Yet another Tory leadership contest!

[Democratic Hawk]

Whoever takes the party to the hard right (i.e. to oblivion), would gladly enjoy my support

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Whoever takes the party to the hard right (i.e. to oblivion), would gladly enjoy my support

Dave

Oh, you support proportional representation then? Because I'm confident that that would keep the Tories out of power for a VERY long time to come.

I'm sure it would but I don't like PR. My prefered voting system would be either Alternative Vote or second ballot (with a run-off between the top two and only the top two)with single member constituencies. This, too, I suspect would work against the Tories

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Bye, the Tory rightwingers aren't doing well in this poll. Shame!

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

David Davis's speech was the worst of the conference so far, which suits me fine given my loathing of the man. I hope Clarke wins, picks Cameron as his deputy (kind of a leader-in-waiting), and then hopefully we should have a decent opposition at last.

I'm all for a decent opposition to keep Labour on its toes. I just don't want them back in power

I'm not calling this race for any one yet

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

When I hear Liam Fox banging on about the Conservative Party not shaking off their past and then banging on about Labour's "broken society", I'm rather bemused bearing in mind Margaret Thatcher famously 'abolished', or rather said there was no such thing as society. So I'm afraid, until such time as Fox repudiates Thatcher and the 1980s, he's talking a load of bullsh**t. And his opponents should be beating him up on it

Incidently, I got round to hearing Davis' speech. Strewth, I'm not surprised the race is wide open. I'd have went to sleep as well. Could we have two "moderniser's" on the final ballot or will Davis waverers switch to Fox? Politicians can be fickle, especially rats on a sinking ship

If I were a committed Conservative Party member, I'd support Cameron without question

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

So what do we have when all is said and done then:

A] Cameron, Clarke and Rifkind representing the modernising or even the traditional 'One Nation' brand of conservatism

B] Davis appealing to the centre-right and Fox appealing to the right [i.e. the more Thatcherite brand]

Chances are the contest will feature one from A] and one from B] and I have a gut instinct that Cameron is gaining ground on Clarke and Fox is gaining ground on Davis. Rifkind's out of it. I'm not making any prediction as yet

Come 2009 and Labour's fourth successive electoral victory, my money's on William Hague, who seems to have outshone the whole lot of 'em

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Apparently, Davis is losing support from waverers to both Cameron and Fox

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Sir Malcolm Rifkind has withdrawn from the race.

I'm not surprised

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, if Cameron and Clarke represent the Tory 'Left', I'd say that Cameron is the true standard bearer since Clarke has the baggage of serving under the Blessed Margaret. Cameron, therefore, would be the genuine article

Cameron may be posh but the prospect of a genuinely compassionate conservative is preferable to some hard right winger of more humble origins

I was born Labour and I'll die Labour (much the same as with the Democrats) but the prospect of a Prime Minister Cameron, should he win the his party's leadership and the subsequent general election, can only be an improvement on 1979-97. Only time will tell and rest assured I'll working my butt off for Brown when the time comes

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

This was the situation regarding the Conservative Party Leadership Race as reported in The Times   13/10/05 (so it may have changed a little today):

David Davis

Declared: 66 / Probable: 4

David Cameron

Declared: 32 / Probable 6 [including Michael Howard]

Ken Clarke

Declared: 23 / Probable 5

Liam Fox

Declared: 16 / Probable 8 [including former leaders William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith]

There are 18 'waverers': Davis or Cameron? [2]; Cameron or Clarke? [5]; Cameron or Fox? [3]; Davis or Fox? [8]

There are 12 'undecideds' and 10 'won't say'    

It was reported on Teletext yesterday evening that Ken Clarke is struggling to make it to the final three and according to The Herald http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/48798.html a right-wing deal has seen Fox eclipse Clarke

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Cameron under increasing pressure over drugs apparently

So it would seem. I happen to like him personally

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

According to BPIX poll in The 'Hate' Mail on Sunday, Labour currently has a 7-point lead over the Tories but if Cameron were leader it would reduce to 5-points; but with Clarke as leader it would increase to 9-points and with either Davis or Fox as leader it would increase to 12-points

If Conservative MPs and the wider Conservative Party are sincere about changing for the better (i.e. breaking with it's nasty Thatcherite past) they have no choice but to elect David Cameron

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Clarke now expected to be the first voted out, most of the movment amougst Tory MPs seems to be towards Cameron and Fox, very little positive movment for Davis or Clarke.

I think more than likely the final two to face the party membership in a nationwide ballot will be Cameron and Davis. Much as I'd love to see Davis and Fox slug it out, I don't think it's gonna happen

Failing a complete utter fall from grace somewhere along the way, David Cameron will be the next leader of the Conservative Party

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

On a lighter note; former soap star, model and all round gay icon Adam Rickett has allegedly made the Conservative shortlist for MP selection

I find that...very appealing to the senses!

Enough said on my part!

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Incidentally, I'd never voted in this poll "Who would you like to see win?", so I've just this minute voted for Dr Fox, which is one more than the none he had before

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Davis 62; Cameron 56; Fox 42 and Clarke 38. It's a lot closer than I expected. All bar Davis, have picked up the votes, who it would seem has lost a few. I wonder to whom they went?

The Conservative Party is clearly dvided with 104 votes on the Right and 94 on the 'Left' - it doesn't get much closer. Is the party having an identity crisis? I wouldn't be surprised if Davis continues to lose support, with Fox probably the major beneficiary. Will Clarke's support shift en masse to Cameron?

So on to Round 2, a 'lefty', a righty and a wing nut

Dave

P.S. Nevermind, better luck next time, Ken !

[Democratic Hawk]

Any one gonna make any predictions for Thursday's ballot:

Cameron 86
Davis 54
Fox 56

A wild stab in the dark on my part . Rightwingers see Fox as the man to beat Cameron in the membership ballot and he scrapes through to the final showdown

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Any one gonna make any predictions for Thursday's ballot:

Cameron 86
Davis 54
Fox 56

A wild stab in the dark on my part . Rightwingers see Fox as the man to beat Cameron in the membership ballot and he scrapes through to the final showdown

Dave

It's come to my attention that I can't bloody count (unless 2 Tories do, indeed, abstain)

I'm amending my prediction to:

Cameron 87
Davis 54
Fox 57

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

According to The Daily Torygraph , most Conservative activists want a Cameron-Fox showdown in the final

A poll of members suggests that Cameron would get 59% of the vote, Fox 18% and Davis 15%

In Cameron (72%) - Davis (22%) match up, Fox supporters would break for Davis 58% to 35% for Cameron

In a Fox (48%) - Davis (39%) match-up, Cameron supporters would break 46% for Fox to 37% for Davis

In a Cameron (67%) - Fox (27%) match-up, Davis supporters would break 53% for Cameron and 39% for Fox

Furthermore, 45% think that the Conservatives should move towards the political Centre, with more moderate 'one nation policies' (60% of Cameronites; 20% of Davisites; 19% of Foxites); while, 48% think that the party should remain firmly on the Right of politics and put clear blue water between them and the Labour Party (33% of Cameronites; 76% of Davisites; 73% of Foxites)

There's a range of other data too

Comment

When I saw the headline figures I chuckled asking myself whether I'm supposed to believe that 59% of party members are 'modernisers', 18% 'Thatcherites' and 15% 'mainstream right wingers'. It doesn't seem plausible but then further down the data it is evident that the Conservative Party rank-and-file are, indeed, having somewhat of an identity crisis with them being more or less effectively divided as to whether to gravitate to the political Centre or remain a party of the political Right. The latter group are 3% ahead, which suggests that a significant number of rightwingers are supporting Cameron out of political pragmatism, rather than ideological conviction, perceiving him as the guy who can return the Conservative Party to power

Only time will tell

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Result:
Cameron 90
Davis 57
Fox 51

Cameron has less than 50% support from the parliamentary party, whether Davis concedes the run-off is his decision but they would be wise to allow Cameron to seek a true mandate from the membership; otherwise, he could become a lame duck 'moderniser' in thrall to the party's right wing

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Cameron has less than 50% support from the parliamentary party, whether Davis concedes the run-off is his decision but they would be wise to allow Cameron to seek a true mandate from the membership; otherwise, he could become a lame duck 'moderniser' in thrall to the party's right wing

Dave

From just after listening to him speaking just after the result, it is clear Davis does intend to continue the contest.

And nor should he. If he runs, and loses, it could be a sign that the Tory Party leopard is about to change its spots. For what it's worth though, I'm done with the Tories - the Blessed Margaret saw to that

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Apparently several declared Cameron supporters tactically voted for Davis in order to knock Fox out.

Highly likely, I'd say

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The Sun has a poll:

Brown (Lab) 39% Cameron (Con) 36% Kennedy (LD) 18% Others 7%

Brown (Lab) 40% Davis (Con) 33% Kennedy (LD) 19% Others 8%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

epsecially if the economy goes into meltdown.

Which isn't likely

Has slow down though, and added to this people are feeling the pinch from Brown’s high taxes

I'm pretty sure that lower inflation and lower interest rates, as a whole since 1997, more than offset any tax increases. New Labour does not tax punitively. And if tax cuts are all the Tories have to offer, then big deal

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

On a personal level, I like Cameron but as far as party politics go, I'm rooting for Davis - I'm not having the party of Thatcher laying claim to the centre ground

Dave