Arkansas - Tie - Rasmussen Reports

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What evidence do you have that Bush doing bad among "married women"? As I said before I don't much faith in polls this early on. Give it until about August before I believe any poll.

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What evidence do you have that Bush doing bad among "married women"? As I said before I don't much faith in polls this early on. Give it until about August before I believe any poll.

He is THE VORLON.  He knows.  Trust me.

Though he is very insightful and has a lot of information. I still do not put my faith is polls in May. Give it to August, we will start to get a real picture by then.

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As I believe I have posted before (??) , Bush is really starting to especially feel a hit among married women in his popularity.  This is a group he just has to hold Kerry to at least a tie on or he is in real difficulty.

I have swung Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin back over to Kerry based on this errosion among women.  

The Bush folks have picked up on this breakdown among married women and I expect you will see Bush launch a "jobs/kids/soft & fuzzy" offensive quite soon.

You'll notice the new Kerry ads have quotes from his daughter and wife.  Hmmmm...

That is NOT a co-incidence...  

If Kerry has any sense he will try to keep his wife out of this campaign as much as possible.

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Vorlon please answer my question as to where you get the information that "married women" are leaving support for Bush behind?

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Kerry can win Arkansas. The example of it not going dem from '76-'92 is a poor one, since '80 and '88 were blowout years and '84 a 49 state landslide. and judging by what other states he carried, Clinton would've likely carried Arkansas even if he had come from another southern state. It's a swing state and a fairly good bellweather.

All Kerry needs to do is not make the mistake Gore did and get Clinton to campaign for him.

Now as for Virginia, Bush will win it, but it'll be a lot closer than people think. Bush had a very poor showing there in 2000 compared to the past, it was his third worst southern state after Arkansas and Tennesee (which greatly benefited from the favorite son factor). I don't see how anyone can't see the state changing, the northern part has much more in common with New Jersey than Alabama and the Virginia Beach/Newport News area is also developing and starting to turn into an area similar to Atlanta or New Orleans, not really southern and quite liberal despite the area. I know many people from Virginia, and none of them think of themselves as being southern, not even the ones from Richmond, the capital of the Confederacy! Virginia is becoming similar to Florida. I wouldn't be shocked if a poll came out showing it close and if Kerry decided to sink some cash into the state, and I am certain it will be contended in 2008.

Well, whether you like the fact or not both Virginia and Florida ARE Southern states. I know you'd like to see the total dismantling of the south but the fact remains that VA and Florida are traditional Southern states.

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I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

Orland and FT L is not ALL of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington are NOT ALL of VA. Good grief Orlando and Ft L may be 2% of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington may be 2% of VA.

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I'm sorry but seeing 2 cities in Florida and calling it "non-Souther" is ridiculous. It would be like seeing LA and San Fransisco and calling California a very liberal state. Tampa, Jacksonville, Pensacola, and most all of the rural counties of Florida are very very Southern.

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I've been to Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale as well as Alexandria and Arlington, and that is NOT the south.

Orland and FT L is not ALL of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington are NOT ALL of VA. Good grief Orlando and Ft L may be 2% of Florida and Alexandria and Arlington may be 2% of VA.

only about 20% of Florida's population lives on the northern strip of counties. The rest is not the south. And while only about 30% of Virginia's population lives in the northern region, it's growth and other developments means the state will be a swing state some day.

So only the PanHandle is Southern? Ok call Dixie, Polk, Ockechobee, Collier, Hillsborough, etc etc non southern? Those counties are all along the I-4 corrider or next to the lake.  You've never been to Florida, Orlando and Ft Lauderdale don't count. lol
I bet you could go to South side VA or Tidewater or the Mountains and call them "non-Southern"? lol

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Northern VA is the Republican side of DC and Maryland is the Democrat side of DC. Look at the counties in both states surrounding DC and you will see what I mean.

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 Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and the Orlando area have the bulk of Florida's population outside of the panhandle, and they are not southern.

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Those are only 4!! counties outside the Panhandle. What about Hillsborough, Polk, Pinellas, Hernando? All of Central Florida is not sparsely populated! I would hardly call any of those counties I just mentioned sparse. Lakeland is one of the biggest cities in the region and Polk is THE largest county in Florida. Tampa is very Republican as is St. Petersburg and Sarasota. Miami is just one city and Orlando is a world of its own, but Orlando and Miami do not a Florida make.

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Polk only has about 500k people. There's over a million in Palm Beach and I'm sure there are plenty more larger counties. If Tampa and St. Petersburg are heavily Republican, why does Tampa keep electing Jim Davis and why did Gore win Pinellas county?

Tampas Mayor Pam Iorio is a Republican, Pinellas' mayor Rick Baker is a Republican and the only reason that Pinellas went Demo is because of the black population. I do not determine D/R when I talk about being southern. Southerners can be either Democrat/Republican or Black/White. Here is a map of counties

Why Florida IS Southern

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Thanks Pieman. As the map clearly shows the majority of Florida is Southern.

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Miami-Dade does not a Florida make. I'm sure that if you went to 80% of Floridians and called them Yankees you probably wouldn't leave our fine state in the same shape you came in. Southern tradition and culture runs deep in our fair state whether Northerners like that fact or not. Just because a person is a Democrat does not mean they are not southerners. If you want to make it out that southerners are all racists and thus all republicans why don't yall just come out and say it already?