Day 18: Louisiana

[Alcon]

I've been mildly dreading this one, but here we go.



Also helpful, a population map:



Lots of suburban, heavily white, heavily Republican areas tend to control state politics (like Jefferson, all but central Baton Rouge) with low-population black areas and high population but low turnout cities with heavily black populations.

Then there is rural Louisiana, moderately populated and heavily Republican.

I won't even begin to comment on the Hurricane effect, other than to say it probably wasn't good for Blanco in more than one way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2003 Gubernatorial Election:

[nclib]

2003 Gubernatorial Election:

Blanco did well in rural areas partially due to Jindal's ethnicity.

[© tweed]

2003 Gubernatorial Election:

Blanco did well in rural areas partially due to Jindal's ethnicity.

Blanco also ran as a good southern socially conservative populist.  She was a great candidate, and still had trouble winning.

[nini2287]

2003 Gubernatorial Election:

Blanco did well in rural areas partially due to Jindal's ethnicity.

Blanco also ran as a good southern socially conservative populist.  She was a great candidate, and still had trouble winning.

She ran a Saxby Chambliss-esque campaign style to win, though Jindal probably deserved the victory.  Despite some of the socially conservative areas voting for Blanco because of Jindal's ethnicity, he did manage to win his House election in a very conservative district.

[memphis]

Louisiana is following today's Deep South pattern of voting heavily Republican for national offices (although they do have a Democratic Senator), but retaining the traditional Democratic traditions at the local level. Personally, I'm guessing that it's only a matter of time before results for local offices more closely match those for President.  The Solidly Democratic South is dying a long, slow death. It just the opposite process of places like Northern New England which used to be overwhelmingly Republican.

[RBH]

2003 Gubernatorial Election:

Blanco did well in rural areas partially due to Jindal's ethnicity.

I wouldn't say that's been completely proven yet. But it's been repeated enough to be accepted.

For one thing, Blanco's ads in the last week blasted Jindal's handling of medicare (such as kicking poorer people off the rolls). That helped make voters see him more as some sort of uncaring policy wonk, instead of someone they could relate to.

Sure, she did do well in Northern Louisiana compared to 1991, but the circumstances are different.

The total vote for Democrats in the primary was higher than her vote total in a lot of northern parishes. As you would expect. The percentage of people voting for one party only shifted to the Democrats in Terrebonne parish, which voted for a Republican named Downer, then they shifted to Blanco (who is of French descent)

Blanco seems to be the most conservative Louisiana Democrat to have been in the runoff since Roemer in 1987. Edwards was pretty much liberal. Fields was liberal and trounced outside of New Orleans.

Blanco won because she won a descent number of votes from white voters. She was probably slightly helped in the North by Nagin endorsing Bobby Jindal, since I get the sense that the rest of Louisiana dislikes a lot of New Orleans.

[bgwah]

What a bizarre map...Seeing suburbs and rural areas vote so differently like that is weird.

[memphis]

What a bizarre map...Seeing suburbs and rural areas vote so differently like that is weird.

I'd say the bigger surprise is to see New Orleans vote with rural Louisiana. If you've ever been to Louisiana, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Also helpful, a population map:

It's probably more like this now:

[bgwah]

^Nah, you forgot to darken parishes with lots of refugees, particularly whatever parish has Baton Rouge in it.

[Alcon]

^Nah, you forgot to darken parishes with lots of refugees, particularly whatever parish has Baton Rouge in it.
[/quote

East Baton Rouge, and yes.

Interesting map, though.  However, people are already returning to Plaquemines Parish, so it probably shouldn't be white.

[MissCatholic]

Hurricane Katrina could really hurt the democrats. New Orleans was the main base for the democrats in the deep south (now its probably Georgia). Vitter beating Bereaux was a real blow for the dems and if Hillary gets the nom then Mary Landrieu will likely lose her seat unless Jindel runs agaisnt her which she will beat him easily.

[Frodo]

(...)Vitter beating Bereaux was a real blow for the dems

What are you talking about?  Vitter beat Chris John.  John Breaux had announced he was retiring, which left an open seat for David Vitter to fill.  Thus, the two did not compete directly against one another. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And how do know this? 

[MissCatholic]

(...)Vitter beating Bereaux was a real blow for the dems

What are you talking about?  Vitter beat Chris John.  John Breaux had announced he was retiring, which left an open seat for David Vitter to fill.  Thus, the two did not compete directly against one another. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And how do know this? 

did Bereaux retire? my mistake...landrieu has been a target for republicans since 2000. The religious right and bush campaigned heavily in 2002 to get her out. Landrieu won barely. Jindel has a big future with the republicans but he lost to Blanco becasue of his race. See maps above. Landrieu is one of the few dems that can fight fire with fire and will be able to defeat Jindel by a few points. Landrieus problem is her votes on abortion which are up and down.

[memphis]

Landrieu was brutally attacked in 2002 with TV ads comparing her to Hillary Clinton and phrases like "Louisiana's most liberal senator ever."  Republicans have conveniently forgotten Huey Long's radical economic rhetoric. Louisiana is the only state in the nation that has runoffs rather than primaries, meaning that the top two cnadidates for Senator (if there is no majority in the general election) face off in December. In her runoff in 2002 (the last time soft money was allowed, the Republican Party paid impovershed black people in New Orleans $75/hour to hold signs in their neighborhood, suggesting that their neighbors not vote. The exact quote was "If you don't respect us, don't expect us." The Republicans have no shame. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Landrieu was brutally attacked in 2002 with TV ads comparing her to Hillary Clinton and phrases like "Louisiana's most liberal senator ever."  Republicans have conveniently forgotten Huey Long's radical economic rhetoric. Louisiana is the only state in the nation that has runoffs rather than primaries, meaning that the top two cnadidates for Senator (if there is no majority in the general election) face off in December. In her runoff in 2002 (the last time soft money was allowed, the Republican Party paid impovershed black people in New Orleans $75/hour to hold signs in their neighborhood, suggesting that their neighbors not vote. The exact quote was "If you don't respect us, don't expect us." The Republicans have no shame. 

Ironic that many of those blacks who were employed by the Republicans are now dead, thanks to Bush's inactions.

[Ben.]

Landrieu’s win in 02 was in no small part thanks to her reconnecting with white conservative voters, thanks to her casting her self as a strong independent voice for her state in stark contrast to Terrell who’s main campaign plank was that she would vote for Bush “100% of the time” not a sensible things to say with relation to anyone I’d have thought.

Indeed the elections in both 2002 and 2003 showed the ability of the Democrats to do without a very strong Black turnout in New Orleans, in 2002 Landrieu faced Terrell who’s base of support was in the New Orleans area and who’s campaign had some success suppressing the Democratic vote in the poorer, predominantly black areas of the city, then again in 2003 Nagin’s energetic support of Jindal compromised the Democratic base in New Orleans and forced Blanco to rely on the “good o’ld boys” in the north of the state.

Looking towards 2008, I think Landrieu’s conduct over the recent weeks and months will stand her in good stead and have helped her build up a lot of a good will, she should be able to expand her vote amongst white rural conservative voters as well as Cajun voters in the south of the state, as it’s a presidential year I’ll still be close… but she should be ok.         

[Frodo]

Read on:

Census-
Population Loss Alters Louisiana Politics

By JEREMY ALFORD
Published: October 4, 2005

BATON ROUGE, La., Oct. 3 - The two recent gulf hurricanes may result in a significant loss of population for Louisiana, and state officials are now virtually certain that Louisiana will lose a Congressional seat - along with federal financing and national influence - after the 2010 census.

With a low-wage economy and consistently poor educational performance, Louisiana was losing population even before the hurricanes. The state had a net loss of more than 75,000 people from 1995 to 2000, according to census figures. But the physical and psychological damage inflicted by the hurricanes could push tens of thousands, and possibly hundreds of thousands, of people out of the state for good, state officials say, comparable only to the Dust Bowl during the Great Depression and possibly the 1927 floods.

source

[Joe Republic]

Read on:

Census-
Population Loss Alters Louisiana Politics

By JEREMY ALFORD
Published: October 4, 2005

BATON ROUGE, La., Oct. 3 - The two recent gulf hurricanes may result in a significant loss of population for Louisiana, and state officials are now virtually certain that Louisiana will lose a Congressional seat - along with federal financing and national influence - after the 2010 census.

With a low-wage economy and consistently poor educational performance, Louisiana was losing population even before the hurricanes. The state had a net loss of more than 75,000 people from 1995 to 2000, according to census figures. But the physical and psychological damage inflicted by the hurricanes could push tens of thousands, and possibly hundreds of thousands, of people out of the state for good, state officials say, comparable only to the Dust Bowl during the Great Depression and possibly the 1927 floods.

source

And will most likely add yet another one to Texas.

[Frodo]

What's even more interesting about this change is how much of an impact in can have on Louisiana politics.  With New Orleans losing not only its status as the largest city in Louisiana, but also its formidable hold on the state legislature, it would allow Republicans to gain power and dominance in that state in a way they had not been able to previously, with political power shifting from the major cities to the rural areas and suburbs.  It makes one wonder how this would impact the 2007 gubernatorial election, and Sen. Mary Landrieu's chances of re-election in 2008.    

[Joe Republic]

In the short term, perhaps so.  But the city will rebuild.  It will probably take decades, but it needs to rebuild.  And when it does, we'll most likely see a return to the balance as before Katrina.

[© tweed]

I agree with Frodo.  The GOP will dominate this state politically for the foreseeable future because the blacks who comprised the Dem voting based are either a) dead, or b) gone and not moving back.

[Frodo]

In the short term, perhaps so.  But the city will rebuild.  It will probably take decades, but it needs to rebuild.  And when it does, we'll most likely see a return to the balance as before Katrina.

How are you so sure that New Orleans will return to what it was?  Galveston, Texas, to my knowledge, was once a thriving port city prior to the 1905 hurricane that destroyed it.  It is now only a bedroom community for vacationers.  It has never returned to its former greatness.  

With New Orleans below sea level, I doubt that it will ever be regarded again as being safe for human habitation on a massive scale.  If Hurricane Katrina -which didn't even hit the city directly- could wreak this much damage, imagine the impact another, much stronger hurricane could cause as it aims for the bull's-eye that is New Orleans.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thing to remember about the population shifts is that the New Orleans suburbs (heavily white and Republican) got hit pretty bad as well; especially Jefferson county which has been crucial to statewide GOP candidates. Right now it's impossible to work out what the demographic and political impact of the hurricane will be.