Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 21, 2014, 03:04:52 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  Arkansas - Tie - Rasmussen Reports
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: Arkansas - Tie - Rasmussen Reports  (Read 3742 times)
ShapeShifter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2749


View Profile
« on: May 03, 2004, 02:53:05 pm »
Ignore

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Arkansas_May.htm

Logged

tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35657
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2004, 02:55:43 pm »
Ignore

Arkansas ain't winnable baby...

But we'll win AR before we win FL.
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
lidaker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 750
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: 0.88, S: -4.67

View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2004, 03:01:22 pm »
Ignore

If it's 45-45 it's not unwinnable. However, it would be interesting to hear Vorlon's view on this one.
Logged

Long live the memory of Edmund Burke
Reds4
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 768


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2004, 03:07:26 pm »
Ignore

Anyone have any input on why Rasmussen nationally keeps showing the race a tie.. kerry will go up by 3 or 4, then bush come even, then the same thing will happen the other way.. but Kerry seems to be polling really well in all the state polls. Arkansas- a tie, Wisconsin- up 8, Ohio up 4, Iowa up 10, and so on... From the polling rasmussen is putting out it seems he is saying this will be a national dead heat but the electoral college will go to Kerry by a lot. Any input on why the disconnect between the state and national polls of rasmussen?
Logged
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72511
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2004, 03:43:32 pm »
Ignore

Arkansas is the only southern state Kerry has a chance in (I don't count Florida as south). Most people forget that pretty much the entire state except the northwest and outer Little Rock suburbs is still reliably Democratic, even in presidential elections.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
elcorazon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2213


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2004, 03:58:13 pm »
Ignore

Arkansas is the only southern state Kerry has a chance in (I don't count Florida as south). Most people forget that pretty much the entire state except the northwest and outer Little Rock suburbs is still reliably Democratic, even in presidential elections.
How about Louisiana?  I know it's a stretch, but I view Virginia as trending democratic... probably still safely Republican in 2004, but maybe not much longer.
Logged


"The most important thing to remember is, no matter what anybody tells you, it is never, ever unpatriotic or un-American to question anything in a democracy"
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21010


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2004, 04:04:03 pm »
Ignore

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
pieman
Full Member
***
Posts: 141


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2004, 04:13:38 pm »
Ignore

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2004, 04:14:42 pm »
Ignore

If it's 45-45 it's not unwinnable. However, it would be interesting to hear Vorlon's view on this one.

First, the usual standard methodological rants on a Rasmussen State poll...

<< insert standard rant....>>

One Day Robot State poll...+/- 4.5% 19/20 - could be a blip...
One day polls - bad - robots - no call backs.....Sunday - Bad day to poll.

<< rant over >>

Rasmussen is fairly tight lipped about the internal guts of how he does his one day state snapshots.  My educated guess is that they are far less tightly "constrained" than his daily tracking poll.

He almost certainly is (or at least should) be building in some fairly aggressive weights to take into account the probabilities of reaching various demographic groups in a one day poll. (especially on a sunday)

These standard caveats being said however, there is enough data out there for some broader conclusions.

Arkansas has a lot of "PMCs" (precarious middle class)  people who are doing "ok" economically, not poor, but lack deep financial reserves to let them feel comfortable about their lives and their futures.  Their employers are often smaller, they may or may not have reliable, portable health care.  Their jobs may or may not be secure.  In short, they are vulnerable.  They are not the captain of their own ship, their are along for the ride on somebody elses ship..

It is these people, many who vote GOP on social issues like abortion, general religious feelings, patriotism, etc, which are eroding on Bush, and Arkansas has a ton of them.

As I believe I have posted before (??) , Bush is really starting to especially feel a hit among married women in his popularity.  This is a group he just has to hold Kerry to at least a tie on or he is in real difficulty.

I have swung Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin back over to Kerry based on this errosion among women.  

The Bush folks have picked up on this breakdown among married women and I expect you will see Bush launch a "jobs/kids/soft & fuzzy" offensive quite soon.

I think this torture thing in Iraq will have a far larger political effect than the commentators seem to think.

The torture thing is hard to impossible to poll in the sense that you can't really draw a straight logical line between geneva convention violations in Iraq and how this makes you vote,

This cannot however make anybody feel better about what is going on in Iraq, and to the degree that "angst" builds about Iraq it hurts Bush. (Think PMKs - they Support Bush and the war because it is the "right" thing to do... after the torture photos is it still the right thing to do?)

I think a lot of this is showing up in Married women who usually are the "softest" GOP supporters when they do vote GOP.

A good indicator to watch is if the Kerry folks throw some extra ads into Arkansas this flight of ads.  

Little Rock is pretty cheap to buy and if they sense an opening I expect that Arkansas will get a real good dose of the new Kerry ads (which are pretty decent BTW IMHO, not gamebreakers by any means, but pretty decent)

Don't quite have enough data to have anything super hard in terms of Arkansas conclusions, but botton line to me is that this poll is not crazy or a fluke.




« Last Edit: May 03, 2004, 05:37:13 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2004, 04:31:56 pm »
Ignore

Anyone have any input on why Rasmussen nationally keeps showing the race a tie.. kerry will go up by 3 or 4, then bush come even, then the same thing will happen the other way.. but Kerry seems to be polling really well in all the state polls. Arkansas- a tie, Wisconsin- up 8, Ohio up 4, Iowa up 10, and so on... From the polling rasmussen is putting out it seems he is saying this will be a national dead heat but the electoral college will go to Kerry by a lot. Any input on why the disconnect between the state and national polls of rasmussen?

An interesting and observant question....

Rasmusssen is doing a hard weight in his daily tracking poll to a predetermined distribution of DEms/GOP/Ind which will tends to give you both a very stable result, and one which will not drift too far from dead even...

re one day polls...

One day polls have some inherest challenges built into them.  One of  the obvious of these is that you can't talk to people who are not home.

Normally when you do a poll, you select your sample of XXX phone numbers, and then if you do not reach a certain phone number, you try back tomorrow, or the day after till you have reached as much as you can of the original sample, and then only after you have failed to reach a phone number many times, do you substitute in a replicate number. (You usually try a number about 10 to 12 times before you give up and replace the number)

This compensates for the fact that different demographic groups have diferent social, travel and holiday patterns.

The elderly, for example, go out partying far less on Friday night than to 21 year olds, Republicans tend to leave the area more on weekend vacations, etc...

To use a simple example, imagine you did a poll in Green Bay Wisconsin on the day of a Packers game about building the Packers a new stadium.

 A very meaningful chunk of Green Bay Foorball Fans (whom we presume may disproportionately favor a new statium) are at the football game, and hence a Sunday afternoon poll would not reach them - hence your sample would not be a valid snapshot of the town...

If you called back all the numbers where you got no answer on Sunday afternoon by doing "call backs" on Monday, Tuesday, etc till you reached all your original sample, you could get around this problem.  Obviously a one day snapshot poll makes this impossible.

(This is the same reason why the "snapshot" polls some networks try on the night of the Presidential debates are deeply problematic as well...)

I am assuming Rasmussen is building in some systemic counter weights to this "one day" problem by weighting his sample upwards in terms of the number of boomers, Rebpublicans, etc...

How and to what degree he is doing this I do not know.  Perhaps his new "premium" service will shed some light on this..?
« Last Edit: May 03, 2004, 05:21:34 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35657
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2004, 04:35:35 pm »
Ignore

How and to what degree he is doing this I do not know.  Perhaps his new "premium" service will shed some light on this..?

Are you going to sign up for that?
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2004, 04:41:13 pm »
Ignore

How and to what degree he is doing this I do not know.  Perhaps his new "premium" service will shed some light on this..?

Are you going to sign up for that?

I am undecided on that actually... Smiley

Rasmussen is a "decent" pollster (B+ or so) - certainly not an idiot by any means.  I am just not sure there is enough "meat" in his data to tell me anything I don't already know.



Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35657
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2004, 04:48:26 pm »
Ignore

How and to what degree he is doing this I do not know.  Perhaps his new "premium" service will shed some light on this..?

Are you going to sign up for that?

I am undecided on that actually... Smiley

Rasmussen is a "decent" pollster (B+ or so) - certainly not an idiot by any means.  I am just not sure there is enough "meat" in his data to tell me anything I don't already know.

Have you ever e-mailed them?
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31302
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2004, 04:51:12 pm »
Ignore

What evidence do you have that Bush doing bad among "married women"? As I said before I don't much faith in polls this early on. Give it until about August before I believe any poll.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2004, 04:51:45 pm »
Ignore

How and to what degree he is doing this I do not know.  Perhaps his new "premium" service will shed some light on this..?

Are you going to sign up for that?

I am undecided on that actually... Smiley

Rasmussen is a "decent" pollster (B+ or so) - certainly not an idiot by any means.  I am just not sure there is enough "meat" in his data to tell me anything I don't already know.

Have you ever e-mailed them?


Oh ya.. Scott and I have emailed back and forth maybe 10 times or so.  He "kinda" answers my questions Cheesy

Pollsters hold on to their "secrets" like Col. Sanders does his 13 secret herbs & spices...
« Last Edit: May 03, 2004, 06:22:05 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35657
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2004, 04:51:55 pm »
Ignore

What evidence do you have that Bush doing bad among "married women"? As I said before I don't much faith in polls this early on. Give it until about August before I believe any poll.

He is THE VORLON.  He knows.  Trust me.
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26905


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2004, 06:15:02 pm »
Ignore

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

They can't remain strong GOP, since they weren't in 2000... Tongue

I think both will go Bush, but they're not strong...

Interesting analyses by Vorlon, as always. I hope your right...Kerry couls use another battleground state...
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31302
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2004, 06:19:07 pm »
Ignore

What evidence do you have that Bush doing bad among "married women"? As I said before I don't much faith in polls this early on. Give it until about August before I believe any poll.

He is THE VORLON.  He knows.  Trust me.

Though he is very insightful and has a lot of information. I still do not put my faith is polls in May. Give it to August, we will start to get a real picture by then.
Logged
Lunar
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30616
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2004, 06:21:38 pm »
Ignore

As I believe I have posted before (??) , Bush is really starting to especially feel a hit among married women in his popularity.  This is a group he just has to hold Kerry to at least a tie on or he is in real difficulty.

I have swung Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin back over to Kerry based on this errosion among women.  

The Bush folks have picked up on this breakdown among married women and I expect you will see Bush launch a "jobs/kids/soft & fuzzy" offensive quite soon.


You'll notice the new Kerry ads have quotes from his daughter and wife.  Hmmmm...
Logged

this is real
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2004, 06:29:50 pm »
Ignore

As I believe I have posted before (??) , Bush is really starting to especially feel a hit among married women in his popularity.  This is a group he just has to hold Kerry to at least a tie on or he is in real difficulty.

I have swung Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin back over to Kerry based on this errosion among women.  

The Bush folks have picked up on this breakdown among married women and I expect you will see Bush launch a "jobs/kids/soft & fuzzy" offensive quite soon.


You'll notice the new Kerry ads have quotes from his daughter and wife.  Hmmmm...

That is NOT a co-incidence...  
Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2004, 06:31:46 pm »
Ignore


Quote
I still do not put my faith is polls in May. Give it to August, we will start to get a real picture by then.

The "horserace" question, (who is ahead, behind, etc ) I agree is pretty worthless right now...

A "likely" voter in May.... if I actually knew what that meant in any meaningful way, I might then know what being ahead or behind among likely voters actually meant then too... Smiley

I disagree however about the fundementals behind the data.  Base voter attitudes, issues, etc are very pollable right now.  

Indeed, I might argue since a lot of the "undecided" have not really tuned in yet, their answers to many many questiosn are more rather than less honest this far out than they might be after they lock in on a candidate.

just my 2 cents worth... Smiley

Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2004, 06:36:54 pm »
Ignore

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

They can't remain strong GOP, since they weren't in 2000... Tongue


Point to Gustaf.
Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
JNB
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 395


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2004, 06:39:36 pm »
Ignore



   Kerry looks like he is starting a two front attack against Bush, a soft and personable campaign to chip away at thje married female vote, and a hard edged one that attacks jobs being sent to China to gain as the Vorlon says, PMC male voters.

   In my strong opinion, the bending over backwards for busienss intrests that Bush has done, leading to a large budget hole due to tax cuts that people for the most part were not asking for, alloing jobs being sent over to China and having admin officals defend this practice(stupid move politically in todays enviroment) and his amnesty plan for i llegal immigrants has cost, IMO, Bush in the polls 5-10% nationally. The fact Bush has lost support in the midwest is because of these stands he has taken.
Logged

Economic Left/Right: -1.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 5.23
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35657
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2004, 06:41:02 pm »
Ignore

Oh ya.. Scott and I have emailed back and forth maybe 10 times or so.  He "kinda" answers my questions Cheesy

Pollsters hold on to their "secrets" like Col. Sanders does his 13 secret herbs & spices...

I just e-mailed him...I asked him your question about the packers game.
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2004, 06:45:20 pm »
Ignore

Oh ya.. Scott and I have emailed back and forth maybe 10 times or so.  He "kinda" answers my questions Cheesy

Pollsters hold on to their "secrets" like Col. Sanders does his 13 secret herbs & spices...

I just e-mailed him...I asked him your question about the packers game.

cool...!

Let me know what he sends back.  What exactly did you ask him if I may ask..? (Scott usually answers his email on Saturday mornings BTW)
Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines