Day 38: Pennsylvania

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PA leans Dem.  Western portion of the state is fairly populist & has move toward the GOP.  SEPA is what turns the state from a lean GOP or pure toss up to llean Dem.  The Philadelphia burbs are part of the mid atlantic & northeast suburban Democratic shift (aslo seen in the NYC &  D.C burbs).  Use to be stanchly Republican and now are Democratic (on the Pres level), big reason is social issues.  Wester portions of the state have shifted GOP for social reasons as well,  but the shift in SE PA has had a larger impact.  Centra; part of the state has tradionally been GOP and has stayed that way

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My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory

Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

In a 50/50 election you don't think a county that went to Kerry by 15%, has a 90% chance of going Dem??

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My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory

Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

In a 50/50 election you don't think a county that went to Kerry by 15%, has a 90% chance of going Dem??

I didn't see that it was a 90% chance of victory. Even then, I think it's still a bit too high.

In a race where the GOP won nationally by 2.5% the county went to Kerry by 15%, to say its not pretty much certain Dem in a 50/50 election is a bit silly, especially since the county is no where near trending GOP

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The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

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The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

Yes you mentioned you misread the calculations, but even after that  you went on to say that the 90% chance # was still to high, which is just silly.

I agree that weldon against Vitali, weldon shouldn't have much of a problem.  Point I was making was about your insane comment that in a 50/50 election saying Delaware  county has a 90% chance mis a bit too high.

Also as far as how much Delaware has trended to the Dems..

In 1988 Delaware County was 13.3% more GOP than the national average
In 1992 Delaware County was 4.6% more GOP than the national avearge
In 1996 Delaware county was 1.5% more dem than the national average
in 2000 Delaware County was 11.2% more Dem than the national average
in 2004 Delawrae County was 17.5% more Dem than the national average

Phil, and you don't think thats a pretty strong Dem shift??

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The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

Yes you mentioned you misread the calculations, but even after that  you went on to say that the 90% chance # was still to high, which is just silly.

Uh...ok.

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Not on the local/Congressional level and that's what we're talking about with Weldon, genius.

However, a general shift is not unlikely on the local level, and it is possible a strong candidate could possibly pose problems for Weldon.  I think Flyers hit it on the head when he made the comparison to Peter King NY-03 (my congressman).  King & Weldon are safe, but could possibly face a tough race if they face a tough race.  I would say King would clearly be more vulnerable than Weldon.  Due to a more organized shift here & so far & a VERY STRONG possible opponent in Nassau county Executive Tom Suozzi (who would wipe the floor with King).  Now chances are even a strong Weldon opponent won't be nearly as a challenege to Weldon as Suozzi would to King, but point is their are similarities in the way Delco is compared to Long Island.  how its trended Dem, etc while Nassau & Montco Dems are more organized than Delco dems their is the possibilty that Delco dems could become a bit more organized & stronger on the local level (similar to how Monctco & Nassau are now).  Bottom line Weldon is pretty much safe, but it isn't out of the question that Delco dems could become more organized (similar to how Nassau Dems & Montco Dems are) and as a result a strong candidate could emerge that could give Weldon a challenge.

 Now  again it is very unlikely that weldon could face a challenge as hard as King would if Suozzi ran for his seat, but it isn't out of the question that he could potentially face a tough race down the road if delco follows the lead other similar suburban areas have had (Montco & Nassau) & for the Dems become stronger on the local level as well

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Results for Weldon since 1992

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 196,556 
 Paul Scoles, Democrat 134,932 
 David Jahn, Libertarian 3,039 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 146,296 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 75,055 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 172,569 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 93,687 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 119,491 
 Martin J. D’Urso, Democrat 46,920

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 165,087 
 John F. Innelli, Democrat 79,875 
 John Pronchik, Natural Law 1,688 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 137,480 
 Sara Nichols, Democrat 59,845

7. Frank Daly, Democrat 91,623 
 Curt Weldon, Republican 180,648 
 William Alan Hickman, Natural Law 1,627 

Obviously, a mark of somebody about to lose re-election

I think we have already established its unlikely.  Point I think myslf & Flyers were trying to make is it  is possible (due to its hard left shift on the national level) for the Delco Dems to get more organized much the way MontCo Dems are & Nassau County Dems are, aand for a strong Dem to emerge.  still unlikely that Weldon would lose, but he could wind up facing a tough race down the line if the above mentioned happens.

Weldon has won in landslides, but that doesn't mean a more organized Delco Dems with a strong opponent couldn't make it a tough race, not saying he will lose, but a strong opponent & the seat is not safe anymore and while he would still probably win he would have a tough race.   My congressman Peter King has won by landslides, but Suozzi runs, not only does King have a tough race, he loses period.