Day 20: Maryland

[Alcon]

A state of northern urban areas, northern suburbs, and southern rural areas that votes very much accordingly.

Also home to Prince Georges County, the most Democratic suburban county in the country, and the wealthiest majority-black county, as well.

[MaC]

State that seems like it's influenced by D.C.'s voting.  Baltimore as a city solidifies it.

[Beet]

Actually, only about a quarter of Maryland's votes comes from the D.C. suburbs (Montgomery and PG counties) and less than a tenth comes from Baltimore City. These places alone do not form a majority, as we saw in 2002. Thus, the basis for the Democratic majority in Maryland is actually somewhat more complicated than it first appears.

The state's counties can be broadly divided between metropolitan and rural; the rural counties because of their tiny size are largely insignificant individually but important only when taken as a whole.

The metropolitan counties can further be divided between ones falling in the D.C. metropoltian area or the Baltimore metropolitan area; and they are classified as either medium sized or large. Again, the medium sized counties are largely insignificant individually but important when aggregated and combined with others.

The large counties are each individually important to the balance of power in the state and are divided between strongly Democratic (Montgomery, Prince George's, Baltimore City), Strong Republican (Anne Arundel), and the decisive swing county (Baltimore County), which ordinarily delivers a small margin.

The main GOP coalition consists of Anne Arundel County, Harford and Carroll Counties, which are medium-size counties which are strong GOP, and the rural counties. All of these counties except the rural ones fall within the Baltimore metropolitan area.

Against these are balanced the Democrats' "Big Three", listed above.

These are generally the stable political coalitions in the state. The wild card is Baltimore County, which generally delivers a small margin. It is this small margin that explains the Democratic majorities in Maryland. The Democrats' stable coalition outvotes the Republicans' stable coalition; as long as Baltimore County delivers a small margin, the Democrats win "the battle of the stable majorities". However, if Baltimore County delivers a strong GOP majority, the state becomes majority GOP. Therefore, the state's main battleground is and will for the foreseeable future be the Baltimore metropolitan area.

Trends: As of now, the Baltimore metro is trending slightly Republican (partly due to exurban growth which is enlarging Harford and Carroll), but this trend is being cancelled out because the D.C. metro is trending slightly Democratic just enough so that the state percentages look stable. These trends do not mean anything so long as Baltimore County remains stable...

[nclib]

An interesting fact about Maryland is that it is the only state that gave Gore a larger margin of victory than Clinton in 1996.

[Beet]

Another thing, the D.C. suburbs taken as a whole are unique from both northern and southern suburbs. The percentage of blacks is higher than in northern suburbs, while Catholics are a plurality among whites unlike southern suburbs. The entire area is highly affected by government agencies and their subsidiaries; professional work constitutes most of the higher level economy and there is virtually no manufacturing.

[Smash255]

An interesting fact about Maryland is that it is the only state that gave Gore a larger margin of victory than Clinton in 1996.

Probably due to the suburban shift continuing to move leftward (in the mid-atlantic & Northeast)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm originally from Prince George's County.

20 years ago there were White areas of the county and Black areas of the county.  White areas like Bowie were very Republican, and the Black areas like Suitland were just extensions of DC.  Today, I think, the county is much more integrated, and the White suburbanites are much less Republican.

Probably the same situation is going on the Montgomery and Baltimore counties.  Combined with the continued growth of the urban sprawl, this state is going to continue trending Democrat.

[Joe Republic]

Probably the weirdest shaped state in the Union.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Probably the weirdest shaped state in the Union.

Maryland Public Television once did a skit comedy called "Crabs."  About the only quote I can remember is someone proudly stating that MD was "The only state in the union shaped like a handgun!"

[MaC]

hmm, that Western most county is pretty strong for Bush.

[Sam Spade]

hmm, that Western most county is pretty strong for Bush.

Western Maryland is historically very Republican, going back to the Civil War.

It was one of those mountainous regions that was opposed to slavery.

[Joe Republic]

Probably the weirdest shaped state in the Union.

Maryland Public Television once did a skit comedy called "Crabs."  About the only quote I can remember is someone proudly stating that MD was "The only state in the union shaped like a handgun!"

LOL, though I think it looks more like a profile shot of Elvis's famous hairdo.

[minionofmidas]

I'm originally from Prince George's County.

20 years ago there were White areas of the county and Black areas of the county.  White areas like Bowie were very Republican, and the Black areas like Suitland were just extensions of DC.  Today, I think, the county is much more integrated, and the White suburbanites are much less Republican.

Probably the same situation is going on the Montgomery and Baltimore counties.  Combined with the continued growth of the urban sprawl, this state is going to continue trending Democrat.

There aren't many White-majority precincts left in PG's.

[danwxman]

hmm, that Western most county is pretty strong for Bush.

That will change in the next few Presidential elections.

[Alcon]

hmm, that Western most county is pretty strong for Bush.

That will change in the next few Presidential elections.

Why?

[Jake]

Doubtful, if anything the only changes will be the increased suburbanization of Fredireck County and the outer Baltimore counties.

[danwxman]

hmm, that Western most county is pretty strong for Bush.

That will change in the next few Presidential elections.

Why?

It's DC's wintertime playground. While most just visit there, I have a good friend (liberal who moved from DC) that told me a lot of DC liberals are moving into the cheap but huge houses they are building throughout the county. I was also just through the county not too long ago and it is true there is a lot of housing going up.

Think of it as similar to the ski resort towns out West that have turned towards the Democrats recently.