Day 42: Tennessee

[MaC]

In 2000:



In 2004:



Looks like although Gore didn't win his state, he had an impact on the political geography.

A notable election, and probably last really close one in this state, in 1980:

Reagan-48.7% to Carter-48.41%

Discuss

[Smash255]

Partially a black/ white thing.  Western parts of the state (Memphis especially) is fairly strong Democrat, though their suburbs are Republican.  Other Democratic areas in portions of western & central part of the state where their is a decent sized minority population.  Outside of the memphis suburbs white voters in the western & parts of the central part of the state are Republican, but not as staunchly Republican as some other parts of the south.  Eastern Tennesse is very white, very conservative & very Republican

[Gustaf]

Tennessee's two eastern congressional districts were for a long time the only ones in the old confederacy to consistently elect Republicans. (I think a majority of all races won in the South by Republicans occurred here).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like although Gore didn't win his state, he had an impact on the political geography.

Yes, of course he did. Unlike Lurch he has (or at least had) some appeal to the Yellow Dogs in Mid Tennessee (have a look at the 2004 results by Congressional District and compare them with the 2000 results by post-2002 Congressional District. Very telling). If he'd not taken TN for granted he'd have won the state and the White House. Now if only Gore had remembered that "All politics is local"...

[Democratic Hawk]

Tennessee's two eastern congressional districts were for a long time the only ones in the old confederacy to consistently elect Republicans. (I think a majority of all races won in the South by Republicans occurred here).

I believe those eastern counties of Tennessee voted to stay in the Union, which explains the historical GOP strength in that part of the state

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Partially a black/ white thing. 

Only very partially.
There#s only one Black majority county in Tennessee (Haywood, the middle one of that three-county red belt NE of Memphis.) Racial politics seem to be very strong in the Memphis/West Tenneessee area, but fairly unimportant outside.

[© tweed]

For whatever reason, Edwards did better in the central part of the state in the primary, the part that Carter won.  Maybe they're southern loyalists.

[minionofmidas]

Probably just a Black-White divide within the Democratic Party. The Georgia primary map is essentially a racial map, with Blacks voting Kerry, Whites Edwards.

[Sam Spade]

The black/white thing is not a very strong influence in Tennessee, as Tennessee has one of the smallest black populations south of the Mason-Dixon line. (16.3%.  Florida and Arkansas have similar populations, only Texas has less)

The simple line with the state is this:  Western Tennessee votes Democrat, Eastern Tennessee votes Republican. 

This state used to be swing state in the 1980s because Central Tennessee was evenly divided. 

However, in the 1990s, the Nashville suburbs continued to grow and moved sharply to the GOP. 

Since 1994, only one Democrat has been elected statewide and that was Phil Bredesen, Mayor of Nashville.

I really can't see this trend changing at all in the future, unless the Democrat party changes.  So for the time being, unless Al Gore runs for President again (probably not even then), this state will be solidly Republican.

[minionofmidas]

The black/white thing is not a very strong influence in Tennessee, as Tennessee has one of the smallest black populations south of the Mason-Dixon line. (16.3%.  Florida and Arkansas have similar populations, only Texas has less)

The simple line with the state is this:  Western Tennessee votes Democrat, Eastern Tennessee votes Republican. 

This state used to be swing state in the 1980s because Central Tennessee was evenly divided. 

However, in the 1990s, the Nashville suburbs continued to grow and moved sharply to the GOP. 

Seems to be a fair bit more complicated actually (although I don't doubt that the aggregate picture for the three regions is as you describe).
Both rural and urban, both poor and affluent East Tennessee is solidly Republican, no debate here.
But West Tennessee has Dem Memphis, Rep Memphis suburbs, and pronounced Rep and pronounced Dem rural areas - and close areas too.
Rural Central Tennessee is traditionally mostly very Dem but trending away from them. Nashville city is Dem, the suburbia is Rep and seems to be rapidly increasing in importance as well as in Republicanness.

[Sam Spade]

The black/white thing is not a very strong influence in Tennessee, as Tennessee has one of the smallest black populations south of the Mason-Dixon line. (16.3%.  Florida and Arkansas have similar populations, only Texas has less)

The simple line with the state is this:  Western Tennessee votes Democrat, Eastern Tennessee votes Republican. 

This state used to be swing state in the 1980s because Central Tennessee was evenly divided. 

However, in the 1990s, the Nashville suburbs continued to grow and moved sharply to the GOP. 

Seems to be a fair bit more complicated actually (although I don't doubt that the aggregate picture for the three regions is as you describe).
Both rural and urban, both poor and affluent East Tennessee is solidly Republican, no debate here.
But West Tennessee has Dem Memphis, Rep Memphis suburbs, and pronounced Rep and pronounced Dem rural areas - and close areas too.
Rural Central Tennessee is traditionally mostly very Dem but trending away from them. Nashville city is Dem, the suburbia is Rep and seems to be rapidly increasing in importance as well as in Republicanness.

Oh, I don't disagree about the internal complexity of the different regions of the state.  I just didn't feel like giving an Al-like complex analysis.

And for pretty much all recent Tennessee state-wide and national races, the simple model applies strongly, so I felt like it was worthy.

[memphis]

Here in the Memphis area, we are losing large numbers of conservative whites to suburbs that are just across the line in Mississippi. By the 2010 Census, Shelby County will be majority African-American. This fact could swing a close election to the Democrats.

[© tweed]

I really can't see this trend changing at all in the future, unless the Democrat party changes.  So for the time being, unless Al Gore runs for President again (probably not even then), this state will be solidly Republican.

Gore would only have a chance in Tennesse against a Giuliani-type candidate.  He's been removed from the state too long, for 16 years now; even in 2000, he was "from DC and not Tennessee".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

even in 2000, he was "from DC and not Tennessee".

People back in Carthage still love him though

[© tweed]

even in 2000, he was "from DC and not Tennessee".

People back in Carthage still love him though

Didn't they vote 67% for him in 2000?  One of Gore's best non-black dominated southern counties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't they vote 67% for him in 2000?  One of Gore's best non-black dominated southern counties.

Smith county was 66.4%, Carthage itself something like 74%.

[MaC]

Something I've gotta wonder about is this state's ability to put out boring as dirt senators like Al Gore and Bill Frist.

[TomC]

For whatever reason, Edwards did better in the central part of the state in the primary, the part that Carter won.  Maybe they're southern loyalists.

Edwards lived in Nashville for a few years. Also, it's the state capital and there are lots of lawyers and pro-lawyer lobbyists. He had a number of endorsements from respected local politicos. I'd guess we are more Southern loyalists than Memphis, but less so than east Tn. & rural areas.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Here in the Memphis area, we are losing large numbers of conservative whites to suburbs that are just across the line in Mississippi. By the 2010 Census, Shelby County will be majority African-American. This fact could swing a close election to the Democrats.

True, we are already plurality AA.  The good news is that rural West TN continues to go in the GOP direction.

[Smash255]

The black/white thing is not a very strong influence in Tennessee, as Tennessee has one of the smallest black populations south of the Mason-Dixon line. (16.3%.  Florida and Arkansas have similar populations, only Texas has less)

The simple line with the state is this:  Western Tennessee votes Democrat, Eastern Tennessee votes Republican. 

This state used to be swing state in the 1980s because Central Tennessee was evenly divided. 

However, in the 1990s, the Nashville suburbs continued to grow and moved sharply to the GOP. 

Since 1994, only one Democrat has been elected statewide and that was Phil Bredesen, Mayor of Nashville.

I really can't see this trend changing at all in the future, unless the Democrat party changes.  So for the time being, unless Al Gore runs for President again (probably not even then), this state will be solidly Republican.

Looking over the black white thing, its not as strong as I thought.  The western 1/4 of the state irts pretty strong (not the majority part), but out of the counties in the western 1/4 of Tenn that the Dems won, Lake County has the smallest % of blacks at 31%.  The eastern 1/4 (to 1/3) of the state is heavily white & heavily Republican.  The central 1/2 of the state (from benton to Overton) really has no black/ white mix at all.  In fact pratically all the counties in central TN that went (outside of Davidson, which is where Nashville is) are pretty much supermajority white, though the vast majority of these counties are very small (Jackson county which is 98.6% white, .15% black) went to Kerry by 19 , only has about 11,000 residents though

[TomC]

Something I've gotta wonder about is this state's ability to put out boring as dirt senators like Al Gore and Bill Frist.

Yeah and Carl Levin's a real jolt of excitement!

[Sam Spade]

The black/white thing is not a very strong influence in Tennessee, as Tennessee has one of the smallest black populations south of the Mason-Dixon line. (16.3%.  Florida and Arkansas have similar populations, only Texas has less)

The simple line with the state is this:  Western Tennessee votes Democrat, Eastern Tennessee votes Republican. 

This state used to be swing state in the 1980s because Central Tennessee was evenly divided. 

However, in the 1990s, the Nashville suburbs continued to grow and moved sharply to the GOP. 

Since 1994, only one Democrat has been elected statewide and that was Phil Bredesen, Mayor of Nashville.

I really can't see this trend changing at all in the future, unless the Democrat party changes.  So for the time being, unless Al Gore runs for President again (probably not even then), this state will be solidly Republican.

Looking over the black white thing, its not as strong as I thought.  The western 1/4 of the state irts pretty strong (not the majority part), but out of the counties in the western 1/4 of Tenn that the Dems won, Lake County has the smallest % of blacks at 31%.  The eastern 1/4 (to 1/3) of the state is heavily white & heavily Republican.  The central 1/2 of the state (from benton to Overton) really has no black/ white mix at all.  In fact pratically all the counties in central TN that went (outside of Davidson, which is where Nashville is) are pretty much supermajority white, though the vast majority of these counties are very small (Jackson county which is 98.6% white, .15% black) went to Kerry by 19 , only has about 11,000 residents though

Look at your numbers and it should tell you again why Harold Ford has little chance of winning that Senate seat.

[minionofmidas]

Likely not...but who knows? Is there a history of Black Democrat candidates for statewide office?

[memphis]

Likely not...but who knows? Is there a history of Black Democrat candidates for statewide office?

There isn't, which may work to Jr's favor.  The first generation of black political leaders (Jr's father's generation) could not or would not learn the behaviors necessary to court white voters. Jr comes across as professional and thoughtful, where his father and uncle are ghetto and irresponsible.

[memphis]

Gore's homestate advantage brought him within a few points of Bush, where Kerry was demolished in a race that was otherwise similar in other states. Similarly, Guiliani would lose NY by a much smaller number than Bush did.