Arkansas - Tie - Rasmussen Reports

[pieman]

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

[pieman]

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

They can't remain strong GOP, since they weren't in 2000...

Point to Gustaf.

The newbie twists in the wind as Gustaf cuts him down to size and Vorlon tallies the score.

For the record, Virginia was +8% and Arkansas was +5% in 2000, and there is no reason to believe they will be any stronger or weaker relative to the national average result in 2004.

Strong is such a relative term . . .
What ever the term, these states will trend GOP just as much in 2004 as in 2000.

Perhaps the word strong was too strong?

[pieman]

hmm.  excluding favorite son bill clinton, arkansas last voted democratic in 1976.

the virginia trending democratic argument is vastly overstated.

I agree. Arkansas and Virginia remain strong GOP.

Seems to me that Rasmussen's polling is all over the place. Thats what you get from small, one day samples. I think he likes it that way because it gets his polling noticed. Particularly this early in the race when there is no way to confirm if he is right or wrong. If I recall correctly the same thing occurred in 2000.

They can't remain strong GOP, since they weren't in 2000...

Point to Gustaf.

The newbie twists in the wind as Gustaf cuts him down to size and Vorlon tallies the score.

For the record, Virginia was +8% and Arkansas was +5% in 2000, and there is no reason to believe they will be any stronger or weaker relative to the national average result in 2004.

Strong is such a relative term . . .
What ever the term, these states will trend GOP just as much in 2004 as in 2000.

Perhaps the word strong was too strong?

Watch out for Gustaf.. he's a killer..

Hey! I'm a nice guy...

I think that any state that is 8% or lower is not strong...a swing of 4% would win it for Kerry, that's not much. A margin of say 52-48 would be enough to put Arkansas in play, for instance. And there are signs of VA trending Dem.

Personally I think that a state must have a MoV of at least 10% to be considered strong. But we all have different defintions...I don't know if I remembered to welcome you to the forum, if not I will now. Welcome to the forum.

Thanks for the welcome, Gustaf.

[pieman]

If you are interested in another view of what the SOUTH is take a look at this article.

Ten Regions of the US