1968 Elections: McCarthy (D) vs. Reagan (R) vs. Wallace (I)

[Stan]

Discuss with maps!

[CathKhan]

While I think Reagan would do worse against Humphrey, this is McCarthy, the hippy candidate. Therefore, the anti-hippy vote, personified by both Reagan and Wallace, does very well in the election. Reagan probably goes the same "Silent Majority" route as Nixon. Meanwhile, Wallace is able to pick off even more of the Southern Democrat vote. With blue-collars flocking even more away from McCarthy, Reagan does very well and Wallace benefits as well.

Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Governor Jim Rhodes (R-OH) 332 electoral votes
Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN)/Senator George McGovern (D-SD) 142 electoral votes
Former Governor George Wallace (AI-AL)/Admiral Curtis LeMay (AI-CA) 64 electoral votes

[Dallasfan65]

Why does everybody assume McGovern would be McCarthy's running mate? The two didn't even get on that well.

[CathKhan]

Why does everybody assume McGovern would be McCarthy's running mate? The two didn't even get on that well.

I randomly chose a hippie politician. I couldn't think of anyone else in the three seconds I took to think of running-mates.

[Dallasfan65]

Why does everybody assume McGovern would be McCarthy's running mate? The two didn't even get on that well.

I randomly chose a hippie politician. I couldn't think of anyone else in the three seconds I took to think of running-mates.

My apologies. Pet peeve of mine.

However, I grant that the question of whom McCarthy would select as a running mate is problematic, because the premise of a McCarthy nomination itself is improbable.

Vermont Governor Philip Hoff, a firm supporter of McCarthy, is unacceptable, as is Texas Senator Ralph Yarborough, who was disliked by Johnson. Labor Secretary Willard Wirtz is probably the most acceptable to the convention, but not to Johnson.

[Thomas D]

Reagan 274-187-77

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry 2016!]

These maps are too favorable to Reagan. McCarthy was not perceived as the "hippie candidate" to the extent that McGovern was in '72; he actually had some crossover appeal to suburban Republicans and polled well against Nixon in pre-convention "trial heats". He would've done badly in the South, but so did HHH, who only carried Texas narrowly on LBJ's coattails. In addition, Reagan was less than two years into his gubernatorial term and probably at the height of his "Goldwater 2" image nationally.

I think it would have gone to the House:



Reagan 248
McCarthy 245
Wallace 45

[Jerseyrules]

Reagan was a stronger candidate than Nixon, and McCarthy was weaker than the Happy Warrior, and Ronnie might have tried for the black vote (as he briefly did in 1980) to balance out the south, so I think this would be fair.

Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / James L. Buckley (R/C-NY); 48.7% PV; 391 EV
Eugene McCarthy (DFL-MN) / Mike Gravel (D-AK); 36.7% PV; 108 EV
George Wallace (AIP-AL) / Happy Chandler (AIP-KY); 14.2% PV; 39 EV

- This is more than fair IMO