Katrina Forecasts

[jimrtex]

Katrina Forecast Archive from National Weather Service
The earliest forecasts were for the second landfall to be around Panama City, Florida at about 70 mph.   Some of the forecasts may have underplayed the strike probablity for New Orleans because it was further west meaning that the time of landfall was beyond the range of the forecasts )e.g it might be headed towards New Orleans in 72 hours, but not there yet; but if it headed towards Panama City it would be over Georgia by then.  Some forecasts were giving equal probablity for New Orleans and Charleston, SC.  I think the Charleston risk would be the remnant of a storm that came ashore in Florida and turned NE.

The forecasts of intensification were quite late.  One forecast, stated that 3 different models were predicting 115, 122, and 131 MPH winds.

Basically, they didn't know when the storm was going to turn north, with one forecast even indicating a possible landfall near Brownsville, TX.  It would be like an end sweep where you don't know when the runner will cut up field.

What I don't know is if the forecasts could predict that if it did turn for New Orleans that it would go over the warmest Gulf waters (i.e. if it hits New Orleans it will be Category 4, if it hits Panama City or Texas it would be much milder).  If that is possible, then an earlier forecast could be made for areas that will take longer to evacuate.

[J. J.]

There was possibility 50-60 hours warning of the possibility.  I sent an e-mail to a friend in Baton Rouge on Friday 8/26 at about 5:30 PM ET, stating that he was on the "western edge" of the zone.  The problem with disasters is that there is usually very little warning.

[jimrtex]

There was possibility 50-60 hours warning of the possibility.  I sent an e-mail to a friend in Baton Rouge on Friday 8/26 at about 5:30 PM ET, stating that he was on the "western edge" of the zone.  The problem with disasters is that there is usually very little warning.

The 5 AM Friday forecast predicted about 90 KT winds and a landfall around Pensacola.  And said "it is certainly possible" that Katrina could strengthen to a major category storm (3-5).

The 11 AM Friday forecast predicted about 110 KT winds and said strengthening to a major storm was expect.

The 5 PM Friday forecast predicted about 115 KT winds and moved the forecast for significantly westward.  This is at about 60 hours out.

The first forecast that predicted really high storm surge (15-20 feet) with 25 foot waves was 10 PM Saturday.

The following is kind of interesting if you know where the 17 Street Canal is.  This simulation used a eye going west of New Orleans that pulled a storm surge up into Lake Pontchartrain, but the flooding appears to have come from either simulated breaches of the Mississippi levy or overtopping.

Hurricane Pam Simulation

This shows a modeling of the storm surge for Katrina.  The text indicates that it includes simulated breaches of the floodwalls (eg. the floodwall along the 17th Street Canal was reduced to ground level).

Hurricane Katrina Hindcast

Notice the area west of Jefferson Parish.  This must be like New Orleans and Jefferson looked like before the Lake Pontchartrain levees were built.

New Orleans elevations.

July article in USN&WR

7/18/2005 US News & World Report

A 2000 article from a insurance trade publication predicts $10B insurance loss from New Orleans hurricane.

Lost City of New Orleans

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Forcasts:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/discohistory.asp?Stormid=AL122005

Actual path:

[J. J.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is the 5:00 PM Friday 8/26/05 forecast.  When I emailed my friend at just after 5:00 PM, I noted that was on the western edge in Baton Rouge.

The first report that showed it shifting to LA was the 8:00 PM forecast.  The 11:30 AM 8/26/05 showed it as Category Two storm, heading for the FL panhandle.  It's seen here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

One thing to note. There are more than 1 set of predictions. Here's some for Rita. Yes, 2 out of 7 currently have it hitting New Orleans.

[Smash255]

The initial thought was it would hit the west coast, but by midday on Friday, many of the forecasts showed a more westward turn towards Mississippi with New Orleans definatley being in the possible track, and talk that N.O could see a Cat 3 or Cat 4 by later in the day on Friday

[J. J.]

One thing to note. There are more than 1 set of predictions. Here's some for Rita. Yes, 2 out of 7 currently have it hitting New Orleans.

Three out of the seven show a track headind towards south Texas; two others show it not getting past the east coast of Florida  Also, the strength is not known.

It's a good site.  Here is the link:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/index.asp