CA-GOV: New poll (September 7th)

[Moooooo]

Field Poll:

General:

Angelides (D): 43 (46)
Schwarzenegger (R): 40 (42)
Undecided: 17 (12)

Westly (D): 42 (44)
Schwarzenegger (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 19 (16)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Primary:

Angelides: 32 (37)
Westly: 22 (28)
Undecided: 46 (35)

I have no idea if this is a partisan polling company or not.  There is a huge PDF file inside the link.

[Alcon]

Field Poll is non-partisan, but their history is not that great.  They generally poll in California, and typically have some of the earliest poll results.

They have a history of favouring the Dems, especially early on, but this year they were pretty much in line with other pollsters, sometimes favouring the GOP.

Their last poll in the Presidential race benefited Bush by three points (October 27th).  However, since they only poll in California and don't poll way too often, it's hard to say what their reputation is.

I'd tentatively say they are a formerly Dem-leaning firm that has cleaned up their internals - perhaps too much - and started to have a slight GOP lean.

However, a few things to consider:

1. It's too early.

2. Normally, with candidate totals adding to over 80%, this would suggest a moderately divided electorate.  However, increasing undecideds and the moderate nature of the candidates means that these might be weak numbers (lots of people who are really undecided who report themselves as decided.)

3. The MoE is not that great, and again, it's not a very established pollster.

4. It's too early for 83% of the electorate to be decided.

Vorlon might give a spin to the internals if he has time; that isn't my area.  I also can't tell you how well Field Poll is with state races, I'm afraid.

[© tweed]

I believe the Field Poll has been deemed as accurate by Vorlon, and yes, they exclusively poll CA.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Field Poll is non-partisan, but their history is not that great.  They generally poll in California, and typically have some of the earliest poll results.

They have a history of favouring the Dems, especially early on, but this year they were pretty much in line with other pollsters, sometimes favouring the GOP.

Their last poll in the Presidential race benefited Bush by three points (October 27th).  However, since they only poll in California and don't poll way too often, it's hard to say what their reputation is.

I'd tentatively say they are a formerly Dem-leaning firm that has cleaned up their internals - perhaps too much - and started to have a slight GOP lean.

However, a few things to consider:

1. It's too early.

2. Normally, with candidate totals adding to over 80%, this would suggest a moderately divided electorate.  However, increasing undecideds and the moderate nature of the candidates means that these might be weak numbers (lots of people who are really undecided who report themselves as decided.)

3. The MoE is not that great, and again, it's not a very established pollster.

4. It's too early for 83% of the electorate to be decided.

Vorlon might give a spin to the internals if he has time; that isn't my area.  I also can't tell you how well Field Poll is with state races, I'm afraid.

Actually, Field is a pretty good pollster. A bit off today, Alcon?  A pro-Dem poll would have the Democrats above low 40s. MOE isn't much of an argument, the margins are about the same as their last poll. However, for some reason undecides are up.

[The Duke]

Alcon is 100% right, Field Poll is a Dem leaning poll, almost in the CBS category acctually.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Alcon is 100% right, Field Poll is a Dem leaning poll, almost in the CBS category acctually.

Explain to me why this Dem leaning poll had the recall leading 58%-37% at one point in time.

In fact, shortly before the election, it was 57%-39%.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/recall/20031003-9999_1n3field.html

The recall only passed 55%-45%.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Taking out Arnold is probably teh best way to build momentum for 2008. Hell yes.

[Moooooo]

Alcon is 100% right, Field Poll is a Dem leaning poll, almost in the CBS category acctually.

Strictly from a non partisan point of view.  Who is the better candidate... Westly or Angelides?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Alcon is 100% right, Field Poll is a Dem leaning poll, almost in the CBS category acctually.

Strictly from a non partisan point of view.  Who is the better candidate... Westly or Angelides?

Better candidate in which way? I would say it'd definitely be Angelides, if you ignore that Westly could self-finance.

[Moooooo]

Better candidate in which way? I would say it'd definitely be Angelides, if you ignore that Westly could self-finance.

As in who has the better chance of winning the general election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Better candidate in which way? I would say it'd definitely be Angelides, if you ignore that Westly could self-finance.

As in who has the better chance of winning the general election.

That's where it gets tricky, because Westly could self-finance.

[Moooooo]

I read somewhere that Angelides is about as charismatic as a dead fish.  How is Westly?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I head somewhere tht Angelides is about as charismatic as a dead fish.  How is Westly?

I don't know much about Westly, but Angelides seems to have be good on the issues. He did take a strong stand against Arnold's $15 billion in borrowing Proposition that passed. Weird, undecideds are way up for the primary, too.

Hopefully voters will realize that more matters than stupid one liners or charisma or whatever you call it.

[Alcon]

Alcon is 100% right, Field Poll is a Dem leaning poll, almost in the CBS category acctually.

That is not quite what I said...they used to be Dem-leaning, and now they are GOP-leaning but good.

However, it has been to little time for me to let the Dem lean wear off, and it could have been dumb luck.

In any case, that's not a cemented enough record to trust.  If Vorlon trusts them, though, I don't know what to think.  He knows more about this than I do.

[The Duke]

Alcon is 100% right, Field Poll is a Dem leaning poll, almost in the CBS category acctually.

Explain to me why this Dem leaning poll had the recall leading 58%-37% at one point in time.

In fact, shortly before the election, it was 57%-39%.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/recall/20031003-9999_1n3field.html

The recall only passed 55%-45%.

That same poll shows Arnold getting only 36% of the vote, when he actualy got 48%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Alcon is 100% right, Field Poll is a Dem leaning poll, almost in the CBS category acctually.

Explain to me why this Dem leaning poll had the recall leading 58%-37% at one point in time.

In fact, shortly before the election, it was 57%-39%.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/recall/20031003-9999_1n3field.html

The recall only passed 55%-45%.

That same poll shows Arnold getting only 36% of the vote, when he actualy got 48%.

Problem is that you can't apply normal 2-way race reasoning to that poll. A lot of people might have been undecided between Arnold and McClintock, and then decided to vote Arnold.

[Democratic Hawk]

I just hope California Democrats are capable of finding a candidate who can run the bleeding gimmick out of Sacramento

Dave

[AuH2O]

Ah, the Democrats so desperately want to believe. Some of them even do.

[Joe Republic]

Ah, the Democrats so desperately want to believe. Some of them even do.

Are there any election races that you're willing to call for the Democrats at all?

[ian]

I read that Schwartzneggar is going to veto a gay marriage bill.  I don't see the point in having a moderate Republican governor if he is just going to implement conservative Republican policies.  I'm growing more and more disenfranchised with Arnold.  I hope he loses (to Gray Davis--that'd be some REAL karma).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I read that Schwartzneggar is going to veto a gay marriage bill.  I don't see the point in having a moderate Republican governor if he is just going to implement conservative Republican policies.  I'm growing more and more disenfranchised with Arnold.  I hope he loses (to Gray Davis--that'd be some REAL karma).

While it'd be nice to see some payback like that, Gray Davis's political career is over. That aside, he might not be able to become governor again because of the term limits law. It depends on how exactly it's written. Normally you're allowed 2 terms as governor. Davis had about 1.2 terms.

[AuH2O]

Ah, the Democrats so desperately want to believe. Some of them even do.

Are there any election races that you're willing to call for the Democrats at all?

Only the ones they are likely to win.

[Cashcow]

Ah, the Democrats so desperately want to believe. Some of them even do.

Are there any election races that you're willing to call for the Democrats at all?

AuH2O is quite correct in this instance.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What's with the people who still think Arnold is invincible? The latest SUSA gave him a 61% disapproval rating. Things like that are a problem for your re-election.

[Alcon]

Ah, the Democrats so desperately want to believe. Some of them even do.

Are there any election races that you're willing to call for the Democrats at all?

AuH2O is quite correct in this instance.

With disapproval ratings so high, he won't be elected on popularity.  And it's not like the state leans toward him politically.

I may be falling into partisan waters here, but even independently, I can see this race falling out of Schwarzenegger's hands.

What's your reasoning for thinking it impossible?