Day 11: Hawaii

[Alcon]

Let's take a vacation...



And for something even more beautiful (to Dems, at least):



Hawaii defies conventional wisdom in many ways;

1. Whites are, behind African-Americans, the most Democratic ethnic group.

2. The largest city in the state is also in the least Democratic county, and isn't all that Democratic itself.

3. It has a heavy bias toward incumbents, especially among the Pacific Islander population.

4. I wish I was there.

Do you think the 2004 movement was just more of the same or something substantial?  What's with Honolulu?

Discuss and enjoy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is Lewis's area methinks... but I do remember reading that Hawaii has changed from an economy reliant on plantation agriculture to one reliant on government services and tourism. What political effect has that had?

[WalterMitty]

why is the state so biased towards incumbents?

[MaC]

Let's take a vacation...




4. I wish I was there.

Strongly Agree.  Thing is with Hawaii, theyve only been a state since what? 1960? (or around that time), so it really doesn't have as much political history as let's say Michigan or Vermont.  Since the re-alignments take time, Hawaii has only really been a Democratic state.  I see no reason why that can't change a few years down the line.

[Sarnstrom]

This is the Almanac of American Politics description of Hawaii's voting:

Hawaii's presidential voting over the years has been the product of two, sometimes countervailing, forces. One is the Islands' historic preference for the Democratic party. This helps explain why Hawaii voted Democratic when few other states did in 1980 and 1988. The other is an inclination to support incumbents in a state that takes patriotism very seriously, in part because the patriotism of so many of its citizens was once unjustly questioned and in part because, in these heavily fortified Pacific islands, foreign threats may seem more menacing. This helps explain why Hawaii supported Ronald Reagan solidly in 1984 and came close to voting for Gerald Ford in 1976, though it wasn't nearly enough to help George H. W. Bush in 1992: Ross Perot's military background, and the presence of Hawaiian Orson Swindle among his top leaders, gave him 14% and helped Bill Clinton carry Hawaii 48%-37%. In 1996 and 2000, as in 1968 and 1980, both those forces were moving in the same direction, and Hawaii voted 57%-32% for Clinton and a nearly identical 56%-37% for Al Gore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

About wishing I was there, it'd be nice to visit but I wouldn't want to stay there permanently, location means that touring bands don't come there and there aren't any great record stores. No doubt lots of hot strippers though. But the clubs are probably pretty damn expensive.

[Erc]

The real question about Hawaii at the moment (at least in my view) isn't the way it votes in Presidential races...

It's the Senate.

They've got two octogenarian Senators who are going to have to go eventually.

When they go, what happens?

Who do the Democrats have lined up to replace them?  Ed Case is the obvious name that springs to mind (and I personally would love to see him in the Senate), but I can't say I can think of any others at the moment.

And what about the Republicans?  Do they have any prominent bright stars in the future (other than Linda Lingle, who's busy at the moment)?

[AkSaber]

Ah Hawaii. Absolute gorgeous place. Spent a week there in early 2003.

Could a reason the vote Democrat is because of economic reasons? I don't know how this fits, but when I was down there, I saw houses that were being sold for $450,000. And the bus driver to the Pro Bowl said he could sell his home for $900,000.

[minionofmidas]

Al - pretty spot on about the economic  changes.
As to the swing of the White vote (still solidly Republican in 1960, but never after), that's directly related. Also related to an increase in the no of White residents, I think, ie the old plantation elite was pushed to the sidelines and the new White immigrants were either retirees or military guys (but these had been there before) or tourist sector workers or hippies.
Honolulu is the most Asian part of Hawaii  least White population, least Native Hawaiian population. High Japanese and Filipino populations and almost the entire Chinese population there. Also, very high mixed race population (a very large group in Hawaii, obviously). Of course, the ancestors of most of them had come as indentured labourers, and were treated little better than slaves, in the late 19th and early 20th century. O'ahu also has most of the military presence (all that area around Pearl Harbour, NE of Honolulu.)
I think the incumbent bias is also mostly to do with navy traditions. It also seems to apply to congressional races.
Not sure about house prices but it's not as if people's standard of living was above or at US averages. (Highest in Polynesia except maybe NZ though...which is what should count I guess...)

Ah yeah, those two ancient geezers in the Senate...one Japanese, one mixed Native/Chinese. And both called Daniel K. and both born in Honolulu in 1924. You ask yourself, are these really two different persons?

[ag]

Actually, I am pretty sure Hawaii has highest standard of living in Polinesia, period. NZ is no longer much of a competition - while it was one of the three richest countries in the world in 1900, these years per capita GDP is closer to that of South Korea.  It is a poorer neighbor of Australia, and Australia is visibly poorer than most of the US.

[Q]

They've got two octogenarian Senators who are going to have to go eventually.
When they go, what happens?
Who do the Democrats have lined up to replace them?  Ed Case is the obvious name that springs to mind (and I personally would love to see him in the Senate), but I can't say I can think of any others at the moment.
And what about the Republicans?  Do they have any prominent bright stars in the future (other than Linda Lingle, who's busy at the moment)?

I would think Neil Abercrombie Ed Case would just move up from Rep to Sen when Akaka and Inouye retire.  Lingle and her Lt. Gov., Duke Aiona, would be the GOP's prominent candidates.

[jacob_101]

Ah Hawaii is a little backwards compared to the rest of the nation.  Like someone pointed out the white population voted more for Kerry than the majority population did.  Can the non white voters become Republican enough to carry the state?  I guess so, that would be something to see...

[MissCatholic]

Hawaii is the opposite to South Dakota and Montana. The later always seem to get bored of the incumbent while Hawaii tends to support them. Bush did very well in Hawaii but did not so well in SD and MT.

Hawaii will continue to vote democrat in the near future. But how long can Akaka and Inouye keep going? Could be an opportunity for republicans to pick up a senate seat.