German Election Prediction Contest

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Go on, have a go!

1. Predict the % of the vote for the following parties: CDU-CSU (bonus point for seperate %'s), SPD, Green, FDP, Left

2. Predict which party will win each Lander. Bonus points for correct %'s

3. Predict the five closest single member seats (or whatever they're called). Bonus points for getting the winning party right.

4. Predict the coalition formed after the election

[Jake]

1)

CDU-CSU 41%
SPD         31%
Left         10%
FDP           7%
Greens      7%
Other        4%

2)

Hamburg - SPD
Berlin - CDU
Bremen - SPD
Bavaria - CSU
Baden-Wurttemberg - CDU
Rhineland-Palatine - CDU
Saarland - SPD
Northrhine-Westphalia - CDU
Hesse - CDU
Thuringia - CDU
Saxony - CDU
Lower Saxony - SPD
Saxony-Anhalt - SPD
Schleswig-Holstein - CDU
Mecklenburg-West Pomerania - SPD
Brandenburg- SPD

3)

No idea at all

4)

 CDU-CSU-FDP

[Umengus]

Just for fun...

1)

CDU-CSU: 40%
SPD: 34%
Left: 9%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 7%
others: 4%

2)

Hamburg: SPD (36%)
Berlin: SPD (30%)
Bremen: SPD (42%)
Bavaria: CDU-CSU (56%)
Baden-Wurttemberg - CDU-CSU (45%)
Rhineland-Palatine - CDU-CSU (44%)
Saarland - CDU-CSU (37%)
Northrhine-Westphalia - CDU-CSU (41%)
Hesse - CDU-CSU (39%)
Thuringia - CDU-CSU (33%)
Saxony - CDU-CSU (35%)
Saxony-Anhalt - SPD (35%)
Schleswig-Holstein - CDU-CSU (41%)
Mecklenburg-West Pomerania - CDU-CSU (33%)
Brandenburg- SPD (38%)

3)

4)

CDU-CSU-SPD

[Platypus]

CDU-CSP: 40%
SPD: 33%
Left: 10%
FDP: 5%
Greens 8%
Other: 4%

SPD
SPD
SPD
CSU
CDU
CDU
CDU
CDU
CDU
CDU
SPD
SPD
CDU
CDU
SPD

3. No Clue
4. SPD-Greens-Left, but not at the end of the night....it'll take a while

I think the right won't get quite enough, and the Left, SPD and Greens will decide they'd rather work together then have Merkel as Chancellor.

[Middle-aged Europe]

1. Predict the % of the vote for the following parties: CDU-CSU (bonus point for seperate %'s), SPD, Green, FDP, Left

CDU/CSU 43.1%
SPD 31.3%
Left Party 8.6%
FDP 8.1%
Greens 6.3%

2. Predict which party will win each Lander. Bonus points for correct %'s

Baden-Württemberg: CDU (+40%)
Bavaria: CSU (+50%)
Berlin: CDU (+ 30%)
Brandenburg: SPD (+30 %)
Bremen: SPD (+40%)
Hamburg: SPD (+30%)
Hesse: CDU (+30%)
Lower Saxony: SPD (+ 30%)
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: CDU (+ 30%)
North Rhine-Westphalia: CDU (+ 30%)
Rheinland-Palatinate: CDU (+ 40%)
Saarland: CDU (+30%)
Saxony: CDU (+30%)
Saxony-Anhalt: SPD (+30%)
Schleswig-Holstein: CDU (+30%)
Thuringia: SPD (+30%)

3. Predict the five closest single member seats (or whatever they're called). Bonus points for getting the winning party right.

Boy, no idea... there are some close three-way races in Berlin (and East Germany as a whole), however.

Constituency/district 84 (Friedrichshein-Kreuzberg-Prenzlauer Berg Ost) would a possibility... it's a battle between the Green, the SPD and the Left Party candidate.   But I think incumbent Hans-Christian Ströbele (Greens) is going to be re-elected.

4. Predict the coalition formed after the election

CDU/CSU + FDP (if not, CDU/CSU + SPD)

[CO-OWL]

1.

CDU/CSU 41.6%
SPD 32.3%
Left Party 8.1%
FDP 8.4%
Greens 7.1%



2.

Baden-Württemberg: CDU
Bavaria: CSU
Berlin: SPD
Brandenburg: SPD
Bremen: SPD
Hamburg: SPD
Hesse: CDU
Lower Saxony: SPD
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: CDU
North Rhine-Westphalia: CDU
Rheinland-Palatinate: CDU
Saarland: CDU
Saxony: CDU
Saxony-Anhalt: SPD
Schleswig-Holstein: CDU
Thuringia: CDU



3.

No idea. But I think vote splitting will increase.




4.

CDU/CSU+FDP (if not, CDU/CSU+SPD).

[CO-OWL]

3. Predict the five closest single member seats (or whatever they're called). Bonus points for getting the winning party right.

Boy, no idea... there are some close three-way races in Berlin (and East Germany as a whole), however.

BTW, any idea who will win in Halle?

[Umengus]

add on:

Lower saxony: SPD

I  didn't know this state...

[Middle-aged Europe]

BTW, any idea who will win in Halle?

Right, we have one of those closes races here too. Ask me again this evening.

Wouldn't be too surprised though when Riemann-Hanewinckel (SPD), Bergner (CDU) and Sitte (Left) will each win 31%, 30%, and 29% of the votes in the end (not particularly in this order).

[minionofmidas]

1. Predict the % of the vote for the following parties: CDU-CSU (bonus point for seperate %'s), SPD, Green, FDP, Left

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Union 40.5%
SPD 34.5%
Greens 8.2%
Left 7.8%
FDP 6.3%
other 2.7%

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Union - Bavaria, Baden Württemberg, Hessen ( ), Rhineland Pfalz, Saxony, Schleswig Holstein
SPD - all others

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You know that this is frigging impossible, right?

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grand

[jaichind]

1)

CDU-CSU 41%
SPD         34%
Left           9%
Greens      7%
FDP           6%
Other        3%

2)

Hamburg - SPD
Berlin - SPD
Bremen - SPD
Bavaria - CSU
Baden-Wurttemberg - CDU
Rhineland-Palatine - CDU
Saarland - SPD
Northrhine-Westphalia - CDU
Hesse - CDU
Thuringia - CDU
Saxony - CDU
Lower Saxony - SPD
Saxony-Anhalt - SPD
Schleswig-Holstein - CDU
Mecklenburg-West Pomerania - SPD
Brandenburg- SPD

3)

No clue

4)

CDU-CSU-SPD
 
 
 
 
 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ahem, in the light of recent developments I would like to withdraw my prediction.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BTW, any idea who will win in Halle?

Right, we have one of those closes races here too. Ask me again this evening.

Wouldn't be too surprised though when Riemann-Hanewinckel (SPD), Bergner (CDU) and Sitte (Left) will each win 31%, 30%, and 29% of the votes in the end (not particularly in this order).

The results in my constituency...

Christel Riemann-Hanewinckel (SPD): 36.0%
Petra Sitte (Left): 27.4%
Christoph Bergner (CDU): 24.8%
Cornelia Pieper (FDP): 4.9%
Dietmar Weihrich (Greens): 3.5%

Hanewinckel has now won her seat the 4th time in a row (1994, 1998, 2002, 2005).


Btw, the closest single member seat result was the one in Odenwald (Hesse), where the CDU candidate defeated the SPD candidate with a margin of only 82 votes!

[minionofmidas]

BTW, any idea who will win in Halle?

Right, we have one of those closes races here too. Ask me again this evening.

Wouldn't be too surprised though when Riemann-Hanewinckel (SPD), Bergner (CDU) and Sitte (Left) will each win 31%, 30%, and 29% of the votes in the end (not particularly in this order).

The results in my constituency...

Christel Riemann-Hanewinckel (SPD): 36.0%
Petra Sitte (Left): 27.4%
Christoph Bergner (CDU): 24.8%
Cornelia Pieper (FDP): 4.9%
Dietmar Weihrich (Greens): 3.5%

Hanewinckel has now won her seat the 4th time in a row (1994, 1998, 2002, 2005).


Btw, the closest single member seat result was the one in Odenwald (Hesse), where the CDU candidate defeated the SPD candidate with a margin of only 82 votes!

Yeah, Odenwald has been something of a "mirror" of federal results recently. In fact, several seats in Southern Hessen have been - Hanau, Wetterau (but these were held by the SPD.)

My constituency, the SPD guy Gregor Amann pulled through, but in the other Frankfurt constituency, that horrible woman Erika Steinbach won for the first time since 94. Which means Frankfurt will have 5 MPs and not 6.
(Steinbach CDU, Fischer Greens, Otto FDP, and Gehrcke Left had safe list spots. Steinbach's SPD opponent Ulli Nissen needed to win the direct seat, as did Frankfurt I's two main contenders, Markus Frank CDU and Gregor Amann SPD. In the theoretical case of a Green result of about 10% nationally, Omid Nouripour Greens might have made yet another Frankfurt MP- he was 6th on the Green party state list.)
The precinct I sat in and counted in went thus -
70% turnout
SPD 42% - no change
CDU 29% - down 5 points
Greens 12% - no change
FDP - 8 or so, up a tad
Left - 7 or so, up 4-5 points
others - 2-3%, half of that NPD.

[Gustaf]

WHo won what states?

[ag]

WHo won what states?

I'd posted it in another thread - but here is a repeat:

Schleswig-Holstein - SPD
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - SPD
Hamburg - SPD
Niedersachsen - SPD
Bremen - SPD
Brandenburg - SPD (runner-up - Linke.PDS)
Sachsen-Anhalt - SPD (runner-up - Linke.PDS)
Berlin - SPD
Nordrhein-Westfalen - SPD
Sachsen - CDU
Hessen - SPD
Thüringen - SPD (runner-up - Linke.PDS)
Rheinland-Pfalz - CDU
Baden-Württemberg - CDU
Bayern - CSU
Saarland - SPD

Yes, there are no changes from the previous election.