Yet another Tory leadership contest!

[afleitch]

I would like to see whomever is in second place to Cameron to stand aside if it is a sweeping 'mandate' from the parliamentary party. If Fox is second, I don't think he will however. It could be preferrable however, as a ballot of the membership would cost the party a significant amount of money.

[Јas]

Prediction:
Cameron 91 (+35, mostly from Clarke, but also a handful of Davis)
Davis 54 (-8, gains a couple from Clarke, but loses more to both Fox and Cameron)
Fox 53 (+11, mostly from Davis, a few from Clarke)

[Јas]

Result:
Cameron 90
Davis 57
Fox 51

[afleitch]

Bye bye Foxy. As I mentioned before he appears to be a family 'nemesis' of sorts, so i'm glad he's out. But...will Davis stay in the race or stand down?

[afleitch]

Clarke goes out. Supporters swing behind Cameron (with a significant going towards Fox)

Davis supporters fragment, about 15 switch 10 to Fox 5 to Cameron

Cameron comes first in leadership ballot, Davis second, Fox a very close third

Cameron beats Davis in membership ballot

Cameron becomes leader

Cameron becomes Prime Minister in 2010, forming a minority Conservative government.

Wins a majority in an election called two years later.

Man walks on Mars

Pat on back Close enough

[Јas]

Bye bye Foxy. As I mentioned before he appears to be a family 'nemesis' of sorts, so i'm glad he's out. But...will Davis stay in the race or stand down?

From listening to BBC Radio Five, my understanding is that in such a scenario (Davis dropping out) the third placed candidate (i.e. Fox) would be entitled to then re-enter the race, as it were, before the membership at large.

[Democratic Hawk]

Result:
Cameron 90
Davis 57
Fox 51

Cameron has less than 50% support from the parliamentary party, whether Davis concedes the run-off is his decision but they would be wise to allow Cameron to seek a true mandate from the membership; otherwise, he could become a lame duck 'moderniser' in thrall to the party's right wing

Dave

[Јas]

Cameron has less than 50% support from the parliamentary party, whether Davis concedes the run-off is his decision but they would be wise to allow Cameron to seek a true mandate from the membership; otherwise, he could become a lame duck 'moderniser' in thrall to the party's right wing

Dave

From just after listening to him speaking just after the result, it is clear Davis does intend to continue the contest.

[afleitch]

Apparently several declared Cameron supporters tactically voted for Davis in order to knock Fox out.

[Democratic Hawk]

Cameron has less than 50% support from the parliamentary party, whether Davis concedes the run-off is his decision but they would be wise to allow Cameron to seek a true mandate from the membership; otherwise, he could become a lame duck 'moderniser' in thrall to the party's right wing

Dave

From just after listening to him speaking just after the result, it is clear Davis does intend to continue the contest.

And nor should he. If he runs, and loses, it could be a sign that the Tory Party leopard is about to change its spots. For what it's worth though, I'm done with the Tories - the Blessed Margaret saw to that

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Apparently several declared Cameron supporters tactically voted for Davis in order to knock Fox out.

Highly likely, I'd say

Dave

[Peter]

Cameron has less than 50% support from the parliamentary party, whether Davis concedes the run-off is his decision but they would be wise to allow Cameron to seek a true mandate from the membership; otherwise, he could become a lame duck 'moderniser' in thrall to the party's right wing

Dave

From just after listening to him speaking just after the result, it is clear Davis does intend to continue the contest.

Well effectively suspending the party rules for the second leadership contest in succession would be a pretty damning indictment in my opinion - lets not bother with democracy, its too expensive!!

[minionofmidas]

Cameron has less than 50% support from the parliamentary party, whether Davis concedes the run-off is his decision but they would be wise to allow Cameron to seek a true mandate from the membership; otherwise, he could become a lame duck 'moderniser' in thrall to the party's right wing

Dave

From just after listening to him speaking just after the result, it is clear Davis does intend to continue the contest.

Well effectively suspending the party rules for the second leadership contest in succession would be a pretty damning indictment in my opinion - lets not bother with democracy, its too expensive!!

Fairly characteristic of at least parts of the Tory party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see you remember the rebirth of the Magic Circle last year

[Democratic Hawk]

The Sun has a poll:

Brown (Lab) 39% Cameron (Con) 36% Kennedy (LD) 18% Others 7%

Brown (Lab) 40% Davis (Con) 33% Kennedy (LD) 19% Others 8%

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Sun has a poll:

Brown (Lab) 39% Cameron (Con) 36% Kennedy (LD) 18% Others 7%

Brown (Lab) 40% Davis (Con) 33% Kennedy (LD) 19% Others 8%

Dave

Both Labour and the Tories gain in the first, which is interesting. Very interesting.

[afleitch]

Good to see the 'Lib Dumbs' below 20%. I did a little canvassing back in May for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrat team, bussed in from elsewhere as usual were the worst I've had to deal with. I least you could have a coffee and a chat with the Labour team!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good to see the 'Lib Dumbs' below 20%.

Right now polling numbers don't mean much (and I still think the pollsters need to adjust their methodology as far as social grade goes; they got very lucky last election as the overestimate of Labour's AB support and the underestimate of Labour's C2/D/E support more-or-less cancelled each other out. They won't be so lucky next time) but yes, I agree with you.

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At least you know where you are with us

[afleitch]

Funilly enough, I was doing my best to encourage Tory voters in East Dumbartonshire to vote Labour to keep the Lib Dems out in the last few days. Sadly it was not to be.

[afleitch]

AWWWW!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clearly Cameron has a lot of appeal for the crucial drunks vote

[afleitch]

Not as much as Ken Clarke would have had I feel!

[Ben.]

What was amazing IMO, was that after a few weeks of pretty tough coverage and with few people even knowing who he was other than a Tory, and perhaps what he looks like and the fact he’s “posh”… Cameron’s beating Brown amongst “swing voters” who’ve been polled by a clear margin, and remember Brown is very much a familiar “know quantity”, this is very good for Cameron – very good indeed.

The ICM poll for the Guardian had the numbers…

Cameron (Conservative) – 43%
Brown (Labour) – 38%
  
…on top of that the focus group work shown on News night showed that Cameron’s appeal looks set to grow still further. There is the risk that Cameron could slip up, that something from his past could damage him, but baring those possibilities voters seem to react to Cameron in a way very similar to how they reacted to a young Tony Blair and against Gordon Brown they much prefer Cameron’s affability to Brown’s more dour persona.

An interesting fact has also emerged, between Davis and Cameron, Davis who is now making a great play of his ability to appeal to urban and suburban Britain does far less well amongst those polled from the north and midlands… so despite some Labour hopes that Cameron’s background will play against him it looks like that won’t be the case.

It’s a long way out and I agree with Peter that a campaign in the country is essentially both out of principle and the fact that lengthening the debate across the party is helpful and it would further test Cameron… but its starting to look like Cameron just might be the man to build on the base that was built up under Howard and IDS (you may laugh but both did a lot of work in retooling the Party’s approach and emphasis on issues) and take the Tories back to power.

One of the most interesting parallels I’ve heard between a potential Cameron vs Brown fight is that it could be very like Kennedy vs Nixon, Brown; experienced but impersonal, Cameron inexperienced but likeable… on such things are elections largely decided, and it can only help that Cameron looks keen to ditch some of the Tories less sensible polices and embrace a king of Blairite consensus which the majority of the UK today seems to accept.

So to conclude, the kid might just have what it takes          


          

[Ben.]

Brown (Lab) 39% Cameron (Con) 36% Kennedy (LD) 18% Others 7%

If that Mori Poll was as acurate as its general election eve of poll, poll then it'd be somthing like...

Brown (Lab) 36% Cameron (Con) 36% Kennedy (LD) 17% Others 8%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What was amazing IMO, was that after a few weeks of pretty tough coverage and with few people even knowing who he was other than a Tory, and perhaps what he looks like and the fact he’s “posh”… Cameron’s beating Brown amongst “swing voters” who’ve been polled by a clear margin, and remember Brown is very much a familiar “know quantity”, this is very good for Cameron – very good indeed.

The ICM poll for the Guardian had the numbers…

Cameron (Conservative) – 43%
Brown (Labour) – 38%

"Swing voters" being defined as voters who would consider voting Tory. Doesn't mean much; Labour are still leading in the main poll (not that means much either. See a previous post) and swing voters haven't decided an election since... 1970 I think.
  

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Sample sizes far too small to draw any conclusions. I've had a look at the regional breakdowns of some polls done in the election; the numbers were just screwy (LibDems leading in the Midlands in more than one poll for example).

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Early days yet. Cameron is still an unknown, Labour haven't had a go at his image yet and all that.

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IIRC they need a swing of about 9pts (might be a bit less but you get the idea) to win an overall majority of 1.

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That comparision is made of just about every new kid on the block in every country around.

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I suppose you could make a case for '64 (Wilson swinging several key marginals in Liverpool) but other than that... no. Things just don't work like that here.

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When he actually comes up with some policies, maybe