Arkansas - Tie - Rasmussen Reports

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Arkansas is the only southern state Kerry has a chance in (I don't count Florida as south). Most people forget that pretty much the entire state except the northwest and outer Little Rock suburbs is still reliably Democratic, even in presidential elections.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerry can win Arkansas. The example of it not going dem from '76-'92 is a poor one, since '80 and '88 were blowout years and '84 a 49 state landslide. and judging by what other states he carried, Clinton would've likely carried Arkansas even if he had come from another southern state. It's a swing state and a fairly good bellweather.

All Kerry needs to do is not make the mistake Gore did and get Clinton to campaign for him.

Now as for Virginia, Bush will win it, but it'll be a lot closer than people think. Bush had a very poor showing there in 2000 compared to the past, it was his third worst southern state after Arkansas and Tennesee (which greatly benefited from the favorite son factor). I don't see how anyone can't see the state changing, the northern part has much more in common with New Jersey than Alabama and the Virginia Beach/Newport News area is also developing and starting to turn into an area similar to Atlanta or New Orleans, not really southern and quite liberal despite the area. I know many people from Virginia, and none of them think of themselves as being southern, not even the ones from Richmond, the capital of the Confederacy! Virginia is becoming similar to Florida. I wouldn't be shocked if a poll came out showing it close and if Kerry decided to sink some cash into the state, and I am certain it will be contended in 2008.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

Orland and FT L is not ALL of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington are NOT ALL of VA. Good grief Orlando and Ft L may be 2% of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington may be 2% of VA.

only about 20% of Florida's population lives on the northern strip of counties. The rest is not the south. And while only about 30% of Virginia's population lives in the northern region, it's growth and other developments means the state will be a swing state some day.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I never said the whole states weren't southern, just that certain parts are. After all one Maryland and Delaware have southern parts to them, but that certainly doesn't make Baltimore or Wilmington southern cities, or the states on a whole. Virginia I would still classify as a southern state, even though a significant amount of the population lives in an area which is not. Florida I would not, I looked up all the counties you listed and they are rather rural and sparsely populated. The same way the counties of California that actually have people in them are rather liberal, Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and the Orlando area have the bulk of Florida's population outside of the panhandle, and they are not southern.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Polk only has about 500k people. There's over a million in Palm Beach and I'm sure there are plenty more larger counties. If Tampa and St. Petersburg are heavily Republican, why does Tampa keep electing Jim Davis and why did Gore win Pinellas county?