Yet another Tory leadership contest!

[Democratic Hawk]

On a lighter note; former soap star, model and all round gay icon Adam Rickett has allegedly made the Conservative shortlist for MP selection

I find that...very appealing to the senses!

Enough said on my part!

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Incidentally, I'd never voted in this poll "Who would you like to see win?", so I've just this minute voted for Dr Fox, which is one more than the none he had before

Dave

[Peter]

On a lighter note; former soap star, model and all round gay icon Adam Rickett has allegedly made the Conservative shortlist for MP selection

I find that...very appealing to the senses!

Well, he can't sing or act, so I do hope that he has some brains. Where would he be looking to stand, because he could certainly revitalise the Tory vote in certain urban centres in the North West where they've been effectively absent since 97 and even before that in some cases.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, he can't sing or act, so I do hope that he has some brains. Where would he be looking to stand, because he could certainly revitalise the Tory vote in certain urban centres in the North West where they've been effectively absent since 97 and even before that in some cases.

Depends what you mean by urban; no genuinely urban seat in the North West is exactly predisposed to voting for a gay icon, let alone a Tory... (the collapse of the Tory vote in North Manchester or or East Liverpool has more to do with the end of the anti-Irish vote than anything else. Amazing to think that Manchester Blackley used to be a bellwether marginal isn't it?) but some of the south Manchester suburban seats (Manchester Withington (inner suburban in that case), Cheadle, Altrincham & Sale West (which already has a Tory M.P) and so on) would be much more interested. Although the only thing a strong (or just not pathetically weak) Tory candidate in Withington would do would be to cost the LibDems the seat (although the provisional boundary changes also do that IIRC).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Result should have been out about three minutes ago. It's been delayed until 5:30. Now... why? A recount maybe?
Tory M.P's are heading to where the results will be announced now...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Word is that third place was tied...

Not long now

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clarke is OUT

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Word is that third place was tied...

Not long now

The rumour mill was wrong. Again.

DAVIS: 62
CAMERON: 56
FOX: 42
CLARKE: 38

[Peter]

Davis getting fewer votes than he had declared supporters spells the end of him I feel.

[afleitch]

A strong showing for Cameron. Will Davis's support crumble? I don't see Fox making the top two, but I easily see Cameron topping the vote on Thursday.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Davis getting fewer votes than he had declared supporters spells the end of him I feel.

Very probably; good chance of Cameron v Fox (good showings by both) runoff.
Could get very, very nasty...

Just spotted something "interesting"... Davis polled 4 votes less than his declared list. Clarke was 4 votes away from not going out.

[Democratic Hawk]

Davis 62; Cameron 56; Fox 42 and Clarke 38. It's a lot closer than I expected. All bar Davis, have picked up the votes, who it would seem has lost a few. I wonder to whom they went?

The Conservative Party is clearly dvided with 104 votes on the Right and 94 on the 'Left' - it doesn't get much closer. Is the party having an identity crisis? I wouldn't be surprised if Davis continues to lose support, with Fox probably the major beneficiary. Will Clarke's support shift en masse to Cameron?

So on to Round 2, a 'lefty', a righty and a wing nut

Dave

P.S. Nevermind, better luck next time, Ken !

[Peter]

I have to say that I am very dismayed at the Conservative Party - a few weeks ago I honestly felt like the leadership of the party was within Ken's grasp, and finally the party would be lead by somebody who would win elections the way that Harold Macmillan had.

The remaining options are now Davis, Cameron and Fox.

Along with many others I view Fox as something of a fascist lite. I suspect he would be somewhat equivilant to IDS Mark II, just Scottish.

I have never viewed David Cameron as a viable commodity for the leadership, and my reasons are remarkably similar to the reasons that Conservatives in the US oppose Harriet Miers. Simply put, he has never held government office, and only enterred Parliament in 2001 - he is remarkably inexperienced. Second, during his short tenure in the Shadow Cabinet he has not held a position in which he would need to formulate policy until incredibly recently (he was only appointed to the Education brief after the last election) - we actually have no idea what his policies would be like, although the papers seem to have it in their heads that he's going to be on the left of the party. I've seen no evidence that he is on the left, and being naturally at home on the left of the Tory party, I strongly question his credentials as a standard bearer for my politics.

Then there's David Davis. Of all the candidates remaining, its my opinion he is actually the most likely to lead the party to general election victory, even though I don't really agree with his politics. Men like David Willetts will likely temper his social conservatism, and he has shown down the past 4 years that he certainly has charisma, and could probably begin to woo back old working class Tory voters.

Finally, I warn against David Cameron by referring to an example of remarkably recent history: Tony Blair. Blair was elected as our Prime Minister with no previous experience of government - consequently he destroyed cabinet government in our nation, and as a result I believe we lost an important part of our democratic dialogue. Cameron has never held government office; I doubt he understands the benefits of cabinet government the way that Clarke does.

I'll conclude by saying that if Liam Fox wins, expect him to be deposed a la IDS, and then confidently into the leadership will march the Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke after being written off for good by all the papers when he finished last in the leadership contest. Sound familiar?

[Michael Z]

I wouldn't be surprised to see some tactical voting from Clarke's supporters, ie. switching over to Fox in order to force a Fox vs Cameron final... though it could backfire, of course, and the Tories then end up with Liam Fox as their leader, which would make them about as electable as the bubonic plague. In any case, the next few days and weeks are going to be interesting, even though I'm sad to see Ken bow out.

[Ben.]

I wouldn't be surprised to see some tactical voting from Clarke's supporters, ie. switching over to Fox in order to force a Fox vs Cameron final... though it could backfire, of course, and the Tories then end up with Liam Fox as their leader, which would make them about as electable as the bubonic plague. In any case, the next few days and weeks are going to be interesting, even though I'm sad to see Ken bow out.

I think most view Davis as more beatable than Fox, certianly Fox is the more articulate and personable candidate while Davis is wooden and wounded now... Cameron would probably dispatch Davis with relative ease in the membership ballot. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Any one gonna make any predictions for Thursday's ballot:

Cameron 86
Davis 54
Fox 56

A wild stab in the dark on my part . Rightwingers see Fox as the man to beat Cameron in the membership ballot and he scrapes through to the final showdown

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Here's a weird scenario.
Leftwingers view Fox as more beatable than Davis - and Cameron ends in third in a near three-way tie.

[afleitch]

I believe it would be a closer result between Cameron and Fox, but If Davis' collpase results in a lot of internal friction within the right wing of the party, it will hinder Fox too should he come through.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A rumour has gone round that Davis will concede to Cameron if Cameron wins by a mile and Davis is second.
Everyone is denying it, but it could do a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuge amount of damage to Davis. He may well be toast. Burnt toast.

No prizes for guessing which camp spread that one around, ey? *cough* Fox *cough*

Voting begins in about two hours. I assume that the results will be declared around the same time as last time. Predictions anyone?

[minionofmidas]

I'll go with my above scenario - just because I'll look way cool if I somehow end up being right.

[Peter]

Cameron - 110
Fox - 45
Davis - 43

[Democratic Hawk]

Any one gonna make any predictions for Thursday's ballot:

Cameron 86
Davis 54
Fox 56

A wild stab in the dark on my part . Rightwingers see Fox as the man to beat Cameron in the membership ballot and he scrapes through to the final showdown

Dave

It's come to my attention that I can't bloody count (unless 2 Tories do, indeed, abstain)

I'm amending my prediction to:

Cameron 87
Davis 54
Fox 57

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

According to The Daily Torygraph , most Conservative activists want a Cameron-Fox showdown in the final

A poll of members suggests that Cameron would get 59% of the vote, Fox 18% and Davis 15%

In Cameron (72%) - Davis (22%) match up, Fox supporters would break for Davis 58% to 35% for Cameron

In a Fox (48%) - Davis (39%) match-up, Cameron supporters would break 46% for Fox to 37% for Davis

In a Cameron (67%) - Fox (27%) match-up, Davis supporters would break 53% for Cameron and 39% for Fox

Furthermore, 45% think that the Conservatives should move towards the political Centre, with more moderate 'one nation policies' (60% of Cameronites; 20% of Davisites; 19% of Foxites); while, 48% think that the party should remain firmly on the Right of politics and put clear blue water between them and the Labour Party (33% of Cameronites; 76% of Davisites; 73% of Foxites)

There's a range of other data too

Comment

When I saw the headline figures I chuckled asking myself whether I'm supposed to believe that 59% of party members are 'modernisers', 18% 'Thatcherites' and 15% 'mainstream right wingers'. It doesn't seem plausible but then further down the data it is evident that the Conservative Party rank-and-file are, indeed, having somewhat of an identity crisis with them being more or less effectively divided as to whether to gravitate to the political Centre or remain a party of the political Right. The latter group are 3% ahead, which suggests that a significant number of rightwingers are supporting Cameron out of political pragmatism, rather than ideological conviction, perceiving him as the guy who can return the Conservative Party to power

Only time will tell

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Or maybe it won't, in which case we'll never know.

[afleitch]

My rule of thumb is: A Tory member is still a die-hard right winger if they can still remember Stanley Baldwin!...That's about 40% of the membership then