Day 38: Pennsylvania
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Day 38: Pennsylvania
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Author Topic: Day 38: Pennsylvania  (Read 8440 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #25 on: October 01, 2005, 11:06:50 AM »

Also, explain to me how Northampton will "stay" in the Dem column when it went for for Bush with 60% of the vote.

Northampton   Kerry   50.1%   63,446   
 
Bush   49.0%   62,102   
 
Other   0.9%   1,192   


Oopsies on you. I guess you don't know the Lehigh Valley like you thought you did.
 

I misread Northampton for Northcumberland. "Don't have a heart attack" Dan.

Also, following the trends, Northampton would not stay in the Dem column. Oopsies on you.
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danwxman
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« Reply #26 on: October 01, 2005, 11:08:12 AM »

Since Phil is being an uptight little prick, here's some clarifications:

Dark Blue = Strong Republican
Light Blue = Lean Republican
Light Red = Lean Democrat
Dark Red = Strong Democrat

Gee, I'm sure everybody looking at the map thought that was soooo hard to figure out.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #27 on: October 01, 2005, 11:09:32 AM »

Since Phil is being an uptight little prick, here's some clarifications:

Dark Blue = Strong Republican
Light Blue = Lean Republican
Light Red = Lean Democrat
Dark Red = Strong Democrat

Gee, I'm sure everybody looking at the map thought that was soooo hard to figure out.


How am I being uptight? Anyone would look and think "Well Dan is always an idiot but Delaware county 80% Dem?"
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phk
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« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2005, 11:14:20 AM »

What a dumbass thread.
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Cashcow
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« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2005, 11:27:46 AM »

Let's cool it boys before Uncle Cashcow has to neuter you.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2005, 11:35:22 AM »


Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

In 20 years, the only SW PA county that might be Dem besides Allegheny will be Fayette, maybe.
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danwxman
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« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2005, 11:44:31 AM »


Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

In 20 years, the only SW PA county that might be Dem besides Allegheny will be Fayette, maybe.

Either Fayette or Beaver may still be Dem, or possibly neither. You could be right.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2005, 01:29:40 PM »

Roll Eyes

Why must every discussion of PA electoral geography turn into this bizarre row about "trends"?
If a week is a long time in politics, 15-20 years is eons. You cannot take a swing from one election and magnify it on a grand scale and expect it to be even slightly accurate.

As an example, in 1984, Mondale won Armstrong county and lost Lackawanna county.
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #33 on: October 01, 2005, 05:13:45 PM »

Not to be rude or anything, but Lackawanna County will most likely not turn into a lean Republican area anytime in the future unless Scranton is somehow removed from the equation.
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memphis
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« Reply #34 on: October 01, 2005, 08:52:47 PM »

Roll Eyes

Why must every discussion of PA electoral geography turn into this bizarre row about "trends"?
If a week is a long time in politics, 15-20 years is eons. You cannot take a swing from one election and magnify it on a grand scale and expect it to be even slightly accurate.

As an example, in 1984, Mondale won Armstrong county and lost Lackawanna county.

We talking about trends because the category that this thread is in is "presidential election trends."
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #35 on: October 01, 2005, 09:02:02 PM »

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory
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TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
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« Reply #36 on: October 01, 2005, 10:17:20 PM »

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory

I actually agree with your map.
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Max Power
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« Reply #37 on: October 01, 2005, 10:31:23 PM »

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory
I think that's about right, but I believe Pike County will become more Democratic as more people move there from NYC. But, I highly doubt that will effect it in 11 years. Good map, though.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #38 on: October 01, 2005, 11:56:04 PM »

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory


Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.
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Smash255
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« Reply #39 on: October 02, 2005, 12:45:48 AM »

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory


Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

In a 50/50 election you don't think a county that went to Kerry by 15%, has a 90% chance of going Dem?Huh?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #40 on: October 02, 2005, 12:47:31 AM »

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory


Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

In a 50/50 election you don't think a county that went to Kerry by 15%, has a 90% chance of going Dem?Huh?

I didn't see that it was a 90% chance of victory. Even then, I think it's still a bit too high.
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Smash255
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« Reply #41 on: October 02, 2005, 01:08:06 AM »

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory


Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

In a 50/50 election you don't think a county that went to Kerry by 15%, has a 90% chance of going Dem?Huh?

I didn't see that it was a 90% chance of victory. Even then, I think it's still a bit too high.

In a race where the GOP won nationally by 2.5% the county went to Kerry by 15%, to say its not pretty much certain Dem in a 50/50 election is a bit silly, especially since the county is no where near trending GOP
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TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
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« Reply #42 on: October 02, 2005, 12:30:26 PM »

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory


Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #43 on: October 02, 2005, 12:35:13 PM »

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.

But the big question is: Who do you guys have down there? Don't expect Weldon to leave anytime soon, Flyers. The guy has some major seniority. If he stays in longer than two more terms, the GOP really won't have to worry because of redistricting. If PA 7 really becomes a problem, they'll find a way to fix it.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #44 on: October 02, 2005, 12:47:11 PM »

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.

But the big question is: Who do you guys have down there? Don't expect Weldon to leave anytime soon, Flyers. The guy has some major seniority. If he stays in longer than two more terms, the GOP really won't have to worry because of redistricting. If PA 7 really becomes a problem, they'll find a way to fix it.

Only if they have the governor's office.
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TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
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« Reply #45 on: October 02, 2005, 03:14:54 PM »

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.

But the big question is: Who do you guys have down there? Don't expect Weldon to leave anytime soon, Flyers. The guy has some major seniority. If he stays in longer than two more terms, the GOP really won't have to worry because of redistricting. If PA 7 really becomes a problem, they'll find a way to fix it.

If the Democrats were serious, they would go with State Rep. Greg Vitali.  Oh and it's good of you to admit you have to win with gerrymandering, but BRTD is right- you need the governorship!  Weldon isn't no spring chicken either and I think he'll leave by 2010 or 2012 and possibly run for Senate. 
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #46 on: October 02, 2005, 03:22:24 PM »

Weldon's 58 years old. I doubt he'll retire before 2016 at the earliest, especially since he's the second senior member of the Armed Services Committee and chairman of the subcommittee dealing with acquisition of all land and air weapon systems.
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TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
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« Reply #47 on: October 02, 2005, 03:37:07 PM »

Weldon's 58 years old. I doubt he'll retire before 2016 at the earliest, especially since he's the second senior member of the Armed Services Committee and chairman of the subcommittee dealing with acquisition of all land and air weapon systems.

You also have to consider the fact he will likely have a tough challenge by 2016.  Weldon has seniority, but he's not invincible (see Phil Crane R-IL).  The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #48 on: October 02, 2005, 03:41:20 PM »

I'm not saying he is invincible, only that he will be the heavy favorite until he wants to leave. Winning with 60%+ in a district that gives the Democrats almost 60% is pretty decent IMO. Vitali would certainly not be stupid enough to run against Weldon, knowing that his chance of victory is low.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #49 on: October 02, 2005, 04:00:46 PM »

Interestingly Weldon's district was held by a Democrat in the late '70's/early '80's.
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