Day 38: Pennsylvania

[danwxman]

In terms of political cultures, this is probably the most diverse state in the country.

One of the things that people may not know is that York county is traditionally blue collar and populist leaning. If you've ever been to York or visited any of the towns in the county, you would be 100% certain this county is a Democratic stronghold. It's very blue-collar and the economy is based around manufacturing and industry. The county was one of the strongest for Johnson in central PA, but hasn't gone Democratic since. Democrats actually had a registration advantage up until the 80's. Interestingly, York really moved towards the Republicans when they started becoming more competitive in the South. And if you've ever been to the backwoods of York county you can easily see the comparisons. Those small manufacturing towns in York county are extremely white, very religious and quite racist in fact. The people even have their own distinct accent, which sounds somewhat southern.

The county is beginning to see a transformation, but one which will not bring it more Democratic...possibly even more Republican (as can be seen from the Bush trend from 2000-2004). Harrisburg and Baltimore exurbs are exploding in the northern and southern parts of the county.

[danwxman]

Centre County. home of Penn State went for Bush. This really surprises me because college towns are usually liberal. Why did this happen?

Centre County is more than just that Uni and usually votes Republican; there was a fairly large swing towards Kerry last year.

The college vote really came out in droves. But actually, there are a few other populist Democratic towns in the county. That is balanced out by the staunchly Republican rural townships and State College suburbs.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

Putting Delaware county as dark as Philly is just plain stupid but I need to realize who made the map.

I love how you can say liberalism in on the rise in the SE and you're serious but my lines aren't taken seriously. You obviously don't know the area.

I don't think Centre county will grow that much.

Wanna know why Philly isn't darker? Because I didn't have a darker red in paint, you jackass. Obviously Delaware county isn't going to be 80% for Democrats.

And if you read my post, I said "I know" conservatism is on the rise in that area, I just don't think it will get too much more conservative before the New York and Philly suburban effects take hold.

You may be right on Centre county. It's a prediction map, Phil, don't have a heart attack.

[danwxman]

Also, explain to me how Northampton will "stay" in the Dem column when it went for for Bush with 60% of the vote.

Northampton   Kerry   50.1%   63,446   
 
Bush   49.0%   62,102   
 
Other   0.9%   1,192   


Oopsies on you. I guess you don't know the Lehigh Valley like you thought you did.
 

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

Putting Delaware county as dark as Philly is just plain stupid but I need to realize who made the map.

I love how you can say liberalism in on the rise in the SE and you're serious but my lines aren't taken seriously. You obviously don't know the area.

I don't think Centre county will grow that much.

Wanna know why Philly isn't darker? Becuase I didn't have a darker red in paint, you jackass. Obviously Delaware county isn't going to be 80% for Democrats.

And if you read my post, I said "I know" conservatism is on the rise in that area, I just don't think it will get too much more conservative before the New York and Philly suburban effects take hold.

You may be right on Centre county. It's a prediction map, Phil, don't have a heart attack.

Clarify that Delaware won't be 80% Dem next time, genius.

Believe me, I'm not having a heart attack over your map. I just point out what I think is wrong.

It's not meant to be an exact map. Jesus Christ Almighty, it's just something I whipped up in paint while eating a sandwich.

[danwxman]

Since Phil is being an uptight little prick, here's some clarifications:

Dark Blue = Strong Republican
Light Blue = Lean Republican
Light Red = Lean Democrat
Dark Red = Strong Democrat

Gee, I'm sure everybody looking at the map thought that was soooo hard to figure out.

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

In 20 years, the only SW PA county that might be Dem besides Allegheny will be Fayette, maybe.

Either Fayette or Beaver may still be Dem, or possibly neither. You could be right.