Yet another Tory leadership contest!

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I reckon that it'll be someone posh or a psycho

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I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure Clarke would be a Democrat over here.  The fact that that the Conservative party is generally centrist in American terms, and Clarke is on the left wing of that party says it all.

Well the Tories are only centrist in American terms on a couple of social issues (albeit ones that are often crucial; like abortion) and on a couple of issues where they have to be to avoid a wipeout (healthcare)... the Republican party is (for the most part) far more open to government intervention in the economy than the Tories are (although this is a new-ish development) for one thing.
It's very hard to see Clarke as a Democrat; he'd probably be a sort of Rockefeller-Republican type. Remember he first entered Parliament in 1970.

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Anyone got a list of which Tory MP's have endorsed who?

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Fox is a hypocrite, always has been. After all, this former GP was one of the Tory MP's that helped to filibuster a certain private members bill on disability rights...

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When do we find out the winner?

November I think

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O/c it's going to be harder for the Tories to gain more than a few seats next election than it was last one due to the boundary changes. Basically they are going to gain 10 to 20 seats notionally but have their hopes screwed in so, so many others... have a look at the new map for Northants

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Do we have any idea of when the wonks will produce a notional set of results as they did pre-97 and pre-05 for Scotland?

Quite a while; the new map for Greater Manchester will only be finished in just under a year IIRC.
Mind you, a lot of Rallings and Thrasher's notional results for the new Scottish seats and the current UK seats were terrible so

A lot of people have been giving it a bit of a go themselves, often making sooooo many mistakes it's not funny; part of the problem is the fact that results for General Elections are not released by ward (I do know roughly how a couple of wards in the West Midlands voted, but none of that is even close to being official) so they have to use local elections. Voting patterns for local elections are o/c very, very different to General Elections in some areas... a lot of wishful thinking going on as well.

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Anthony Wells’ now does the YouGov polling sites’ webblog, but before that he had a blog of his own and produced a very detailed and impressive analysis of what the notional result for the various seats would be based both on the 05 general election results and the local election results in those areas… he had Labour’s majority down to about 45-50 I seem to remember.

It was impressive for sure... but also very innacurate in places

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Yes, it would have been... but Labour was able to change the seat back to it's normal self (more or less) in the inquiry that always goes with the boundary review. IIRC the LibDems weren't happy either as it made Hallam into a marginal
The boundary commision do throw up some decidedly dodgy seats each review; they usually get killed in the inquiry, but not always. In Havering they tried to gerrymander Rosindell out by adding the Harold Hill estate to Romford and taking out some more middle class areas. Sadly he spotted it and it was changed back in the review...

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And Labour will be in big trouble if Cameron fulfils even half of his initial promise, and that applies especially to a Labour Party lead by Gordon Brown.

Probably not, at least not directly. Can't see Cameron appealing much to people that voted Labour in May; too posh, too socially liberal. LibDems could be in a lot of trouble though. If the Tories pick Cameron and Labour head off in a moralist direction (as looks likely IMO) we could see some big changes in voting patterns in some areas (ie; more Tory gains in London and some very nervous Tory M.P's in East Anglia. Those seats are nowhere near as safe as there majorities look. I can explain more if anyone wants...) 

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Hallam was shockingly marginal under the initial proposals; isn't under the revised ones. Labour vote will go up though; a big ward from the abolished Hillsborough seat's been added. Reading through the minutes from the Sheffield review is quite interesting.

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Labour then Labour will finally have jumped to the right of the Tories.

Yes and no; economically that's never going to be the case

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Well... not really. Social liberalism in the Labour party is a relatively new concept (and has always been a minority position among it's voters).

Always remember that the first labour party was founded in a Methodist chapel in Bradford

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Remember Al, that Labour's best performance at the election was amongst better off voters, it saw slow erosion in its support amongst poorer more working class voters to the Tories!

Not true actually; the exit poll's class breakdown blew up and blew badly. Looking at the actual results, it's clear that Labour pretty much collapsed with white collar voters, while polling much better with working class voters than the exit polls indicated. If the exit polls were right, we certainly wouldn't have lost Putney, St Albans, Reading East etc. while we would certainly have lost Pendle, Tamworth, Keighley, Redditch, Burton etc. and Battersea would not have gone to, what was it? Three or four recounts.
Labour's best showings came in places like the Black Country... trying to find affluent seats where Labour did well is very hard; the only ones I can think of are that belt in Northeast London (Harrow, Brent North, Hendon etc) along with Leeds NE (which is very similer)... and that's more to do with ethnic/religious composition than affluence. And even then we lost a lot of votes in those seats... by "good" showing in them I pretty much mean "we held them, just".

Now, I'm not sure why the otherwise good exit polls got this wrong... but is it possible that the apparently good prediction from it was a fluke? Most of the other breakdowns included in it seem a bit off as well, although not as misleadingly so.
And some things that should have been polled were not... even though they'd have been very useful.

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It's never a good idea to predict how the economy will be doing Best trick is always to see how well the U.S economy does (when America sneezes the world gets a cold and all that), but I don't see any evidence whatsoever that middle class voters saved Labour many (or more than Finchley) marginals at all... certainly in the West Midlands, middle class voters abandoned ship en masse (with two exceptions; Brum Selly Oak (personal vote for M.P), Wolverhampton SW (race... sadly...) and the same is true in Northern England.

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"Screw the West South, we'll take the rest" (doesn't work as well as the Canadian orginal does it? Damn). Bearing in mind the social composition of our remaining southern (non-London) seats, we don't have that much to worry from Cameron on that front. The LibDems do. Oh dear, oh dear... that could get rather brutal...
And we certainly don't have to worry about him in the West Midlands; the sort of Tories that do well here tend to be rather Powellite (it's not "nice" to admit it, but it doesn't stop it from being true...) Whatever Cameron is, he ain't Powellite.

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Indeed. I think he's getting dangerously close to being a parody of himself

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We have some polls!

ICM/BBC:

Clarke 27% (-13)
Davis 13% (+3)
Cameron 13% (+4)
Fox 7 (+4)
Rifkind 3% (-1)
NOTA 8% (+4)
Dunno 30% (-3)

YG/Sunday Times

Cameron 39% (+23)
Clarke 26% (-4)
Davis 14% (-16)
Fox 13% (-)
Rifkind 1% (-3)

This is all academic for now though; all that matters for the time being is M.P's. Cameron says he's got 28 confirmed. Davis still saying he has 60 plus.

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Labour lost Reading East because the local party suffered a rift - it probably would have held if it weren't for that.

True; but at the same time if the exit poll's MRS Social Grade numbers were correct, Labour would have held it

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The thing is Labour have no idea how to take on Cameron.

Up to a point yes; but then up to a similer point he doesn't know how to attack Labour. Both can lash out with vauge rhetoric, but neither have really been tested against each other yet.

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Strictly speaking IDS's could have been attacked for that either as he only entered Parliament in 1992 and was an obscure backbencher for most of the Major period.
Having said that, Cameron wouldn't be personally attacked over it, but the Tory party as a whole still will be. And north of the Severn-Wash line, that attack will still work on the whole.

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That the economic problems in the '70's (largely solved by '79, btw) were somehow Labour's fault is a very effective media myth and one that's somehow lasted... As an interesting little point, Labour's electoral woes didn't start in 1979 (Thatcher was very unpopular early on, Callaghan remained personally popular and Labour had a decent poll lead by the end of the year) but following the disasterous Conference in 1980 which resulted in Callaghan calling it quits, Michael Foot becoming leader and the SDP breaking away...

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Which is the problem. Ask the Aussie equivilent (more or less), Mark Latham, about that.

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The word is that more than a 1/3rd of Davis' 60+ declared supporters are wobbly right now, whats the betting he gets bellow 60 on the first ballot, with Cameron around 35-40 and Fox higher than expected.

Interesting; although you always have to be very careful with rumours... I think that Davis has a couple of weeks to save his campaign otherwise he sinks like a Portillo.

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Which has me thinking this; Can Cameron keep his momentum? And if not... what happens then?

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Rifkind has endorsed Clarke

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Cameron under increasing pressure over drugs apparently

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Camerons team blame the Daily 'Hate' Mail. Dirty rag.

Yes, it is a disgusting little publication. Not usually one to have any symphathy with Old Etonians... but... what they're doing is vicious and needlessly cruel. So what if a relative of his is or was a junkie?

Buncha fascists

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Come now Al, that kind of overt prejudice is really beneath you

ALL OLD ETONIANS SHOULD BE BURNDED AT THER STAK!!!!!!!111111111

It was meant in an ironic way
I'm not happy at Associated Press's nasty little vendetta against him at all... just because their candidate is wobbling a wee bit...

Actually I'm a little upset that I might not be able to call the leader of the opposition a psychopath and make off colour jokes about Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde now that Davis is busy commiting political hari-kari 

Personally I wouldn't mind Cameron as Tory leader as it'd mean the number of LibDem M.P's might well end up being halved...
...and the possibility of his social liberalism turning off blue rinse white collar Tory voters in certain rural constituencies (their turnout levels are truely amazing at present... bastards...) potentially costing them more than just a few agricultural seats... and causing the heads of more than a few nutters in the "Countryside" Annoyance to explode...

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Oh, fair enough yes. I reserve the right to mock any politician for anything that's reasonable to mock though

Nowt more irritating that the sort of stuff Davis has been repeating over and over again like a parrot:

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

"I grew up in a council estate, the child of a single mum"

Do you know what his voting record on benefits for single mums is, btw? Could make "interesting" reading...

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4345122.stm

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How likely are either of these to happen?

1. The minions of Associated Press having a little suprise waiting for Cameron tomorrow morning...
2. Cameron v Fox in the runoff

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Guy on the news from the Clarke camp looked pretty depressed

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Well, he can't sing or act, so I do hope that he has some brains. Where would he be looking to stand, because he could certainly revitalise the Tory vote in certain urban centres in the North West where they've been effectively absent since 97 and even before that in some cases.

Depends what you mean by urban; no genuinely urban seat in the North West is exactly predisposed to voting for a gay icon, let alone a Tory... (the collapse of the Tory vote in North Manchester or or East Liverpool has more to do with the end of the anti-Irish vote than anything else. Amazing to think that Manchester Blackley used to be a bellwether marginal isn't it?) but some of the south Manchester suburban seats (Manchester Withington (inner suburban in that case), Cheadle, Altrincham & Sale West (which already has a Tory M.P) and so on) would be much more interested. Although the only thing a strong (or just not pathetically weak) Tory candidate in Withington would do would be to cost the LibDems the seat (although the provisional boundary changes also do that IIRC).

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Result should have been out about three minutes ago. It's been delayed until 5:30. Now... why? A recount maybe?
Tory M.P's are heading to where the results will be announced now...

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Word is that third place was tied...

Not long now