the balance whereby the typical Republican candidate gets 55-60% of the vote in a normal presidential election.

[Alcon]

I don't think this will change voting patterns.  Republicans will blame the Democratic local and state government for the poor response, and Democrats will blame the Bush administration.  Nobody has to alter their previous opinions at all.

Im thinking more along the lines of people not returning to New Orleans.  W/O New Orleans, LA is about as solid for Republicans as Utah.

Not hardly.  Removing New Orleans from the state just would make it go from 57% to 61% Bush.

[A18]

Actually, 10,000 isn't that bad for a parish of 460,000 people.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Actually, 10,000 isn't that bad for a parish of 460,000 people.

Compassionate conservative.

[A18]

I just thought it would be more. Obviously hopefully it's less.

[Alcon]

Actually, 10,000 isn't that bad for a parish of 460,000 people.

Compassionate conservative.

He didn't say that isn't bad, he said it isn't as bad as he expected.  Seriously, for once in your life, shut up, man.

[they don't love you like i love you]

suburban New Orleans is one of the main sources of Republican strength, so it being knocked out too means things will probably be a wash. In the end I doubt there very few people will permanently relocate out of state.

[J. J.]

I've only heard of about 20 in NOLA, reported.  It was 120 in Mississippi this afternoon.  I would expect it to be in the thousands.

You've got to remember that 400,000-500,000 were evacuated prior to Katrina hitting, from NOLA.

[Jake]

Contrary to what dazzleman and BRTD are saying, I expect a large number of people to stay out of state. Mostly those that have the means to move away, will leave for good. For those that don't, a expect a commerical area will be built, not necessarily where New Orleans was, but someone up the Mississippi where the new residential area is safe from this type of flooding. New Orleans will remain a tourist and industrial area with a massive port as before, the only change will be the movement of a couple hundred thousand people to a new city up the Mississippi River. As to how this will affect voting patterns, I doubt we'll see much of an effect until redistricting takes account of around 100,000 people choosing a new state to reside in.

[Brandon H]

New Orleans alone will be in the hundreds, possibly a thousand. St. Bernard has much less people but will be in the hundreds. Ditto for Plaquemines. I think there will be some people who evacuated who will not return. I have evacuated St. Bernard and am now in Baton Rouge. Others are in Lafayette or Shreveport or wherever. I am not sure if I want to move back to St. Bernard when things have recovered as I do not want to go through this again. So I think many will stay in the state, but when it comes time to redistrict the Congressional Districts, things will be interesting. Right now, CD-2 is mainly just New Orleans. CD-3 is St. Bernard and Plaquemines as well as the entire eastern half of the Southern Coast.

I think Louisiana will still have 7 CD's, maybe 6, in 2010 but will be arranged much differently and will still lean Republican for 2008. Our Congressmen and Senators are doing a good job and this should help their chances. I could even consider voting for Mary Landreui right now. Bush can't run again in 2008, so it's not like people will need to look at this and decide whether to re-elect Bush.

[J. J.]

The Mississippi death toll is now expected to excede 1000.