Yet another Tory leadership contest!

[afleitch]

A Guide

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/uk_politics/05/con_contenders/html/default.stm

I have an actual vote! Whoo!

Seriously. I support Ken Clarke wholeheartedly, but I have a strong like for David Cameron and an inbuilt hatred of Liam Fox. So for me it's whoever can stop David Davis. (but isn't to the right of him) 

Conference should be fun. Ken speaks tomorrow.

[afleitch]

Cameron really, really wowed me with his speech. Even my Labour supporting mother; a teacher agreed with his condemnation of the education system. Clarke to me seems still to be the most likely banner carrier for the 'left' of the party, If however Cameron emerged victorious I would be a pleased as punch. He is a fantastic orator and a sound individual.

My own order of preference:

1. Ken Clarke
2. David Cameron (and catching up)
3. Malcolm Rifkind
4. Any other challenger from the One Nation wing who throws in their hat
5. David Davis
6. Liam Fox (He wants to tinker with abortion limits)

[afleitch]

Fox's father, a teacher taught my mother French at school and my aunt was at univeristy with him when he trained as a GP. Hence we have a family dislike for him!

[afleitch]

On 'This Week' Michael Portillo suggests that we could end up with Clarke v Cameron

[afleitch]

The day the Conservatives become more socially liberal than Labour then Labour will finally have jumped to the right of the Tories. Very strange idea indeed.

[afleitch]

The thing is Labour have no idea how to take on Cameron. He comes with no baggage having only been elected in 2001 so Labour can't drag out the whole 1979-97 record to attack him with because he simply wasn't there (In the same way Blair could not be pinned down either forn Labour's 70's mess as he was elected in 1983) Inexperience is not necessarily a bad thing as long as Cameron does not wrong foot himself.

This has been the most important Conservative Conference for a generation and I do believe it is the first step to see them regain power in  5 but more likely 10 years time.

[afleitch]

Yes I was an active member of the Labour Party until about 18 months ago IIRC. I left for a variety of reasons, Labour's authoritarianism and straightjacket education system and so forth. Iraq wasn't an issue for me.

In Scotland it is the Conservatives who are the party of progressive ideas in a Parliament who are made up by leftists of all persuasions.

Labour for me is this unmoveable beast who refuses to allow people to be different. For my friends studying in England it is taxing and plunging them into a debt they don't deserve. I could be here all day really citing the reasons why Labour let me down badly.

As for the Tories I am from the libertarian/socially liberal wing and hope that either Clarke or Cameron win through so we can have a realyopposition to Labour this Labour autocracy that ignores conference notions, throws out an 82 year old man for whom the party is his life and annoints Gordon Brown as the next Prime Minister without a vote being cast.

[afleitch]

Sir Malcolm Rifkind has withdrawn from the race.

[afleitch]

Camerons team blame the Daily 'Hate' Mail. Dirty rag.

[afleitch]

Hitler also grew up in a rubbish house with his mother and an alcholic and abusive father. Some people have had it worse than you David Davis

[afleitch]

The Sundays come up with nothing...again.

In Scotland, the Scotland on Sunday openly endorsed David Cameron (I would say the merry band of Tory members in Scotland are probably split between Cameron and Fox)

The Sunday Mail, the Sunday version of the Daily Record (nicknames: Daily Ranger, Daily Pravda and Daily Rag-cord) Scotland's very own mouthpiece for the anti-Catholic, homophobic scandal loving working class (Celtic fans read the Sun ) believes Cameron to be 'smarmy' and backs Davis...simply because he is easier for Labour to beat at the ballot box.

[afleitch]

Cameron v Fox, I believe would be a tighter race than Cameron v Davis. Conservative grassroots seem to really have a dislike to Davis and I personally believe the drugs thing has aided Cameron; portraying him as one who sticks to his guns as opposed to Davis who plots and shifts his stance to be more 'appealing.'

If it was Davis v Fox I would probably cry in a corner somewhere. I will gladly put my mark next to Clarke's or Cameron's name come December, otherwise I have no idea what to do.

On a lighter note; former soap star, model and all round gay icon Adam Rickett has allegedly made the Conservative shortlist for MP selection

I find that...very appealing to the senses!

[afleitch]

Clarke goes out. Supporters swing behind Cameron (with a significant going towards Fox)

Davis supporters fragment, about 15 switch 10 to Fox 5 to Cameron

Cameron comes first in leadership ballot, Davis second, Fox a very close third

Cameron beats Davis in membership ballot

Cameron becomes leader

Cameron becomes Prime Minister in 2010, forming a minority Conservative government.

Wins a majority in an election called two years later.

Man walks on Mars

[afleitch]

A strong showing for Cameron. Will Davis's support crumble? I don't see Fox making the top two, but I easily see Cameron topping the vote on Thursday.

[afleitch]

I believe it would be a closer result between Cameron and Fox, but If Davis' collpase results in a lot of internal friction within the right wing of the party, it will hinder Fox too should he come through.

[afleitch]

My rule of thumb is: A Tory member is still a die-hard right winger if they can still remember Stanley Baldwin!...That's about 40% of the membership then

[afleitch]

I would like to see whomever is in second place to Cameron to stand aside if it is a sweeping 'mandate' from the parliamentary party. If Fox is second, I don't think he will however. It could be preferrable however, as a ballot of the membership would cost the party a significant amount of money.

[afleitch]

Bye bye Foxy. As I mentioned before he appears to be a family 'nemesis' of sorts, so i'm glad he's out. But...will Davis stay in the race or stand down?

[afleitch]

Clarke goes out. Supporters swing behind Cameron (with a significant going towards Fox)

Davis supporters fragment, about 15 switch 10 to Fox 5 to Cameron

Cameron comes first in leadership ballot, Davis second, Fox a very close third

Cameron beats Davis in membership ballot

Cameron becomes leader

Cameron becomes Prime Minister in 2010, forming a minority Conservative government.

Wins a majority in an election called two years later.

Man walks on Mars

Pat on back Close enough

[afleitch]

Apparently several declared Cameron supporters tactically voted for Davis in order to knock Fox out.

[afleitch]

Good to see the 'Lib Dumbs' below 20%. I did a little canvassing back in May for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrat team, bussed in from elsewhere as usual were the worst I've had to deal with. I least you could have a coffee and a chat with the Labour team!

[afleitch]

Funilly enough, I was doing my best to encourage Tory voters in East Dumbartonshire to vote Labour to keep the Lib Dems out in the last few days. Sadly it was not to be.

[afleitch]

AWWWW!

[afleitch]

Not as much as Ken Clarke would have had I feel!

[afleitch]

I believe Labour's Soviet style coronation of Brown as heir apparent may come back to haunt them, especially if they pick Cameron. They can't go back to the old 'remember the miners, poll tax....WHEN (insert current Tory leaders name here) WAS IN POWER!' line and neither can the Lib Dems for that as it simply won't wash anymore, epsecially if the economy goes into meltdown.