Yet another Tory leadership contest!

[Dave from Michigan]

that electon calculator is interesting

Party 
CON   40.00%     304
LAB      34.00%   304
LIB   15.00%          8

so if this happened even if the conservative party won the popular vote by 6% they would still only be tied in the seats held.   

also when was the last time any party recieved a majority of all votes (50%+ 1)

[Peter]

that electon calculator is interesting

Party 
CON   40.00%     304
LAB      34.00%   304
LIB   15.00%          8

so if this happened even if the conservative party won the popular vote by 6% they would still only be tied in the seats held.

It won't be quite that bad after the Boundary Reviews (redistricting) are taken into account, but the electoral system will still have an inbuilt Labour bias I expect.

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1935, but even then, that was a time of National Government (similar to Germany's present Grand Coalition). The last time one party got 50% on its own was in 1931 when the Tories polled 55%, and the time before that was 1900.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It won't be quite that bad after the Boundary Reviews (redistricting) are taken into account, but the electoral system will still have an inbuilt Labour bias I expect.

The inbuilt bias (o/c it should be noted that this is mainly due to low turnout in Labour areas not any inbuilt bias in the drawing of the constituencies. Back in the '50's when Labour turnout was higher than Tory turnout the situation was reversed) seems likely to reduce in terms of seats... but at the same time a lot of Labour marginals become less marginal.

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...and you can't really compare raw totals in elections before 1974 with elections after 1974; before then it was the norm to have just two candidates run in each constituency (even in the '20's and '30's this happend a lot) or for the Liberal candidate to be little more than an unfunded write-in.
Oh and I'd dispute that the National Government was similer to the Grand Coalition in Germany; most of Labour stayed out [insert standard issue rant about MacDonald and then standard issue gloating about Seaham 1935 here] after all.

[Rural Radical]

Good to see Shrewsbury and The Wrekin in Line for Labour Gains. Though in truth this on old boundaries. For instance Shrewsbury will be easier to gain (when the reviewers eventually start lopping off rural wards to the south of the town it will be unwinnable for a Tory. Similar to other county town seats such as Gloucester and Worcester.). Wrekin makes it harder to regain after the review (a net tory gain of about 1,500 votes with the removal of Ketley into Telford).

[Ben.]

This is bizarre, turns out that fewer than 70 people made up the sample which for a time saw Davis’ prospects suddenly rocket back into contention, anyway here are the details…   

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Link : http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/11/09/revealed-davis-poll-boost-based-on-support-of-just-61-people/#comments

[minionofmidas]

Just goes to show you that political betting is not all that great an idea.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the Torygraph is saying that Cameron has a huuuuuuuuge lead in votes already cast. Not sure how they know this (exit poll?) though.
I don't buy the Torygraph and I've not looked at their website since they took off those excellent constituency profiles for the 2001 election, so someone else will have to find all that out.
Political Betting will probably have something.

[afleitch]

I've voted for Cameron. I think it would be fair to say that Davis has never inspired me to vote for him, even during Cameron's weakest moments.

[britishstudent]

davis probably has the best skills and experience, but cameron is the one that has the ability to bring the party into government.

why do americans have this obsession with tony blair and think he is a great leader?

[minionofmidas]

Iraq War.

[britishstudent]

americans like him because of that? im not a fan of blair, but i dont really have strong feelings about the war, the war doesnt make me think he is a good or bad leader

[Gustaf]

The real beauty of the TV debate was Cameron and Davis hailing Ireland as their economic model. Oh the irony of it, they praise a country, which from what I can gather, has bought into the European idea hook, line and sinker

I'm glad I'm not the only one who spotted that irony.

What's the irony? It's easier to like Europe if it means tons of aid than if it means paying that aid. Ireland gets money despite being way richer than many paying countries (like the UK or Sweden). Ireland's economic development doesn't, apart from that fact, have much to do with the EU.

[Cubby]

I just voted today. From what I remember, I chose Kenneth Clarke b/c he seemed okay and had a nice personality, which isn't an essential quality, but helps win elections (see Davis, Gray and Gore, Al)

What happened to David Davids?

The Economist this month seemed to imply that David Cameron will be the next Tory leader, though it said Michael Howard is still there.

[Ben.]

Have we just given up on this thread now that Cameron seems an inevitability?  

The Good news for the Tories is that Cameron continues to do well in the polls despite the fact that most voters don’t really know who he is, what’s more his appearance on the Jonathan Dimbelby show on ITV was very very good, I only saw it the other day, but a big improvement on his Question Time Debate performance on  the BBC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have we just given up on this thread now that Cameron seems an inevitability?

Pretty much  

O/c upsets do happen and I suspect that that's what Kennedy is currently praying for

[afleitch]

Have we just given up on this thread now that Cameron seems an inevitability?

Pretty much  

O/c upsets do happen and I suspect that that's what Kennedy is currently praying for

I agree. I want the Liberal Democrats to crash and burn they have brought out the worst in British politics and in particular political campaigning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For some reason I find this photo very, very funny:

[afleitch]

For some reason I find this photo very, very funny:

Cameron looks like he needs the toilet and Davis is doing his best Marlon Brando 'Godfather' impression.

[Democratic Hawk]

David Cameron revealed as the fifth cousin twice removed of HM Queen Elizabeth II

http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=2350792005

He is the great-great-great-great-great grandson of William IV and his mistress, Dorothy Jordon

Bad luck, Dave. Your royal lineage is from the wrong side of the blanket

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Result due any minute now...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron: 134464
Davis: 64398

[minionofmidas]

He's also descended of the House of MacDuff! So the Tories have the three witches from Macbeth to thank for him!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So that's about 67% for Cameron. Ouch. Let's see who won the prediction contest...

[Democratic Hawk]

Let's just wait and see how "moderate" Cameron actually is, when we see how many wing nuts he appoints to the Shadow Cabinet. He's won convincingly enough not to pander to them

Dave

[afleitch]

Congratulations Cameron (though he's no Alan Duncan) Now don't dissapoint