Day 19: Maine
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Day 19: Maine
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Author Topic: Day 19: Maine  (Read 2811 times)
Alcon
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« on: September 12, 2005, 02:17:20 PM »



A state that many considered a battleground in 2004 but ended up going to John Kerry by nine points, with even ME-CD2 (which some, including me, called for Bush) not very close.

An independent-minded northeastern state and also Perot's closest.

Comments?
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Cashcow
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2005, 02:29:32 PM »

CD-2 is overrated. I doubt Maine will ever split. It's interesting to analyze its differences from New Hampshire and Massachusetts, however; New England is a very diverse region (though some might lead you to believe otherwise).
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2005, 05:13:41 PM »

If the GOP keeps nominating conservatives, Maine will become solid Dem within 4-8 years (if it isn't already).  It's like New Hampshire is, only 4 years or so in adavance.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2005, 09:56:39 PM »

I've been looking forward to this discussion for days, but now that the day of discussing my home state is here, I'm not that into it.  I will provide some links to some earlier threads where I commented on Maine's Presidential results in 2000 and 2004.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=65.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=8059.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=18419.0

I don't have the mental energy to discuss trends for the future now, except to say that I don't see the Democrats winning the election and not winning all four of Maine's electoral votes, or them not winning the election where they would have won if they had won all four of Maine's electoral votes.  I think the state and both districts (particularly the first) will continue to be more Democratic than the nation as a whole, but the difference between Maine's results and those of the nation may well go down somewhat, both in the first district due to how great the difference was in the last election and the second where Hillary might not come across too well if she's the nominee.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
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MaC
Milk_and_cereal
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2005, 11:25:28 PM »

How does the geography/culture differ in the two districts?  I hear that the southern one is more like typical New England and the northern is more backwoods country hence making it more conservative.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2005, 11:38:00 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2005, 11:48:25 PM by Lt. Governor Provincial Rights (aka EarlAW) »

The town map is interesting too. All the french speaking communities in the north voted Kerry and the southern townships along the N.B. border voted Bush. Kind of like New Brunswick:



Actually N.B. is screwed up, it used to be the French voted Liberal, but the NW "panhandle" which is like 95% French voted Conservative.

this was the federal result (above is provincial)

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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2005, 12:03:51 AM »

Maine has become pretty much a solid Dem state.  Moderate Republican is the onnly way the state could go Republicans and outside of a solid EV win )75 or so) that is unlikely to even happen outside of a NorthEastern Republican on the ticket (Collins, Snowe obviously, Chafee, probably Rudy) only NorthEastern Republican that would actually have a chance of winning the GOP primary (Romney) probably doesn't take the state, unless he wins big nationally (which would be unlikely anyway).

Two Republican Senators, but quite liberal Republican senators at that, similar in many ways to Lincolin Chafee
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2005, 08:32:27 AM »

Maine still has the 'new hampshire conservatives' in the north that makes the dems struggle to get above 60%. But the south of Maine is so like the rest of New England that it is becoming increasing difficult for the republicans to get close. We will only know how conservative Maine is when the repulbicans elect a moderate and a dem a moderate.
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danwxman
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2005, 03:08:51 PM »

I wouldn't be so sure that northern Maine is conservative.

As a matter of fact, I am pretty sure the part of Maine that borders Canada is rather liberal.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2005, 03:44:36 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2005, 04:16:18 PM by Kevinstat »

I wouldn't be so sure that northern Maine is conservative.

As a matter of fact, I am pretty sure the part of Maine that borders Canada is rather liberal.

I assume you are speaking of the Saint John Valley in northern Aroostook County.  It is very Democratic, yes, but I wouldn't say it was liberal, particularly not culturally.  On the economic front, it's probably not supportive of big bussiness or strict lassez faire economics but not supportive of tax and spend liberalism either.  Of course, even some (if not most) areas that elect party-line Democratic congressmen are populated by people who by and large would not say they supported "tax and spend liberalism".  Maine's first district is a good example of this, with a prominent Maine polster calling the swing voters there "cruel yuppies" in the Portland suburbs who are supposed to have an aversion to taxes but nevertheless consistently support Tom Allen, although Republican Jim Longley carried the Portland suburbs (besides South Portland which by Maine standards is urban rather than suburban and Brunswick which is sevaral towns away and might be considered a smaller urban center of its own, although perhaps not for long with BNAS closing).  It's almost as if people thought, "he [Longley] said he was going to be a fiscal conservative, but we didn't think he was going to keep his word."  That sentiment is one I have heard attributed to college students in Minnesota who voted for Jesse Ventura for Governor in 1998.

Also, I read somewhere that a number of women in the first district mistakenly thought Longley was pro-choice, and I inferred from that that a lot of those women supported him over his Franco-American Democratic opponent who was a recent convert to the pro-choice position.  At the same time, if I recall correctly, "pro-Lifers" or "right-to-Lifers" (by which I assume is meant pro-Life voters who give a lot of weight to that position) were listed in the Almanac of American Politics 1996 as a group that (as a whole, I assume the almanac was saying) supported Longley.  Such voters probably usually vote Republican anyway, but I just wanted to point out that Longley may have gotten lucky as to how the abortion issue impacted the race that year.  Republican Governor John "Jock" (or "Joke" if you're a Democrat) McKernan gave hints to gay rights supporters during his tough bid for reelection in 1990 that he would let a gay rights bill become law without his signature if a significant majority in the Legislature voted for it, which according to my favorite satirical political pundit won him the support of some gay rights activists in that election without losing support from the other side, who apparently didn't learn of the "deal" until later.  When they did, they understandably got very angry.  This reaction is seemingly given credit by this satirical collumnist (Al Diamon in case you're interested) for Governor McKernan's subsquent veto (twice) of gay rights bills, each time using the "significant majority" caveat to justify his veto, even apparenly using the fact that more Republicans voted agaisnt the bill the second time than for it as meaning that the bill didn't have significant majority support.

So there's some early-to-mid nineties Maine political history for you.  I know it was a diversion from the main discussion (no pun intended), but there's no stopping ME when I get on a roll.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2005, 04:19:06 PM »

In addition to what Kevin (good to see you again, btw) said (and there's not a lot to add), I've just been looking at some census stuff and most of northern Maine is very working class (...and has lots of mountains and forests and sends Mike Michaud to Congress. What's not to like Smiley )... demographically it's very, very different to large parts of southern Maine.
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2005, 05:46:39 PM »

Massive Democrat trend in Presidential elections. In 68 years, it went from Landon by 14 to Kerry by 9.
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jokerman
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2005, 07:55:38 PM »

I get the feeling that Maine is a liberatarian leaning State because of it's two liberal Republicans and that it's moved more Democratic in recent years as the party has moved more libertarian.  Is this true?
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Alcon
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2005, 08:25:58 PM »

I get the feeling that Maine is a liberatarian leaning State because of it's two liberal Republicans and that it's moved more Democratic in recent years as the party has moved more libertarian.  Is this true?

Pretty much.  Also, the state is voting more on social issues than previously - it's more that than the Democratic Party moving that libertarian.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2005, 03:55:31 PM »

In addition to what Kevin (good to see you again, btw) said (and there's not a lot to add), I've just been looking at some census stuff and most of northern Maine is very working class (...and has lots of mountains and forests and sends Mike Michaud to Congress. What's not to like Smiley )... demographically it's very, very different to large parts of southern Maine.
Except that much the same (cept for Michaud) is true for large parts of southern Maine as well. Wink
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2005, 03:59:42 PM »

Except that much the same (cept for Michaud) is true for large parts of southern Maine as well. Wink

In parts Wink

I like Maine
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2005, 11:06:09 PM »

Maine is a great state.
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Alcon
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2005, 11:10:48 PM »

I've never been to Maine but I've always wanted to.  I get the impression that it is sort of like here, but with New England and French influences.  And great weather.  ;)
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2005, 06:41:57 PM »

We'd be glad to have you all come and visit.  And unlike Oregon, we actually wouldn't mind if you moved here as well. Smiley  We need more young people in Maine.
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