Day 38: Pennsylvania

[TeePee4Prez]

simply speaking, republicans are losing in the pa because they cant win the philly burbs any longer.

doing better in philly suburbia combined with a continuing republican trend in western pa, would give the gop a strong chance at picking off this 'blue' state/

Are the Philly suburbs located Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery counties?

Add Chester which dramatically shifted towards Kerry from Gore, but still went Bush.  Reason being still a lot of farmland and exurbs.  Also fairly socially liberal in the more suburban parts, but its burbs are very wealthy and greatly benefit from GOP tax cuts.

Mitty, of the people around our age in Montco and Bucks I know, they are VERY liberal.  The GOP will be tumbleweed by 2020 in those counties.  Once the more conservative boomers start moving south, liberal voters will take their place.   

I think Smash255 and danwxman hit the nail on the coffin pretty well here.

I will only say this as information-  Please visit the PA 6/8 and PA 13 threads in Congressional Elections for further details.  Thank you.

[TeePee4Prez]

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory

I actually agree with your map.

[TeePee4Prez]

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory

Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.

[TeePee4Prez]

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.

But the big question is: Who do you guys have down there? Don't expect Weldon to leave anytime soon, Flyers. The guy has some major seniority. If he stays in longer than two more terms, the GOP really won't have to worry because of redistricting. If PA 7 really becomes a problem, they'll find a way to fix it.

If the Democrats were serious, they would go with State Rep. Greg Vitali.  Oh and it's good of you to admit you have to win with gerrymandering, but BRTD is right- you need the governorship!  Weldon isn't no spring chicken either and I think he'll leave by 2010 or 2012 and possibly run for Senate. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Weldon's 58 years old. I doubt he'll retire before 2016 at the earliest, especially since he's the second senior member of the Armed Services Committee and chairman of the subcommittee dealing with acquisition of all land and air weapon systems.

You also have to consider the fact he will likely have a tough challenge by 2016.  Weldon has seniority, but he's not invincible (see Phil Crane R-IL).  The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

[TeePee4Prez]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

I realize PA 7 is not MA 7, but it has a lot of similarities with NY 3 and Pete King.  Problem is the Democrats are just beginning to organize in Delco and still have to catch up with Montgomery County, PA and Nassau, NY.  Also, Weldon has slightly more seniority than King which does not help us.  All I'm saying is Weldon is safe for now, but it is plausible to think that in a Dem landslide and a good candidate he is definitely vulnerable.  Remember, this area voted for the liberal Bob Edgar in the late 1970s and early 1980s when even NE Philly had a conservative Republican in Charlie Dougherty.  

[TeePee4Prez]

Results for Weldon since 1992

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 196,556 
 Paul Scoles, Democrat 134,932 
 David Jahn, Libertarian 3,039 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 146,296 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 75,055 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 172,569 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 93,687 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 119,491 
 Martin J. D’Urso, Democrat 46,920

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 165,087 
 John F. Innelli, Democrat 79,875 
 John Pronchik, Natural Law 1,688 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 137,480 
 Sara Nichols, Democrat 59,845

7. Frank Daly, Democrat 91,623 
 Curt Weldon, Republican 180,648 
 William Alan Hickman, Natural Law 1,627 

Obviously, a mark of somebody about to lose re-election

Did you read my post genius?  You know the part that says "given a strong candidate?"  Paul Scoles is gay and has AIDS (not kidding) and still had a decent showing against Weldon.  Vitali would cut that margin significantly and is an elected State Rep in Delaware County.  Not saying he'd win, but in a Presidential year and either a scandal or GOP collapse, it is very possible he could beat Weldon.

[TeePee4Prez]

Okay, how will Viteli cut the margin from 59-40 to 50-50? How will he magicly maintain the absurd turnout levels in SE PA?

Even with the Weldon results the Dems have improved dramatically in that area plus they never ran serious candidates.  If an non-serious, underfunded Dem is getting 40% or above, flags suggesting a pickup definitely fly.

[TeePee4Prez]

Okay, how will Viteli cut the margin from 59-40 to 50-50? How will he magicly maintain the absurd turnout levels in SE PA?

Even with the Weldon results the Dems have improved dramatically in that area plus they never ran serious candidates.  If an non-serious, underfunded Dem is getting 40% or above, flags suggesting a pickup definitely fly.

And why do you think he got to 40%, Flyers? Is it really local improvement or was it the incredible turnout due to the Presidential race? Before last year, Weldon was always around 65%. Get real, Flyers.

I know the Pres races add to the totals, but they Dems have steadily done better even at the local level and are flying at the Presidential.