Day 38: Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

Since we're talking strictly Presidential level, we are still a tossup/lean Dem state. The west is moving right as the southeast is moving left. 2008 will prove a lot. As was proven before, the SE does not control whatever happens in PA. If the west turns out, the west can win. We'll have to see if that happens in a few years.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

Putting Delaware county as dark as Philly is just plain stupid but I need to realize who made the map.

I love how you can say liberalism in on the rise in the SE and you're serious but my lines aren't taken seriously. You obviously don't know the area.

I don't think Centre county will grow that much.

[Keystone Phil]

Also, explain to me how Northampton will "stay" in the Dem column when it went for for Bush with 60% of the vote.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania in 20 years?

Delaware county more Dem than Montco? No. Northampton couny Dem? No. I don't see Centre county becoming Dem either.

Phil...like any silly prediction map nothing is set in stone and everything depends on the candidate. But here we go...

Montco isn't going to grow much more then it already is, from all the restrictions they are putting on growth. Maybe Montco should be dark like Delaware county, which will continue to see a lot of spillover from Philadelphia.

And I think Northampton and Lehigh will stay just barely in the Democratic column. I know "CONSERVATISM IS ON THE RISE!!!11!!" like you say, and they could go Republican with a moderate...but the Philly and New York suburban effect will eventually take over, and probably already is beginning to.

Centre county's college population will continue to grow and combined with some of the boroughs that are Democratic strongholds, they may just outvote the Republican areas. Hell, they almost did in 2004.

Putting Delaware county as dark as Philly is just plain stupid but I need to realize who made the map.

I love how you can say liberalism in on the rise in the SE and you're serious but my lines aren't taken seriously. You obviously don't know the area.

I don't think Centre county will grow that much.

Wanna know why Philly isn't darker? Becuase I didn't have a darker red in paint, you jackass. Obviously Delaware county isn't going to be 80% for Democrats.

And if you read my post, I said "I know" conservatism is on the rise in that area, I just don't think it will get too much more conservative before the New York and Philly suburban effects take hold.

You may be right on Centre county. It's a prediction map, Phil, don't have a heart attack.

Clarify that Delaware won't be 80% Dem next time, genius.

Believe me, I'm not having a heart attack over your map. I just point out what I think is wrong.

[Keystone Phil]

Also, explain to me how Northampton will "stay" in the Dem column when it went for for Bush with 60% of the vote.

Northampton   Kerry   50.1%   63,446   
 
Bush   49.0%   62,102   
 
Other   0.9%   1,192   


Oopsies on you. I guess you don't know the Lehigh Valley like you thought you did.
 

I misread Northampton for Northcumberland. "Don't have a heart attack" Dan.

Also, following the trends, Northampton would not stay in the Dem column. Oopsies on you.

[Keystone Phil]

Since Phil is being an uptight little prick, here's some clarifications:

Dark Blue = Strong Republican
Light Blue = Lean Republican
Light Red = Lean Democrat
Dark Red = Strong Democrat

Gee, I'm sure everybody looking at the map thought that was soooo hard to figure out.

How am I being uptight? Anyone would look and think "Well Dan is always an idiot but Delaware county 80% Dem?"

[Keystone Phil]

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory

Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

[Keystone Phil]

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory

Delaware can't be that dark and Lehigh/Northampton will be either tossup or lean GOP by 2016.

In a 50/50 election you don't think a county that went to Kerry by 15%, has a 90% chance of going Dem??

I didn't see that it was a 90% chance of victory. Even then, I think it's still a bit too high.

[Keystone Phil]

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.

But the big question is: Who do you guys have down there? Don't expect Weldon to leave anytime soon, Flyers. The guy has some major seniority. If he stays in longer than two more terms, the GOP really won't have to worry because of redistricting. If PA 7 really becomes a problem, they'll find a way to fix it.

[Keystone Phil]

Delaware County Dems are doing VERY well as of late.  Curt Weldon's seat when retired will highly likely have a Democrat.  Even your boy Rick Santorum was shocked at well Delaware Co. is doing.

But the big question is: Who do you guys have down there? Don't expect Weldon to leave anytime soon, Flyers. The guy has some major seniority. If he stays in longer than two more terms, the GOP really won't have to worry because of redistricting. If PA 7 really becomes a problem, they'll find a way to fix it.

If the Democrats were serious, they would go with State Rep. Greg Vitali.  Oh and it's good of you to admit you have to win with gerrymandering, but BRTD is right- you need the governorship!  Weldon isn't no spring chicken either and I think he'll leave by 2010 or 2012 and possibly run for Senate. 

Uh...no. I never said we need gerrymandering to win. I said if we ever found ourselves in serious trouble.

Weldon isn't running for Senate either. You just don't get the seniority he has in the House.

[Keystone Phil]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

[Keystone Phil]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

[Keystone Phil]

The district is moving left quite rapidly and Weldon didn't exactly have mighty impressive numbers against a weak no-name candidate.  Greg Vitali would surely give him problems if he were to run.

You live in a Democratic fantasy land. You really do.

It is unlikely for Weldon to lose no question, but I would say that not thinking a county that continues to trend Dem that went to Kerry by 15% isn't certain Dem in a 50/50 election is more of a fantasy land than thinking Weldon could face a tough race down the road.  Weldon most likely is safe, but their is absolutley no question whatsoever that Delaware county is safe Dem in a tight Presidential race

I told you I misread the chances of victory. Yes, Delco is Dem in a 50/50 election. Saying that Weldon would face trouble against Vitali is foolish. Delco is not trending that much Dem.

Yes you mentioned you misread the calculations, but even after that  you went on to say that the 90% chance # was still to high, which is just silly.

Uh...ok.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not on the local/Congressional level and that's what we're talking about with Weldon, genius.

[Keystone Phil]

 All I'm saying is Weldon is safe for now, but it is plausible to think that in a Dem landslide and a good candidate he is definitely vulnerable.  

Here's what you would need:

1) It would need to be in a Presidential election year where the national GOP is falling apart. That's not happening in '08.

2) A strong Dem candidate (not just good).

3) Some scandal for Weldon.

[Keystone Phil]

Okay, how will Viteli cut the margin from 59-40 to 50-50? How will he magicly maintain the absurd turnout levels in SE PA?

Even with the Weldon results the Dems have improved dramatically in that area plus they never ran serious candidates.  If an non-serious, underfunded Dem is getting 40% or above, flags suggesting a pickup definitely fly.

And why do you think he got to 40%, Flyers? Is it really local improvement or was it the incredible turnout due to the Presidential race? Before last year, Weldon was always around 65%. Get real, Flyers.

[Keystone Phil]

I know the Pres races add to the totals, but they Dems have steadily done better even at the local level and are flying at the Presidential.

In which races have they really improved on the local level?