Day 38: Pennsylvania

[Jake]

Something to add in the Northeast. Luzerne County, the biggest in NEPA, went only 51-48 to Kerry down from 52-44-3 in 2000. Carbon County shifted from 50-46-3 Gore in 2000 to 50-49 Bush. Lackawanna even shifted from 60-36-2 Gore in 2000 to 56-42 Gore in 2004. Columbia County shifted from 55-41-3 Bush in 2000 to 60-40 Bush in 2004. Democrats simply cannot afford to start losing these counties to the Republicans.

[Jake]

Not to be rude or anything, but Lackawanna County will most likely not turn into a lean Republican area anytime in the future unless Scranton is somehow removed from the equation.

[Jake]

My opinions on an evenly matched race in 2016.



Dark - >90% chance of victory
Light - >67% chance of victory
Gray - 50% chance of victory

[Jake]

Weldon's 58 years old. I doubt he'll retire before 2016 at the earliest, especially since he's the second senior member of the Armed Services Committee and chairman of the subcommittee dealing with acquisition of all land and air weapon systems.

[Jake]

I'm not saying he is invincible, only that he will be the heavy favorite until he wants to leave. Winning with 60%+ in a district that gives the Democrats almost 60% is pretty decent IMO. Vitali would certainly not be stupid enough to run against Weldon, knowing that his chance of victory is low.

[Jake]

"All politics is local" I believe is Al's favorite quote. That applies to Weldon's seat most certainly. Weldon is more or less safe, at least as safe as most Congressmen are.

[Jake]

That's very true. I know quite a few Kerry/Specter people and handful of Bush/Hoeffel voters. It becomes even more apparent when you look at state officer results (ie Casey in 2004).

[Jake]

Results for Weldon since 1992

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 196,556 
 Paul Scoles, Democrat 134,932 
 David Jahn, Libertarian 3,039 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 146,296 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 75,055 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 172,569 
 Peter A. Lennon, Democrat 93,687 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 119,491 
 Martin J. D’Urso, Democrat 46,920

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 165,087 
 John F. Innelli, Democrat 79,875 
 John Pronchik, Natural Law 1,688 

7. Curt Weldon, Republican 137,480 
 Sara Nichols, Democrat 59,845

7. Frank Daly, Democrat 91,623 
 Curt Weldon, Republican 180,648 
 William Alan Hickman, Natural Law 1,627 

Obviously, a mark of somebody about to lose re-election

[Jake]

Okay, how will Viteli cut the margin from 59-40 to 50-50? How will he magicly maintain the absurd turnout levels in SE PA?