Day 38: Pennsylvania

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Centre County. home of Penn State went for Bush. This really surprises me because college towns are usually liberal. Why did this happen?

Centre County is more than just that Uni and usually votes Republican; there was a fairly large swing towards Kerry last year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched; 2020 is a long way off and a lot can change in 15 years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why must every discussion of PA electoral geography turn into this bizarre row about "trends"?
If a week is a long time in politics, 15-20 years is eons. You cannot take a swing from one election and magnify it on a grand scale and expect it to be even slightly accurate.

As an example, in 1984, Mondale won Armstrong county and lost Lackawanna county.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interestingly Weldon's district was held by a Democrat in the late '70's/early '80's.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"All politics is local" I believe is Al's favorite quote.

Indeed it is

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True. Like I said earlier, before Weldon first won in the early '80's the district was held by a Democrat (who IIRC first won in '74; the Watergate-Backlash midterms).
PA voters seem to ticket split more than anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon line, btw. Compare all the statewide races in 2004...