Arkansas - Tie - Rasmussen Reports
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StatesRights
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« Reply #25 on: May 03, 2004, 06:45:59 PM »

As I believe I have posted before (??) , Bush is really starting to especially feel a hit among married women in his popularity.  This is a group he just has to hold Kerry to at least a tie on or he is in real difficulty.

I have swung Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin back over to Kerry based on this errosion among women.  

The Bush folks have picked up on this breakdown among married women and I expect you will see Bush launch a "jobs/kids/soft & fuzzy" offensive quite soon.


You'll notice the new Kerry ads have quotes from his daughter and wife.  Hmmmm...

That is NOT a co-incidence...  

If Kerry has any sense he will try to keep his wife out of this campaign as much as possible.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2004, 06:52:58 PM »

cool...!

Let me know what he sends back.  What exactly did you ask him if I may ask..? (Scott usually answers his email on Saturday mornings BTW)

Transcript of mt e-mail: (keep in mind I already know the answer to the first question and I just asked it to lead off)

"Hi.  I love your site.  A few questions:
 
1. What Party ID weights do you use?  (ie D, R, I)
 
2. How do you weight state polls, which can sometimes be inaccurate?  For example, teens are out more on friday than seniors, etc.?
 
Thanks,
Dave"

Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2004, 07:23:47 PM »

cool...!

Let me know what he sends back.  What exactly did you ask him if I may ask..? (Scott usually answers his email on Saturday mornings BTW)

Transcript of mt e-mail: (keep in mind I already know the answer to the first question and I just asked it to lead off)

"Hi.  I love your site.  A few questions:
 
1. What Party ID weights do you use?  (ie D, R, I)
 
2. How do you weight state polls, which can sometimes be inaccurate?  For example, teens are out more on friday than seniors, etc.?
 
Thanks,
Dave"

Smiley

Let me know if you get a "straight" answer... I have mainly gotten general answers that I had to "read between the lines" on....

chop chop! Cheesy
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2004, 07:24:33 PM »

Let me know if you get a "straight" answer... I have mainly gotten general answers that I had to "read between the lines" on....

chop chop! Cheesy

I will the post his response right here at this board.  Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2004, 07:42:02 PM »

Let me know if you get a "straight" answer... I have mainly gotten general answers that I had to "read between the lines" on....

chop chop! Cheesy

I will the post his response right here at this board.  Smiley

I hope he gives you an EXACT answer on the Party ID, he gave me about 2 parargraphs worth that I "think" said a +3 dem weight... I am eager to see if I under stood him corectly... Cheesy
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pieman
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« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2004, 08:45:17 PM »

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

They can't remain strong GOP, since they weren't in 2000... Tongue


Point to Gustaf.

The newbie twists in the wind as Gustaf cuts him down to size and Vorlon tallies the score. Angry

For the record, Virginia was +8% and Arkansas was +5% in 2000, and there is no reason to believe they will be any stronger or weaker relative to the national average result in 2004.

Strong is such a relative term . . .
What ever the term, these states will trend GOP just as much in 2004 as in 2000.

Perhaps the word strong was too strong? Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2004, 08:57:46 PM »

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

They can't remain strong GOP, since they weren't in 2000... Tongue


Point to Gustaf.

The newbie twists in the wind as Gustaf cuts him down to size and Vorlon tallies the score. Angry

For the record, Virginia was +8% and Arkansas was +5% in 2000, and there is no reason to believe they will be any stronger or weaker relative to the national average result in 2004.

Strong is such a relative term . . .
What ever the term, these states will trend GOP just as much in 2004 as in 2000.

Perhaps the word strong was too strong? Smiley

Watch out for Gustaf.. he's a killer.. Cheesy
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StatesRights
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« Reply #32 on: May 03, 2004, 10:03:11 PM »

Vorlon please answer my question as to where you get the information that "married women" are leaving support for Bush behind?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #33 on: May 03, 2004, 10:40:47 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2004, 10:43:54 PM by The Vorlon »

Vorlon please answer my question as to where you get the information that "married women" are leaving support for Bush behind?

A couple indicators

The "gender gap" has risen substantially poll to poll (ie a Gallup from 6 weeks ago versus a Gallup from 2 weeks ago)  In ths case of Gallup the rise was 4%, in Tipp it was 3%, in Zogby it was also 4%.

Single women already break hugely from the Dems, so the change has to be in married women.

In the March Quinipiac from Penn Bush lost women 42/41, in the April Quinipiac (even though Bush lead went from +4 to +6 overall) he lost women 48/39 ) a negative change among women of 8%)

If you want to be picky, you could limit my comment to "all women" as opposed to "married" women, but in reality single women are reliably democratic, it's the married ones that are swing voters.

There are tons of examples.  I know it's true cause I look for gender gap changes in every poll I look at - it's just about the best indicator of a direction change there is in an election - women are fickle after all Smiley

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ian
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« Reply #34 on: May 03, 2004, 10:52:58 PM »

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

Not too long ago, there was an AR poll that said that the state had 5% more Dems than Repubs.  We're not strong GOP, we're trend Dem.
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« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2004, 12:02:19 AM »

Kerry can win Arkansas. The example of it not going dem from '76-'92 is a poor one, since '80 and '88 were blowout years and '84 a 49 state landslide. and judging by what other states he carried, Clinton would've likely carried Arkansas even if he had come from another southern state. It's a swing state and a fairly good bellweather.

All Kerry needs to do is not make the mistake Gore did and get Clinton to campaign for him.

Now as for Virginia, Bush will win it, but it'll be a lot closer than people think. Bush had a very poor showing there in 2000 compared to the past, it was his third worst southern state after Arkansas and Tennesee (which greatly benefited from the favorite son factor). I don't see how anyone can't see the state changing, the northern part has much more in common with New Jersey than Alabama and the Virginia Beach/Newport News area is also developing and starting to turn into an area similar to Atlanta or New Orleans, not really southern and quite liberal despite the area. I know many people from Virginia, and none of them think of themselves as being southern, not even the ones from Richmond, the capital of the Confederacy! Virginia is becoming similar to Florida. I wouldn't be shocked if a poll came out showing it close and if Kerry decided to sink some cash into the state, and I am certain it will be contended in 2008.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2004, 12:14:25 AM »

Kerry can win Arkansas. The example of it not going dem from '76-'92 is a poor one, since '80 and '88 were blowout years and '84 a 49 state landslide. and judging by what other states he carried, Clinton would've likely carried Arkansas even if he had come from another southern state. It's a swing state and a fairly good bellweather.

All Kerry needs to do is not make the mistake Gore did and get Clinton to campaign for him.

Now as for Virginia, Bush will win it, but it'll be a lot closer than people think. Bush had a very poor showing there in 2000 compared to the past, it was his third worst southern state after Arkansas and Tennesee (which greatly benefited from the favorite son factor). I don't see how anyone can't see the state changing, the northern part has much more in common with New Jersey than Alabama and the Virginia Beach/Newport News area is also developing and starting to turn into an area similar to Atlanta or New Orleans, not really southern and quite liberal despite the area. I know many people from Virginia, and none of them think of themselves as being southern, not even the ones from Richmond, the capital of the Confederacy! Virginia is becoming similar to Florida. I wouldn't be shocked if a poll came out showing it close and if Kerry decided to sink some cash into the state, and I am certain it will be contended in 2008.

Well, whether you like the fact or not both Virginia and Florida ARE Southern states. I know you'd like to see the total dismantling of the south but the fact remains that VA and Florida are traditional Southern states.
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« Reply #37 on: May 04, 2004, 12:16:39 AM »

I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #38 on: May 04, 2004, 12:18:28 AM »

I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

Orland and FT L is not ALL of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington are NOT ALL of VA. Good grief Orlando and Ft L may be 2% of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington may be 2% of VA.
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« Reply #39 on: May 04, 2004, 12:18:30 AM »

There is a huge difference between all of the Southern cities:
Houston
Tampa
Atlanta
Richmond
New Orleans
Little Rock
etc.
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BRTD
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« Reply #40 on: May 04, 2004, 12:21:18 AM »

I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

Orland and FT L is not ALL of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington are NOT ALL of VA. Good grief Orlando and Ft L may be 2% of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington may be 2% of VA.

only about 20% of Florida's population lives on the northern strip of counties. The rest is not the south. And while only about 30% of Virginia's population lives in the northern region, it's growth and other developments means the state will be a swing state some day.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2004, 12:21:54 AM »

I'm sorry but seeing 2 cities in Florida and calling it "non-Souther" is ridiculous. It would be like seeing LA and San Fransisco and calling California a very liberal state. Tampa, Jacksonville, Pensacola, and most all of the rural counties of Florida are very very Southern.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2004, 12:24:10 AM »

I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

Orland and FT L is not ALL of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington are NOT ALL of VA. Good grief Orlando and Ft L may be 2% of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington may be 2% of VA.

only about 20% of Florida's population lives on the northern strip of counties. The rest is not the south. And while only about 30% of Virginia's population lives in the northern region, it's growth and other developments means the state will be a swing state some day.

So only the PanHandle is Southern? Ok call Dixie, Polk, Ockechobee, Collier, Hillsborough, etc etc non southern? Those counties are all along the I-4 corrider or next to the lake.  You've never been to Florida, Orlando and Ft Lauderdale don't count. lol
I bet you could go to South side VA or Tidewater or the Mountains and call them "non-Southern"? lol
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« Reply #43 on: May 04, 2004, 12:28:12 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2004, 12:36:39 AM by Senator Beet »

I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

Orland and FT L is not ALL of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington are NOT ALL of VA. Good grief Orlando and Ft L may be 2% of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington may be 2% of VA.

only about 20% of Florida's population lives on the northern strip of counties. The rest is not the south. And while only about 30% of Virginia's population lives in the northern region, it's growth and other developments means the state will be a swing state some day.

I'm doubtful. Only Arlington, Alexandria (who are already Democratic and have stagnating populations), and Fairfax county (slowly trending Democratic county of 1 million people), and Prince William county (300,000), both of which are fast-growing, can definitely be considered "Northern Virginia" but I think this (total around 1.6 million) accounts for 22% of the state population. Beyond that, what the hell Northern Virginia is, is confusing:

http://www.baconsrebellion.com/Issues03/08-11/Northern_virginia.htm

Based off population density, I wouldn't say it goes much beyond Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince George's.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #44 on: May 04, 2004, 12:31:44 AM »

Northern VA is the Republican side of DC and Maryland is the Democrat side of DC. Look at the counties in both states surrounding DC and you will see what I mean.
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« Reply #45 on: May 04, 2004, 12:34:43 AM »

I never said the whole states weren't southern, just that certain parts are. After all one Maryland and Delaware have southern parts to them, but that certainly doesn't make Baltimore or Wilmington southern cities, or the states on a whole. Virginia I would still classify as a southern state, even though a significant amount of the population lives in an area which is not. Florida I would not, I looked up all the counties you listed and they are rather rural and sparsely populated. The same way the counties of California that actually have people in them are rather liberal, Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and the Orlando area have the bulk of Florida's population outside of the panhandle, and they are not southern.
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« Reply #46 on: May 04, 2004, 12:38:03 AM »

[qoute]
 Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and the Orlando area have the bulk of Florida's population outside of the panhandle, and they are not southern.
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Those are only 4!! counties outside the Panhandle. What about Hillsborough, Polk, Pinellas, Hernando? All of Central Florida is not sparsely populated! I would hardly call any of those counties I just mentioned sparse. Lakeland is one of the biggest cities in the region and Polk is THE largest county in Florida. Tampa is very Republican as is St. Petersburg and Sarasota. Miami is just one city and Orlando is a world of its own, but Orlando and Miami do not a Florida make.
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« Reply #47 on: May 04, 2004, 12:42:24 AM »

Polk only has about 500k people. There's over a million in Palm Beach and I'm sure there are plenty more larger counties. If Tampa and St. Petersburg are heavily Republican, why does Tampa keep electing Jim Davis and why did Gore win Pinellas county?
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« Reply #48 on: May 04, 2004, 12:48:19 AM »

Polk only has about 500k people. There's over a million in Palm Beach and I'm sure there are plenty more larger counties. If Tampa and St. Petersburg are heavily Republican, why does Tampa keep electing Jim Davis and why did Gore win Pinellas county?

Tampas Mayor Pam Iorio is a Republican, Pinellas' mayor Rick Baker is a Republican and the only reason that Pinellas went Demo is because of the black population. I do not determine D/R when I talk about being southern. Southerners can be either Democrat/Republican or Black/White. Here is a map of counties

Why Florida IS Southern
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Gustaf
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« Reply #49 on: May 04, 2004, 06:05:16 AM »

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

They can't remain strong GOP, since they weren't in 2000... Tongue


Point to Gustaf.

The newbie twists in the wind as Gustaf cuts him down to size and Vorlon tallies the score. Angry

For the record, Virginia was +8% and Arkansas was +5% in 2000, and there is no reason to believe they will be any stronger or weaker relative to the national average result in 2004.

Strong is such a relative term . . .
What ever the term, these states will trend GOP just as much in 2004 as in 2000.

Perhaps the word strong was too strong? Smiley

Watch out for Gustaf.. he's a killer.. Cheesy

Hey! I'm a nice guy... Sad

I think that any state that is 8% or lower is not strong...a swing of 4% would win it for Kerry, that's not much. A margin of say 52-48 would be enough to put Arkansas in play, for instance. And there are signs of VA trending Dem.

Personally I think that a state must have a MoV of at least 10% to be considered strong. But we all have different defintions...I don't know if I remembered to welcome you to the forum, if not I will now. Smiley Welcome to the forum. Smiley
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