Alternate 1904 Election

[PBrunsel]

Mark Hanna, Ohio Senator and chief advisor to the late President McKinley, saw a doctor in February 1904 and was saved from a death by typhoid fever. At the height of his power and prestige, he challenged incumbent President Theodore Roosevelt for the Republican nomination for President. He ended up winning it on the 7th ballot at the GOP Convention in Chicago. His running mate was the Progressive Republican Governor of Iowa, Albert B. Cummins.

Roosevelt refused to leave office without a fight, and declared the founding of the Progressive Party. At the new party’s convention in New York City, Roosevelt was unanimously dubbed the Presidential standard bearer. Governor Robert LaFollette of Wisconsin was chosen as Vice-President.

After the nomination of Conservatives Judge Alton B. Parker of New York and former Senator Henry G. Davis of West Virginia, millionaire Representative and newspaper tycoon William Randolph Hearst left the convention, decreeing, “The sell out to the gold standard.” The Socialist Party of the United States did not want the pro-Spanish-American War Hearst as its nominee, but Hearst’s influence and money won the day over Eugene Debs, and he was paired with Dr. Francis Townsend, a controversial left-winged physician and activist from California.

What a race the 1904 election will be? Who will take the crown of the Presidency? The stuff shirted, but very wealthy, Hanna Campaign? The popular Progressive President? Could the Democrats, weakened by in-fighting between “Gold and Silver” Democrats, pull off the biggest upset in U.S. history, or could the insurgent candidacy of William Randolf Hearst somehow turn the White House Red?       

[DanielX]

With great trepidation, Hanna. None of the candidates are all that great, btw.

[A18]

Who among these supported free trade?

[PBrunsel]

Who among these supported free trade?

Alton Parker may have, but I am not sure.

[Erc]

Alton B. Parker is the only sane one of the lot.

Well, Mark Hanna's sane, but I hate him.


It is physically impossible to predict who wins this one.  Probably Hanna in the House.

[Colin]

Parker. A gold democrat and definitely perferable to the others.

[Erc]

Four candidates of note, only three of which will progress to the House vote (as both parties are split, the likelihood of a 1912-esque walkaway is incredibly unlikely).

As for how the states themselves split:

45 States--23 needed to win.

Alabama: 10 Democrats.  In all likelihood the delegation would vote for Parker, although some (Henry Clayton) might vote for Hearst, and maybe one (Wiley) might vote for Roosevelt (highly unlikely though).

Arkansas: 7 Democrats, likely for Parker.

California: 6 Republicans, 2 Democrats, 1 Democrat/Union Labor.

This is a messy one.  The delegation has a slight majority of Republicans--but Republicans that may not necessarily vote for Hanna.

The Union Labor Democrat will vote for Hearst--but who the rest will vote for is anyone's question.

It really depends on who isn't on the ballot.  If either Hearst or Hanna aren't on the ballot, Roosevelt wins easily.  If Roosevelt isn't on the ballot...can Hearst (does he have associations with California at this time?) get enough Republicans to support him?  Or does Hanna just get the Republican vote?  If Parker isn't on the ballot, then any of the remaining three could theoretically get it (but Parker's pretty much guaranteed to be on the ballot anyway).

In all likelihood, Roosevelt wins the state if he's on the ballot (and since I think Hearst is the least likely to make it through, this is probably the case).

Interesting note:  One of the Democrats became a Republican in 1921.


Colorado:

4 Republicans.  (The one Democrat stepped down from his seat in February 1904, convinced that his opponent had actually won the 1902 election in his district).

2 of the Republicans are originally from New York, 1 from Massachusetts, and 1 from Ohio.

My bet is for Hanna (even though the state itself might vote for Roosevelt).

Connecticut:

5 Republicans.

This is about as secure for Hanna as you can get.

Delaware:

Henry Aydelotte Houston, a lame-duck one-term Democrat.  Probably for Parker.

Florida:

3 Democrats, one of which fought for the Confederacy.  Parker.

Georgia:

11 Democrats.  A couple might have Hearst or Roosevelt inclinations, but this is pretty secure for Parker.

Idaho:

The 29-year-old Burton Lee French, a freshman Republican, has the deciding vote here.  With the exception of the 1914-1916 term, he'd serve continuously in the House until finally unseated in the 1932 anti-Republican wave.  Born in Indiana, moved to Nebraska at 5 and Idaho at 7.

My bet is he goes the way of the state...so in all likelihood for Roosevelt.

Illinois: 8 Democrats, 17 Republicans.

Hanna probably wins here.  Five Republicans would need to defect to make this interesting.

Indiana: 4 Democrats, 8 Republicans.

Again, probably for Hanna.  Although just two defections to Roosevelt would create a deadlock--so a Roosevelt win here is possible.

Iowa: 10 Republicans, 1 Democrat (who's a lame duck, to boot)

Hanna.

Kansas:  8 Republicans (including future Vice-President Charles Curtis)

Entirely possible that this goes to Roosevelt, but it leans Hanna.

Kentucky: 2 Republicans, 10 Democrats

To Parker, in all likelihood.

Louisiana:  7 Democrats

Probably Parker.

Maine: 4 Republicans

Probably to Hanna, unless Roosevelt can drag three of the four along.

Maryland: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats

By all rights, this should be Hanna's--but one defection and it's deadlocked.  Maryland was weird in 1904 anyway....Roosevelt won by a total of 51 votes, but 7 of the 8 electors voted for Parker.

One of the Democrats fought for the Confederacy and is in all likelihood a distant cousin of mine.

Massachusetts: 10 Republicans, 4 Democrats

3 Republicans would have to defect to Roosevelt to split it here.  Not incredibly likely, in my opinion, so probably Hanna.

Michigan: 11 Republicans, 1 Democrat

Unless Roosevelt can come up with 5 defectors, this one's going to Hanna.

Minnesota: 8 Republicans, 1 Democrat

Hanna, in all likelihood.

Mississippi: 8 Democrats

Parker.

Missouri: 15 Democrats, 1 Republican

Probably Parker

Montana:

Joseph Moore Dixon decides here.  Republican--whether Roosevelt or Hanna, I can't say, but I suspect Hanna.


And I'm too tired to do the rest of these.

[A18]

Well, Mark Hanna's sane, but I hate him.

How come?

[Ronald Reagan]

Hanna - 226
Parker - 250

[Colin]

Hanna - 226
Parker - 250

Okay incredibly popular President Teddy Roosevelt gets over 80 EVs running as a third party in 1912 after he's been out of office for 4 years but doesn't win any at the height of his fame and renowned. Okay whatever you say.

[MasterJedi]

Teddy Roosevelt, he gets my vote because of his imperialistic views.

[Erc]

Well, Mark Hanna's sane, but I hate him.

How come?

For the same reason I hate McKinley...the tariff.

I would have voted Democratic pretty much up until Al Smith, with a few exceptions (1868, 1880, all the times Bryan runs, and 1916)