2004 Gubernatorial Elections

[NHPolitico]

A place to start a  discussion of 2004 Gubernatorial Elections.  There will be a number of them to watch.

I am most interested in MO, with a tough Dem primary of the Incumbant Gov, Bob Holden.

Many other ones to watch such as MT and NC

VT could be interesting, but they have a history of giving governors a full 4 years. The mayor of Burlington, Progressive Party-ite Peter Clavelle,  is running as a Dem. He's trailing 44-33 according to a Research 2000 poll last October for Vermont's CBS station WCAX. Also running against the mayor in the primary is Peter Shumlin, the 2002 Dem nominee for Lt. Governor.  A Peter will win the nomination either way. If Clavelle gets it, it's unclear if he'd be any kind of party loyalist-- supporting all other Dems on the ballot. Shumlin is the establishment choice.

[NHPolitico]

Dean's no Progressive

He's everything to all people.  Even Clintonites are starting to see the writing on the wall and talking about what a logical continuation of Bill's legacy that Dean is.

[NHPolitico]

A place to start a  discussion of 2004 Gubernatorial Elections.  There will be a number of them to watch.

I am most interested in MO, with a tough Dem primary of the Incumbant Gov, Bob Holden.

Many other ones to watch such as MT and NC

IN should also be interesting.  There you have a liberal Democrat with 1 year incumbancy, who took over for a conservative Democrat, in a Conservative state.  

IN will go Republican.

Kernan has a terrific bio and he's already won as a supposed liberal.  I think he's the odd's on favorite. Still, this is an election referendum if there ever was one. If Indiana doesn't want to try GOP leadership in Indianapolis after all this time of one-party rule, it won't matter who's on the ballot.  Daniels is a solid candidate. If the voters want change, he's a person they can change to and only think of change in terms of direction and not ability.

[NHPolitico]

There is no doubt that Holden is in serious trouble here in Missouri.  He has been unpopular from the get go.  His first mistake was holding an
inauguration that cost $1 million.  The state always pays $125,000, but he raised the rest.  This didn't go over too well given the state's budget problems.  Of course the biggest problem is his bad luck of gaining the office just as the economy tanked.  Any how he faces a tough primary challenge from state auditor Claire Mccaskil.  His GOP opponent will be secretary of state Matt Blunt.  Blunt's only 33. He served one term in the Missouri house and then got elected Sec. of State against a weak opponent.  It will be interesting, because Blunt has never really ran a "real" race. His house seat was safe GOP and he had a huge war chest against an under funded opponent in the Sec. of State's race.  The last poll I saw had Blunt ahead of Holden by 2 points and Mccaskil ahead of Blunt by 2 points.  I would be willing to dump Holden in the primary if Mccaskil would have a better chance of saving the seat.  

With the demographics of the state, I think Democrats are always competitive. They probably start at about 40% and they just have to pick up the rest.   I think even Holden would be competitive. Blunt will have to fight hard.

[NHPolitico]

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With the demographics of the state, I think Democrats are always competitive. They probably start at about 40% and they just have to pick up the rest.   I think even Holden would be competitive. Blunt will have to fight hard.

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By the same token, Republicans start with slightly more than 40% in Missouri.  Margins tend to be 51% to 49% or even closer, but Republicans win the 51% about 60% of the time - we've had a few more GOP senators and governors than Dems for the last couple of decades.  This moribund old state changes only very slowly, but is trending just slightly more GOP over the years.  

I actually haven't been in the US for 5 months or so, so I can't report on the mood in MO directly, but all that I hear is that Holden is unpopular - certainly he was barely elected the first time.  Its going to come down to another typical landslide for the Democrat in St. Louis and a landslide for the Republican in the rural and suburban parts of the state, balancing out to neary 50/50.  It could easily be influenced by Bush getting (I predict) a breakout, for Missouri, 52-53%.  The Blunt family name is well known in the state, certainly positive in the non-urban parts.

Well, I do predict Blunt  will win even if Claire beats Bob in the primary.  Mainly because of Bush's coattails.

[NHPolitico]

The primary for Governor in Missouri will be August 3, 2004

I wonder about the dynamics of that.  Whether a delay to August will help or hurt Holden.