United North America

[Burn baby, Burn]

if Canada and the US were united at this moment, how would the next congressional and presidential elections turn out?

Canada would get 55 house seats, lets assume they are added on to the 435 so that no state loses any.

ON-19 reps
PQ-13
BC-7
AB-5
MB-2
SK-2
NS-2
NB-1
NL-1
PE-1

[Jake]

Obviously, the Democrats would use you socialists to actually gain majorities in the House and Senate, though I imagine a good number of rural western seats could fall to the GOP along with possibly a Senate seat or two in Alberta. I'd expect the Democrats to win all the new states regardless, though I'd compare the chances of the GOP in Alberta to be near those of winning Maine.

[Burn baby, Burn]

wow, how, how negative.

I'd remind you to look at how "right-wing" Mass or Cali "Republicans" are, and how "left-wing" Utah and Texas "Democrats" are.

I think the Democrats could/would win the 5 atlantic canada seats. Quebec, at least right now, would probably return 1 Democrat, and 12 Sepratists. Manitoba and Saskatchewan, depending on how the districts are drawn, would be pretty even, but seeing as I think enough NDPers would run as indpendents, I say all 4 would be taken by the Republicans, including the 5 Alberta seats, and at least 5 of BC's seats, with the others taken by perhaps 1 Democrat, and 1 Independent Socialist. Ontario is really the only state I could see returning lots of Democrats, perhaps 4 Republicans and 15 Democrats. This would add 20 Democrats and 14 Republicans, as well as 12 Sepratists and 1 Independent. Take out Quebec and its 19-14-1. That's not perfectly balanced, but its close. In the senate, I think Manitoba, Saskatchewan, NB, NS and BC would split its ticket. Ontario, NL, and PE would vote Democrat, Alberta Republican, and Quebec Sepratist. that's 8 Democrats, 6 Republicans and 2 Sepratists. Again, not perfectly balanced, but pretty close.

Remember that we'd have our own leader. Stephen Harper, not George Bush would be the main speaker to Canadian Republicans. People like Bernard Lord would also draw in alot of canadians, even John Tory as a Republican would do well. I think the only big shift would be in presidential elections. Realistically only New Brunswick, and possibly Alberta would vote a Republican for president. (polls in 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, and 1988 all show that NB would have been the only province to vote for the Republicans) If Alberta voted Repulbican, this would be 10 extra Republican electoral votes, and 48 new Democratic votes, with Quebec likely voting Lucien Bouchard as president. This 38 point swing would have an effect, but overall, congress would remain Repulbican.

that's my assessment anyway

[opebo]

The only thing one can be sure of is that such an arrangement would make things betterin the old US, and worse in what is now Canada.

[ATFFL]

[Jake]

wow, how, how negative.

I'd remind you to look at how "right-wing" Mass or Cali "Republicans" are, and how "left-wing" Utah and Texas "Democrats" are.

I think the Democrats could/would win the 5 atlantic canada seats. Quebec, at least right now, would probably return 1 Democrat, and 12 Sepratists. Manitoba and Saskatchewan, depending on how the districts are drawn, would be pretty even, but seeing as I think enough NDPers would run as indpendents, I say all 4 would be taken by the Republicans, including the 5 Alberta seats, and at least 5 of BC's seats, with the others taken by perhaps 1 Democrat, and 1 Independent Socialist. Ontario is really the only state I could see returning lots of Democrats, perhaps 4 Republicans and 15 Democrats. This would add 20 Democrats and 14 Republicans, as well as 12 Sepratists and 1 Independent. Take out Quebec and its 19-14-1. That's not perfectly balanced, but its close. In the senate, I think Manitoba, Saskatchewan, NB, NS and BC would split its ticket. Ontario, NL, and PE would vote Democrat, Alberta Republican, and Quebec Sepratist. that's 8 Democrats, 6 Republicans and 2 Sepratists. Again, not perfectly balanced, but pretty close.

Remember that we'd have our own leader. Stephen Harper, not George Bush would be the main speaker to Canadian Republicans. People like Bernard Lord would also draw in alot of canadians, even John Tory as a Republican would do well. I think the only big shift would be in presidential elections. Realistically only New Brunswick, and possibly Alberta would vote a Republican for president. (polls in 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, and 1988 all show that NB would have been the only province to vote for the Republicans) If Alberta voted Repulbican, this would be 10 extra Republican electoral votes, and 48 new Democratic votes, with Quebec likely voting Lucien Bouchard as president. This 38 point swing would have an effect, but overall, congress would remain Repulbican.

that's my assessment anyway

Your brand of "Conservatives" are roughly equal to a Lincoln Chafee conservative from all I've seen. Maybe if they all decide to be moderate Republicans instead if moderate Democrats we can win a number of House seats, but I really don't see many other than some of your more conservative Conservatives actually joining the GOP, mainly because the GOP label would make them less electable. I do believe the NDP would most likely ally with the leftist third parties and win a number of seats in some of their traditionally strong areas, though the Democrats would, as I said above, win a large majority of seats, possibly as many as 45-50 House seats and 16-18 Senate seats.

[Burn baby, Burn]

I think the canada is more right wing then you'd like to beleive. Surly the Alliance voters would vote GOP. just following that alone, you'd get 2 SK seats. I think 1 MB seat would have won out, depending on how you draw it. All 5 alberta seats would be won. at least 4 in BC. These are not John McCain type Republicans, these are Bill Frist type Republicans. Argubally without the PC Party, the Alliance could have won a US-sized single district in Ontario. Even if not, the Ontario GOP members, even if there are only 4 of them, would not be as mushy as you make it sound.

I also think the NDP will work with the Democrats. look up the names David Emmerson, Ujjal Dossanjh, or even Bob Rae. All were NDPers provincially who became federal Liberals. Federally, NDPers, at least the ones with their sanity intact, are willing to work with the Liberals when political pragamatism requires it. Dare I say that only 10% or less of the NDP vote would NOT go Democrat. In the provinces it might be a different story, but it'll turn out like Minnisota in the end, where the Farmer-Labor party ended up joining with the Democrats. In Alberta, Ontario and the Atlantic I think the "2.5 party system" would be maintained. The NDP might need to change its name, likely would too, or perhaps merge with the Greens, one of them anyway, lol. BC, Manitoba and Saskatchewan might be different stories as their party systems are unique. Being in government makes you oppertunist, I could see SK and MB NDP's negotiating with the federal Democratic party to be let in as left-wing member parties. If this were to happen it also helps my argument that moderate GOPers could win all the federal districts. BC is really the only english province where things might not line up exactly. I dont think the BCL would feel confomrtable as either a GOP aligned or Democratic aligned party. The BC NDP certainly would demand socialism, and the Federal Democrats would be smart to shun them. If BCL was smart it'd register itself as the Demoratic-Republican party and work out a deal with both major parties when it comes to primaries and the such. It could possibly elect federal centrists. it'd be interesting to see how BC would react. Quebec, well forget about Quebec, not important enough to worry about, they'd never stick around.

I think alot of you americans dont know the real story about Canada. The posts from some of you make it sound like 100% of the people in canada agree that socialism rules. The reality is that Canada should not be seen as Canada. We are 10 seprate provinces with 10 seperate ideas. Quebec, forget about. The atlantic provinces (4 of them) are like an extetnion of Democratic New England. Western Canada shares alot in common with the western half of the USA. Ontario is unique too even, I could see it being a very Democratic state, but certainly not all of Canada. I dont see what the worry is about, perhaps there'd be a slight shift, but in the end, it'd be like adding another California.

[skybridge]

The only thing one can be sure of is that such an arrangement would make things betterin the old US, and worse in what is now Canada.

Actually that United States of Canada vs. Jesusland didn't look so bad.