George W. Bush v. Al Gore, 2004

[© tweed]

The rematch -- Gore runs again in 2004 and easily wins the nomination.

He chooses Bill Graham of Florida as his running mate, because he's now obsessed with winning Florida, so to speak.

What would maps look like?

[M]

Do you mean Billy Graham of North Carolina (unlikely for many reasons), Bob Graham of Florida, or Bill Nelson of Florida?

[Ben.]

Very interesting race.

The question would be however… would the Gore who opts to run again in 2004 be the same politician who’s didn’t run and who’s rhetoric shifted to the left, would he be more like the pragmatic and inventive moderate vice president Gore or would he be the populist presidential candidate redux?

Either way an interesting race. 

Though I think Gore might have picked Edwards, as he nearly did in 2000 for the same reasons Kerry did.

[© tweed]

I meant Bob Graham, obviously.

--

I think Gore would have run with the same populist battle cry he employed in 2000, only a little more fiery.  His sharp criticism of Bush in 2003-4 was a result of him not being a candidate.

That said, I think he still loses, although it's closer than Kerry v Bush.



Gore loses Ohio by 78 votes, and soon thereafter slips into depression.

[jokerman]

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The rematch -- Gore runs again in 2004 and easily wins the nomination.

He chooses Bill Graham of Florida as his running mate, because he's now obsessed with winning Florida, so to speak.

If I were he, I'd be more obsessed with winning Tennessee.

[True Democrat]

Almost the exact same map:

[Ronald Reagan]

Gore - 322
Bush - 216

This map is favoring Gore.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Bush/Cheney: 53.2% 380EV
Gore/Dean: 45.8% 158EV

If Gore's bitter behavor as an '04 candidate was the same as he was as a non-candidate, no chance for him at all.  I see Gore choising Dean (as Dean does not run at all for the nomination), making the ticket even worse for Gore.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Gore - 322
Bush - 216

This map is favoring Gore.

Gore also takes Tennessee in such a scenario.

[© tweed]

Bush/Cheney: 53.2% 380EV
Gore/Dean: 45.8% 158EV

If Gore's bitter behavor as an '04 candidate was the same as he was as a non-candidate, no chance for him at all.  I see Gore choising Dean (as Dean does not run at all for the nomination), making the ticket even worse for Gore.

Gore wouldn't commit electoral suicide and choose a northeastern VP.

[Lincoln Republican]

Election night 2004, the electoral vote stands at

Pres George W Bush/VP Dick Cheney                268
Former VP Al Gore/Sen Bob Graham                  259

Even with Sen Graham on the Democratic ticket, Florida wasn't even close.  Bush wins Florida by over 500,000 votes.

Missouri is too close to call with 11 EV.  There has been extremely high voting in the heavily Democratic precincts in the city of St. Louis, as well as in St. Louis county and Jackson county, resulting in making the state closer than expected.

With 100% of the Missouri precincts reporting, Bush is declared the winner of the state by a small margin, thus retaining the Presidency.

A complete state wide recount confirms Bush's win in Missouri, by 537 votes.  What?  537 votes?  This can't be!   

Al Gore is inconsolable.  The Gore campaign threatens to take the case to the courts, even to the Supreme Court if necessary. 

Ruth Bader Ginsburg is caught on tape at a social gathering saying "Gore better not come anywhere near the Supreme Court this time."

The Gore campaign decides against pursuing any legal action. 

The final tally
Pres George W Bush/VP Dick Cheney                 279
Former VP Al Gore/Sen Bob Graham                   259
   

[Defarge]

Why MO?

[George W. Hobbes]

Bush had the Big Mo.

[Lincoln Republican]

Why MO?

It fit into my numbers scenario electorally.

[True Democrat]

Honestly, I don't think it would have even been close. Instead of the election being about Kerry and gay marriage, it would have been about the poor state of the economy compared to the late 90s, and the war in Iraq. I think we would have seen a very surprising landslide much like 1980:

Because obviously Gore came close in Alabama last time.

[Speed of Sound]

Honestly, I don't think it would have even been close. Instead of the election being about Kerry and gay marriage, it would have been about the poor state of the economy compared to the late 90s, and the war in Iraq. I think we would have seen a very surprising landslide much like 1980:

Because obviously Gore came close in Alabama last time.

yeah, this map was a bit overdone, but the fact that it would be a landslide is undeniable.

[12th Doctor]

Al Gore screaming about how the president "Betrayed America", would win him more votes than Kerry?  What planet do you guys live on?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Al Gore screaming about how the president "Betrayed America", would win him more votes than Kerry?  What planet do you guys live on?

^^^^^^^^

[ATFFL]

Honestly, I don't think

True dat. 

[A18]

Honestly, I don't think it would have even been close. Instead of the election being about Kerry and gay marriage, it would have been about the poor state of the economy compared to the late 90s, and the war in Iraq. I think we would have seen a very surprising landslide much like 1980:

Congratulations on the dumbest prediction ever.

yeah, this map was a bit overdone, but the fact that it would be a landslide is undeniable.

Uh, you are a delusional joke if you think Gore would have won in a landslide.

[Speed of Sound]

Honestly, I don't think it would have even been close. Instead of the election being about Kerry and gay marriage, it would have been about the poor state of the economy compared to the late 90s, and the war in Iraq. I think we would have seen a very surprising landslide much like 1980:

Congratulations on the dumbest prediction ever.

yeah, this map was a bit overdone, but the fact that it would be a landslide is undeniable.

Uh, you are a delusional joke if you think Gore would have won in a landslide.

Honestly, if anyone believed everytime you said someone was a joke, then we would all be jokes except for you, which seems to be the exact opposite of the truth.

[© tweed]

Al Gore screaming about how the president "Betrayed America", would win him more votes than Kerry?  What planet do you guys live on?

If Gore was a candidate, he wouldn't have become a pit bull.  He wouldn't have come close to the performance illustrated by politico, but he'd have been a stronger candidate than Kerry almost certainly.

I'd say he'll draw the PV to a <1% Bush lead and cut Ohio's margin into a third of what it was, but still lose narrowly.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Honestly, I don't think it would have even been close. Instead of the election being about Kerry and gay marriage, it would have been about the poor state of the economy compared to the late 90s, and the war in Iraq. I think we would have seen a very surprising landslide much like 1980:

Agree with your basic argument but think your margin is a bit overdone. No way Bush would have gotten below 120 EVs.

[The Dowager Mod]

Gore 346
Bush 192