Realistic West Wing Election

[Keystone Phil]

Let's use the current matchup for the next West Wing election. For this situation, let's say there are NO MAJOR THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES IN THE RUNNING. How would it end up?


Arnold Vinick/Ray Sullivan (R) vs. Matthew Santos/Leo McGarry



My take on it....





Vinick - 312
Santos - 226

[Alcon]

I thought you said "realistic."

[True Democrat]

The religious right may abandon Vinick somewhat, but maybe only like a 15% loss among this group.  That's why places like Alabama and Mississippi don't top 60%.  I say a huge Vinick victory, though Hispanic turnout is huge:



Vinick wins it 395-143, with the popular being something like 55-44.

[ATFFL]

I thought you said "realistic."

Based on how they are portrayed and if they were in the real world, there would be a hell of a lot more blue on that map.  Santos is an uncontrollable loose cannon, Leo is a horrid VP choice, Santos stand on drivers licenses for illegals would kill him, the fiasco of a DNC would make them all seem like amateurs.  Leo was in charge, Santos was supposed to go up and concede, he instead makes an impassioned plea for votes.   Even the left wing talking heads would have to rip on Leo for that.  Not to mention there is the massive scandal waiting in the wings.  THe one where Leo's hand picked replacement leaked top secret military information to the press to embarrass the President into action.  Oh yeah, and Leo's recent health problems.

By all rights the Santos campaign should be a joke approaching Dukakis country.

[YRABNNRM]

The religious right may abandon Santos somewhat, but maybe only like a 15% loss among this group.  That's why places like Alabama and Mississippi don't top 60%. 

You mean Vinick?

[Keystone Phil]

I thought you said "realistic."

Based on their views, I think my map is realistic but alittle more favorable to Santos.

Also, I don't know why PA is going for Santos in my map. It would go for Vinick.

[Defarge]

Throw AZ into Santos's column, possibly California, and make Texas a bit less blue, and I agree with Santorum's map.

[True Democrat]

Throw AZ into Santos's column, possibly California, and make Texas a bit less blue, and I agree with Santorum's map.

Wow, I never knew Santorum posted on this forum

[True Democrat]

The religious right may abandon Santos somewhat, but maybe only like a 15% loss among this group.  That's why places like Alabama and Mississippi don't top 60%.

You mean Vinick?

Yeah, that's what I meant.

[Defarge]

Throw AZ into Santos's column, possibly California, and make Texas a bit less blue, and I agree with Santorum's map.

Wow, I never knew Santorum posted on this forum

Woops.  I'm sure Keystone will take it as a compliment, so no harm done

[George W. Hobbes]

Judging from tonight's episode...Santos will win it...unrealistically.

[Keystone Phil]

Throw AZ into Santos's column, possibly California, and make Texas a bit less blue, and I agree with Santorum's map.

Wow, I never knew Santorum posted on this forum

Woops.  I'm sure Keystone will take it as a compliment, so no harm done

[ATFFL]

Judging from tonight's episode...Santos will win it...unrealistically.

It might be a lot of fun if the Santos campaign collapsed.  They are set up with a horde of problems to overcome.  The hero cycle would say they overcome them one by one and squeak out a win. 

We saw something similar when Bartlet was reelected and the nation ignored all the negatives that would have, realisticly, brought him down.  It would be interesting to see a campaign with everything agqainst it watch everything they do blow up in their faces.

In other words, it would be fun if being down 9% was the highlight of their campaign.

I expect the ratings will decide the election.  If they are strong and renewal seems likely, they will have Santos win for fear of losing their liberal core audience with a GOP President.  If the change to a new night hurts them, The show will end with Vinick taking the oath.

[Alcon]

I thought you said "realistic."

Based on their views, I think my map is realistic but alittle more favorable to Santos.

Also, I don't know why PA is going for Santos in my map. It would go for Vinick.

I know.  It's reasonable.  I've just always wanted to post that to see what it feels like to be Philip.

[AkSaber]

One question: If Vinick wins California, how could he lose Nevada and Florida?

[ATFFL]

One question: If Vinick wins California, how could he lose Nevada and Florida?

Home state advantage in CA.

[AkSaber]

One question: If Vinick wins California, how could he lose Nevada and Florida?

Home state advantage in CA.

Oh. Is he the governor or something?

I still think if he won CA, he'd take NV and FL.

[True Democrat]

One question: If Vinick wins California, how could he lose Nevada and Florida?

Home state advantage in CA.

Oh. Is he the governor or something?

I still think if he won CA, he'd take NV and FL.

He is the extremely popular moderate Republican Senator from California who is beloved by all.  Santos is the first Hispanic candidate, giving him good shots in Nevada and Florida.

[WiseGuy]

When are they going to show the election?  I don't normally watch the show, but I'm curious about it.

[ATFFL]

When are they going to show the election?  I don't normally watch the show, but I'm curious about it.

Probably in the February sweeps.  Right now they are just starting the campaign.  Last night's episode was 5 days after the end of the Democratic National Convention (which featured some unsually bad political mistakes on the part of the writers) and 105 days before election day.  They are trying to get NBC to do a live debate between Vinick and Santos in the November sweeps.

Last season focused heavily on the primaries and Santos unlikely win.  Vinick pretty much walked to the nomination wih only one challenger of note, Reverend Don Butler (played by Don S. Davis of Stargate SG-1 fame.)  Rev. Butler is, obvoiusly, a religious conservative.  I must say he was very well portrayed.  He was shown to be honest and genuine in his beliefs and not a scheming hypocrite.  He refused the VP position because he could not run with someone who did not regularly attend church.  He also did sobefore it was formally offered so Vinick could honestly tell whoever he chose that the VP slot was not offered to anyone else before him.

I thought they might bring Rev. Butler back as a 3rd party candidate to pull right wing votes from Vinick.  It would be about the only realistic way to give Santos a shot.  Spoilers I have seen from episodes indicate this is not the case.

[WiseGuy]

When are they going to show the election?  I don't normally watch the show, but I'm curious about it.

Vinick pretty much walked to the nomination wih only one challenger of note, Reverend Don Butler (played by Don S. Davis of Stargate SG-1 fame.)

Cool.  Too bad I missed that episode

[Keystone Phil]

They are trying to get NBC to do a live debate between Vinick and Santos in the November sweeps.

I don't know how they're going to pull that off. It may actually come across as lame.

[ATFFL]

They are trying to get NBC to do a live debate between Vinick and Santos in the November sweeps.

I don't know how they're going to pull that off. It may actually come across as lame.

As I heard, the debate would have some prefilmed stuff leading up to it, and following it.  It would be more a gimmick than anything else.  The big problem would be if there was a gaffe in the live stuff, they would have to reshoot some scenes to mention it.

[George W. Hobbes]

That'd be really interesting to have a live debate...I'd go for it.

But c'mon....Glenallen Walken '06!

[True Democrat]

There were some maps in this week's episode.  If I interpreted the map correctly, the red states are what the Santos campaign are focusing on: