2006 Predictions

[ian]

I'm pretty sure I saw this thread earlier, but I couldn't find it.  I realize that it's early, but here's my prediction:

Dems take MO and PA.  Repubs take MN.  That's it.
OH will be close, but I think for right now, I'll give it to DeWine.
Any other predictions?  Even if they are early?  They ARE subject to change, you know.

[nini2287]

My guess at the moment is PA flips, with MN, RI, TN, MO and OH being tossups.  Other states that will lean one direction but have the potential of flipping are NJ, WV, FL, NE, MD and WA.  Everything else should stay the same.

[Giant Saguaro]

Yeah, it's so far out and until we start seeing Mason-Dixons probably next Spring I'm not really worked up about anything. That said, I feel OH and PA are most likely to flip to the Dem side and MN is really a toss-up but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dems hang onto it. It could really go either way. If the GOPer (Kennedy, I believe) runs a good campaign, it could be a close GOP pick-up. FL is an outside shot, I still think that race will get a good deal closer than is evident now, but I have my doubts that Harris will beat Nelson, obviously. MO is close but when all is said and done that's probably a Talent win.

FL and Nebraska should present better targets for the GOP next time around.

[TheresNoMoney]

Democratic incumbents are pretty safe. The Republicans best chance to knock off an incumbent is Kent Conrad in ND (but only if Governor Hoeven runs). There are several Republican incumbents in danger, such as Santorum, Chafee, DeWine, Talent, and Conrad Burns.

Democrats have a good chance to keep the Minnesota seat. Bush is very unpopular in Minnesota (39% approval?) and Kennedy votes with Bush something like 97% of the time. He is a total Bush clone and that won't play well in Minnesota.

I won't make any predictions except that the Democrats will pick up at least one or two seats.

[TheresNoMoney]

We should be hearing an announcement from Tim Ryan in Ohio anytime now. If he runs, it instantly becomes a top tier race.

[© tweed]

GOP Pickups: Minnesota, Maryland
Dem Pickups: None (I counted Bernie in VT as a Dem)

[TheresNoMoney]

Quite the pessimist, huh Tweed?

[Joe Republic]

GOP Pickups: Minnesota, Maryland
Dem Pickups: None (I counted Bernie in VT as a Dem)

Not even Pennsylvania?

[True Democrat]

I just have this feeling that Montana will switch, call me crazy. 

[TheresNoMoney]

Montana is our 5th best pickup opportunity.

Burns is vulnerable but the Democrat will have to run an excellent campaign and borrow from the Schweitzer playbook to win.

[Moooooo]

Ill wait until the primaries have been decided or at least all of the candidates have declared.

When is the absolute latest a serious candidate will declare their candidacy?

[Frodo]

Key:

Pink -Democratic holds
Deep Red -Democratic gains

Light Blue -Republican holds
Dark Blue -Republican gains

Pale Green -Bernie Sanders, 'nuff said.

[Joe Republic]

Here you go Frodo:

[Joe Republic]

While I was fixing your map, I didn't notice that you have the Dems picking up TN, and a GOP pickup in NJ.  I'm guessing that CO was a mistake, because there is no senatorial race next year.

[Downwinder]

My prediction right now is a three seat dem gain.  From my standpoint, it could be an even greater gain, especially with the dropping approval ratings of the president and his policies, and the lackluster success of the Republicans in recruiting candidates.  However, although the Democrats are recruiting very good candidates, they aren't running on any coherent message.

States that the Republicans should have had sewn up, such as Nebraska and Florida will stay in Democrat hands, and states they had a chance at like Washington and Michigan also won't switch since there isn't a credible R candidate.  I will also add North Dakota to that list; my gut tells me that Hoeven won't run.

Open seats in Minnesota, Maryland and New Jersey won't switch parties.

But, even without a coherent Democrat message, there are a number of R states that could flip to D states.  Take your pick of three of these:

Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Ohio
Missouri
Montana

[Sarnstrom]

I will also add North Dakota to that list; my gut tells me that Hoeven won't run.

I don't think he's going to run either I think he would have announced by now.

[© tweed]

Not even Pennsylvania?

That race is going to be wicked close, but in the end Santroum finishes strong and wins by less than 1%.  I just don't see Casey beating him and holding onto a lead for 18 months.

[Frodo]

While I was fixing your map, I didn't notice that you have the Dems picking up TN, and a GOP pickup in NJ.  I'm guessing that CO was a mistake, because there is no senatorial race next year.

I changed my mind on Tennessee too.....

I forecast the GOP picking up New Jersey largely on the strength of their strongest candidate -Thomas Kean, Jr.  With Corzine likely in the governor's mansion by the beginning of next year, he will appoint a successor to his seat.  This successor will likely not be as strong a candidate as Corzine was as senator, and will be vulnerable in the mid-term election, facing the strongest candidate that Republicans can put forth -Kean, Jr.  

As to Colorado, I made a mistake there, clearly.  I was thinking more of 2008 if and when Wayne Allard retires, and Mark Udall runs for his open seat.  

[TheresNoMoney]

I will also add North Dakota to that list; my gut tells me that Hoeven won't run.

I don't think he's going to run either I think he would have announced by now.

He doesn't have to announce early. As governor, he's extremely well known and could even jump in next year and be very competitive.

The only disadvantage to declaring late for Hoeven is fundraising. I wouldn't count out him running.

I think the fact that he hasn't announced sends a signal that he is running.

[TheresNoMoney]

However, although the Democrats are recruiting very good candidates, they aren't running on any coherent message.

Well, they haven't even started campaigning yet.

I definitely feel that after the 2004 elections, the Democrats have learned their lesson and will have a clear, coherent message for the 2006 elections. I know that Howard Dean has talked about the need for a clear message repeatedly.

[Joe Republic]

I know that Howard Dean has talked about the need for a clear message repeatedly.

And yet he still hasn't produced one.

[Ben Meyers]

I think the Dems will pick up PA and OH, and MN will go GOP.  It's very possible that the Dems could also pick up RI, MO, and MT.  I'll say Dems will pick up two seats, making it:

Senate:
GOP - 53
Dem - 46
Indie - 1

[TheresNoMoney]

And yet he still hasn't produced one.

As long as there is one for the 2006 campaigns, it's all good. It's too early to do any serious campaigning anyway. That won't start until next year.

[Jake]

GOP picks up Minnesota, Democrats pick up Pennsylvania and possibly Ohio. Republicans come close in Florida and New Jersey, Democrats come close in Rhode Island and Missouri.

[Keystone Phil]

GOP picks up Minnesota, Democrats pick up Pennsylvania and possibly Ohio. Republicans come close in Florida and New Jersey, Democrats come close in Rhode Island and Missouri.

I like our chances in MN but we are better off in NJ. Dems will put up an unpopular candidate who will face a big name, strong candidate (Kean, Jr.).

Minnesota Dems will put up an average candidate against an average GOP candidate. NJ is better for us in 2006.