Yet another Tory leadership contest!

[Peter]

Rifkind has endorsed Clarke

I think hurts Fox the most - I don't think he will have eaten away at Davis' lead in the MPs to be able to beat him, and Cameron looks to be going strongly, so I doubt he can beat him. Clarke also appears to have a reasonable amount of support.

[Democratic Hawk]

This was the situation regarding the Conservative Party Leadership Race as reported in The Times   13/10/05 (so it may have changed a little today):

David Davis

Declared: 66 / Probable: 4

David Cameron

Declared: 32 / Probable 6 [including Michael Howard]

Ken Clarke

Declared: 23 / Probable 5

Liam Fox

Declared: 16 / Probable 8 [including former leaders William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith]

There are 18 'waverers': Davis or Cameron? [2]; Cameron or Clarke? [5]; Cameron or Fox? [3]; Davis or Fox? [8]

There are 12 'undecideds' and 10 'won't say'    

It was reported on Teletext yesterday evening that Ken Clarke is struggling to make it to the final three and according to The Herald http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/48798.html a right-wing deal has seen Fox eclipse Clarke

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron under increasing pressure over drugs apparently

[Democratic Hawk]

Cameron under increasing pressure over drugs apparently

So it would seem. I happen to like him personally

Dave

[afleitch]

Camerons team blame the Daily 'Hate' Mail. Dirty rag.

[Ben.]

This was the situation regarding the Conservative Party Leadership Race as reported in The Times   13/10/05 (so it may have changed a little today):

David Davis

Declared: 66 / Probable: 4

David Cameron

Declared: 32 / Probable 6 [including Michael Howard]

Ken Clarke

Declared: 23 / Probable 5

Liam Fox

Declared: 16 / Probable 8 [including former leaders William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith]

There are 18 'waverers': Davis or Cameron? [2]; Cameron or Clarke? [5]; Cameron or Fox? [3]; Davis or Fox? [8]

There are 12 'undecideds' and 10 'won't say'    

It was reported on Teletext yesterday evening that Ken Clarke is struggling to make it to the final three and according to The Herald http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/48798.html a right-wing deal has seen Fox eclipse Clarke

Dave

I doubt Hauge will back Fox, personally i think he could back Cameron or Davis, IDS should be a lock for Fox along with a number of other right-wingers who might have been expected to have gone for Davis, but i don't buy that Hague will back Fox, though Howard is almost certain to back Cameron IMHO.

The drugs story was started by the mail and they seem to have taken a dim view of Cameron, personally i think his admission that a member of his family has had problems with drugs and he won't talk about it - is a very good move it further legitimises his stance and could even mean the story backfires on those seeking to smear Cameron.

The raising of class A drugs as an issue, is simply a tactical move if Cameron turns round and denies that he has ever touched speed (for example) he would then have to say weather he’d ever touched Dope, at the same time it places Cameron in an awkward position… entirely unfounded accusation and a darn dirty tactic, but that’s politics, what’s more its clear that the Davis camp are scared and the Clark camp is certainly not happy at all.   

First round of voting on Tuesday and my personal expectation is that Davis gets something like 65 votes, with a handful of unannounced defections to Fox and Cameron, Cameron comes second with just bellow 50 (being optimistic ), Fox and Clark both finishing with around 30-35… of those two though Clark has seen lots of his potential backers either go to Davis (Damien Green for example) or, more importantly, to Cameron (two defections to Cameron the other day from Clark’s camp).

After that, an uninspiring placing for Davis (say bellow 63) would probably mean that anything from 5-25 of his backers might switch to Fox or Cameron. If, as now seems likely, Clark is the first to be eliminated, then I’d say that easily ¾ (or more) of his supporters will switch to Cameron with a few potentially flowing to Davis. Baring a complete meltdown for Davis even after a disappointing showing in the first round its hard to see Fox securing a place in the final members ballot in December and its hard to see Clark surviving to the second round. With polling giving Cameron big leads amongst the rank and file membership, I’d be surprised if anyone could beat him in the final round, though the margin won’t be as huge as the polls had suggested a few days ago (against Davis it’ll probably be in the region of 40-45%/ 55-60% in Cameron’s favour).   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Camerons team blame the Daily 'Hate' Mail. Dirty rag.

Yes, it is a disgusting little publication. Not usually one to have any symphathy with Old Etonians... but... what they're doing is vicious and needlessly cruel. So what if a relative of his is or was a junkie?

Buncha fascists

[Ben.]

Not usually one to have any symphathy with Old Etonians...

Come now Al, that kind of overt prejudice is really beneath you

It doesn’t matter who you are, where you come from or even what advantages your parents may have sought for you in life as far as I’m concerned. In the case of Cameron his background might raise some questions about his life experiences and its relevance to most of the country but very few people outside of the political left care about that, and even fewer would hold it against him and they would be quite right not to if you ask me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Come now Al, that kind of overt prejudice is really beneath you

ALL OLD ETONIANS SHOULD BE BURNDED AT THER STAK!!!!!!!111111111

It was meant in an ironic way
I'm not happy at Associated Press's nasty little vendetta against him at all... just because their candidate is wobbling a wee bit...

Actually I'm a little upset that I might not be able to call the leader of the opposition a psychopath and make off colour jokes about Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde now that Davis is busy commiting political hari-kari 

Personally I wouldn't mind Cameron as Tory leader as it'd mean the number of LibDem M.P's might well end up being halved...
...and the possibility of his social liberalism turning off blue rinse white collar Tory voters in certain rural constituencies (their turnout levels are truely amazing at present... bastards...) potentially costing them more than just a few agricultural seats... and causing the heads of more than a few nutters in the "Countryside" Annoyance to explode...

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Oh, fair enough yes. I reserve the right to mock any politician for anything that's reasonable to mock though

Nowt more irritating that the sort of stuff Davis has been repeating over and over again like a parrot:

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

Do you know what his voting record on benefits for single mums is, btw? Could make "interesting" reading...

[Ben.]

Agreed Al, I think i read that Cameron had an audiance with dear rupert the other day... could prove interesting, Murodch liked Howard (unlike either Hauge or IDS) yet knew that Blair would win through in May, things could be far more fluid going into 2009/10 what more the divide between a pretty conventional, though apealing, Tory leader and Brown and Kennedy will be far sharper than we saw last May IMHO... 

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

Do you know what his voting record on benefits for single mums is, btw? Could make "interesting" reading...

...after his conference flop it seems that Davis has pretty much been reduced to this all the damn time! His argument that he’s the only Tory who could have some pull in urban and northern Britain, could well have some truth but in all fairness its besides the point!

..sure the Tories could do with reviving those moribund local parties in the North and the Big Cities and rebuilding their base in municipal government in both, but the Tories’ will not get back into government doing either, they need to win back the south and the west midland suburbs and that has to be their real hope, especially against a Brown lead Labour Party, there are comparatively few seats where the Tories would stand a chance of winning in urban or northern Britain even if lots of effort was spent reviving the party, at least in the foreseeable future.

[afleitch]

Hitler also grew up in a rubbish house with his mother and an alcholic and abusive father. Some people have had it worse than you David Davis

[Ben.]

Hitler also grew up in a rubbish house with his mother and an alcholic and abusive father. Some people have had it worse than you David Davis

LOL!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4345122.stm

[Ben.]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4345122.stm

Someone’s scared very scared

Though it was a poor performance and Davis pretty much got bullied and bated into it by Piers Morgan [spits]   

[afleitch]

The Sundays come up with nothing...again.

In Scotland, the Scotland on Sunday openly endorsed David Cameron (I would say the merry band of Tory members in Scotland are probably split between Cameron and Fox)

The Sunday Mail, the Sunday version of the Daily Record (nicknames: Daily Ranger, Daily Pravda and Daily Rag-cord) Scotland's very own mouthpiece for the anti-Catholic, homophobic scandal loving working class (Celtic fans read the Sun ) believes Cameron to be 'smarmy' and backs Davis...simply because he is easier for Labour to beat at the ballot box.

[Michael Z]

The whole drugs issue shows how desperate Cameron's opponents are. I wonder if the Hate Mail and other Tories realise that, by ousting Cameron, they would simply be shooting themselves in the foot since Labour and Lib Dem would absolutely love to see Davis as Tory leader.

I personally think this is a storm in a teacup and could backfire badly on Cameron's opponents. The fact that Davis has called on his supporters to no longer mention the drugs issue suggests they've started to notice as much. In any case, I recall mentioning Cameron as the best possible candidate as early as May, so I'll start taking my accolades now, thankyouverymuch.

[Democratic Hawk]

According to BPIX poll in The 'Hate' Mail on Sunday, Labour currently has a 7-point lead over the Tories but if Cameron were leader it would reduce to 5-points; but with Clarke as leader it would increase to 9-points and with either Davis or Fox as leader it would increase to 12-points

If Conservative MPs and the wider Conservative Party are sincere about changing for the better (i.e. breaking with it's nasty Thatcherite past) they have no choice but to elect David Cameron

Dave

[Ben.]

Clarke now expected to be the first voted out, most of the movment amougst Tory MPs seems to be towards Cameron and Fox, very little positive movment for Davis or Clarke.

[Democratic Hawk]

Clarke now expected to be the first voted out, most of the movment amougst Tory MPs seems to be towards Cameron and Fox, very little positive movment for Davis or Clarke.

I think more than likely the final two to face the party membership in a nationwide ballot will be Cameron and Davis. Much as I'd love to see Davis and Fox slug it out, I don't think it's gonna happen

Failing a complete utter fall from grace somewhere along the way, David Cameron will be the next leader of the Conservative Party

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How likely are either of these to happen?

1. The minions of Associated Press having a little suprise waiting for Cameron tomorrow morning...
2. Cameron v Fox in the runoff

[afleitch]

Cameron v Fox, I believe would be a tighter race than Cameron v Davis. Conservative grassroots seem to really have a dislike to Davis and I personally believe the drugs thing has aided Cameron; portraying him as one who sticks to his guns as opposed to Davis who plots and shifts his stance to be more 'appealing.'

If it was Davis v Fox I would probably cry in a corner somewhere. I will gladly put my mark next to Clarke's or Cameron's name come December, otherwise I have no idea what to do.

On a lighter note; former soap star, model and all round gay icon Adam Rickett has allegedly made the Conservative shortlist for MP selection

I find that...very appealing to the senses!

[Ben.]

Right I’ll make my call, I think Clark is going to be out beaten by a slim margin by Fox into fourth, I think Davis will underperform and that could cause him real problems (meltdown, perhaps?) while Cameron should get upwards of 50 votes.

If Davis gets lower than the 63 votes he claimed to have pledged at the time of the conference then I think his campaign could well collapse, but only if Fox is still in the race meaning right-wingers could swing to the “good doctor” while some of Davis more moderate (and indeed pragmatic) backers swing to Cameron. If Cameron gets over 50 he’s doing very well (he already effectively got 41-42 votes in the bag) and with Clark out (if that happens) he should come top of the poll on Thursday.

…Declaration around 5.30pm            

[afleitch]

Clarke goes out. Supporters swing behind Cameron (with a significant going towards Fox)

Davis supporters fragment, about 15 switch 10 to Fox 5 to Cameron

Cameron comes first in leadership ballot, Davis second, Fox a very close third

Cameron beats Davis in membership ballot

Cameron becomes leader

Cameron becomes Prime Minister in 2010, forming a minority Conservative government.

Wins a majority in an election called two years later.

Man walks on Mars

[Michael Z]

I doubt Cameron could beat Brown in a 2009/10 election, given the massive swing required for a Conservative majority, but he should be able to consolidate enough votes to win in 2013/14/15.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Guy on the news from the Clarke camp looked pretty depressed