MT Sen: Burns at 51%.

[Moooooo]

Rasmussen:

Conrad Burns (R)    51%
John Tester (D)      38%
Other    4%

Conrad Burns (R)    51%
John Morrison (D)    39%
Other    4%

September 13, 2005--In his bid for re-election, Republican Senator Conrad Burns currently attracts 51% of the vote and holds a double digit lead against two potential challengers--State Senate President John Tester and State Auditor John Morrison.

The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 survey in the state finds Tester earning 38% of the vote and Morrison 39%.

Against both Democrats, Burns leads by more among men than he does among women.

Burns attracts more than 80% of conservative votes against both Democrats while losing more than 70% of liberal votes. Moderate voters are evenly divided.

Burns is viewed favorably by 55% of Montana voters and unfavorably by 37%.

For both Democrats, name recognition is much lower--nearly half of all voters have no opinion. For Tester, the numbers are 28% favorable, 25% unfavorable, and 46% no opinion. Morrison is viewed favorably by 30%, unfavorably by 23%, and 47% have no opinion.

The low name recognition of his challengers means that the is all about Conrad Burns at this time. But, that will change as the Democrats' select their nominee and voters learn more about him.

If the Burns campaign is able to define the eventual Democratic nominee in an  unfavorable light, the incumbent should have little trouble winning re-election. However, if the challenger appears credible to Montana voters, this could become one of the more interesting campaigns in Election 2006.

Just 35% of Montana voters believe the U.S. is on the right track. Sixty percent (60%) disagree.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Montana voters Approve of the way that President Bush is performing his job. Forty-eight percent (48%) Disapprove.

[MissCatholic]

Its not as bad as it looks. Tester is my pick. He has hardly any name recognition and has very very low disapproval ratings. Tester can make this thing a race. The good sign is that the dems have increased by 12pts since june. keep an eye on it. Tester can take on burns.

[AuH2O]

Burns will do either one dirty.

[Joe Republic]

Burns will do either one dirty.

Agreed.  For some reason I thought Burns was vulnerable, but clearly I was mistaken.

[ian]

For both Democrats, name recognition is much lower--nearly half of all voters have no opinion. For Tester, the numbers are 28% favorable, 25% unfavorable, and 46% no opinion. Morrison is viewed favorably by 30%, unfavorably by 23%, and 47% have no opinion.

You guys may be right.  Once Tester gets more name recognition, Burns might just lose.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

51% in a Republican poll. Rasmussen was kind of off in 2000.

[Jake]

Burns is up by 12 points and is the incumbent. Democrats say "He's in deep trouble".

Casey is up by less and is the challenger. Democrats say "He's got it in the bag."

Interesting

[Moooooo]

You guys may be right.  Once Tester gets more name recognition, Burns might just lose.

Eh, maybe, but I think I put too much faith into that one 36% re-elect poll that came out a couple months ago.  Maybe if Tester runs a great campaign.

[A18]

Burns is definitely the favorite, but a lot can happen between now and November 2006.

[Alcon]

I'm not sure why people are saying this is a lock.  The state senate president is hardly a known entity, and if he's a decent campaigner, he could pull it off.

Frankly this could be a landslide for the GOP or a win to the Dems.  I don't think this race has its "shape" yet and won't until the 2006 campaign season.  The same goes with any race that is established politician vs. relative unknown that could very well be a good campaigner, which Montana has.

[Sarnstrom]

I still think Morrison will be our candidate. He has already been endorsed by Bill Bradley, Bob Kerrey, John Melcher, and 30 of the democratic party county chairs. Plus I think Morrison is a stronger nominee. He has won state-wide office twice, while Tester has only won two state senate elections.

[Moooooo]

while Tester has only won two state senate elections.

Testers district stretches through the follwing counties.

Chouteau (Bush received 66% in 2004)
Liberty (Bush received 71% in 2004)
Hill (Bush received 53% in 2004)

[TheresNoMoney]

To poll 38%, while 46% who have no idea who are, is a pretty good start.

I read today that polls showed Burns ahead of Schweitzer 54-30 back in May 2000 and the race ended up 52-48.

[Moooooo]

To poll 38%, while 46% who have no idea who are, is a pretty good start.

I read today that polls showed Burns ahead of Schweitzer 54-30 back in May 2000 and the race ended up 52-48.

Im not sure if thats a good thing or a bad thing.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think it's a good thing.

[AuH2O]

Good for you. Too bad Burns is still going to win.

[MissCatholic]

Tester will pick up more votes in rural montana. Whoever gets the nod will have to campaign hard in the big towns. But i'm backing tester as he's an unknown.

Conservative democrats back Tester instead of Morrison so thats our best chance of giving burns a run.

[Sarnstrom]

Conservative democrats back Tester instead of Morrison so thats our best chance of giving burns a run.

I think you have the two candidates mixed up accordin to the Washington Post:

"Democrats have two candidates in Montana, with the smart money on state auditor John Morrison. State Sen. Jon Tester is a favorite among liberals but Morrison is seen as the stronger general election candidate -- as of right now."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2005/10/05/DI2005100501420_pf.html

[TheresNoMoney]

Tester has the better chance to win. He is a fourth generation Montana farmer who connects with rural voters.

Take a look at the guy and tell me he won't connect with Joe Sixpack in rural Montana!

[MissCatholic]

Almost 6 weeks on my support still lies with tester.

[HardRCafé]

Burns is definitely the favorite, but a lot can happen between now and November 2006.

Alas.

[Adlai Stevenson]

What is it with resurrecting old posts on here now? 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For both Democrats, name recognition is much lower--nearly half of all voters have no opinion. For Tester, the numbers are 28% favorable, 25% unfavorable, and 46% no opinion. Morrison is viewed favorably by 30%, unfavorably by 23%, and 47% have no opinion.

You guys may be right.  Once Tester gets more name recognition, Burns might just lose.

Looks he got it.

[7,052,770]

My heart skipped a beat when I saw this title.

[Saxwsylvania]

Damn it - stop bumping old posts!  Save your "well, would you look at how that turned out" for when the election is over.