Liberian Elections - October 11, 2005

[WMS]

At least, the BBC said October 11.

BBC links here and here and here and here and here and here.

Here is the Liberian National Elections Commission for official results. They even have PDF maps of electoral districts. Aren't there bloody U.S. states that don't have that?

I hope this works out for them.

[bgwah]

They should become a state.

[WMS]

They should become a state.

They couldn't possibly have had a worse experience than they did as an 'independent' country.

And at the moment for the Presidency Johnson-Sirleaf is in the lead w/24.6% - good, I think.
Followed closely by Weah w/21.2% - kind of an enigma candidate.
Then a drop down to a literal tie for third place, held by Brumskine (maybe OK, maybe not) w/10.2% and Tubman (representing Samuel Doe's old party...make of that what you will) w/10.2% (exact same # of votes!). Coming in fifth is one Joseph Korto, who is doing better than expected w/9.6% and who the BBC failed to profile but consequently I have no idea what he represents.
Next up is Sherman w/5.8%, representing the party of the transitional government ('democratic but corrupt' the BBC indicated), then Massaquoi w/4.3% (representing Charles Taylor's old party), then Tipoteh w/4.2% (no friggin idea who this is), then a bunch of really minor candidates. 
Lots of polling places left to report in - the tallies are being brought by porters, after all, since there's like hardly any paved roads in Liberia - but turnout is high, around 71%.
No idea how their legislative races will turn out (pretty competitive so far).

And yes, so far I am finding the Liberian elections more interesting that the seriously boring U.S. House of Representatives' races in 2006.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They should become a state.

They couldn't possibly have had a worse experience than they did as an 'independent' country.

Actually they got along pretty well until that bastard Doe took over in 1980.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Weah (a former footballer) is apparently leading now

[WMS]

They should become a state.

They couldn't possibly have had a worse experience than they did as an 'independent' country.

Actually they got along pretty well until that bastard Doe took over in 1980.

Not that well - a nasty little one-party state run by the Americo-Liberians and their True Whig Party, who adopted the unpleasant practices of the pre-Civil War South (I said the unpleasant practices, States, so I'm not implying every single thing about the old South is bad! Keep your powder dry... ), including slavery for quite some time. It is true that things got worse under Doe, who ironically had quite a bit of popular support for his coup from the native tribes.

Weah (a former footballer) is apparently leading now

The blank slate is in the lead! Doing well in Montserrado so far, which seems to be the most populated county - yep, the biggest pot of voters.

Brumskine appears to have a stronghold in Grand Basa (decent chunk of voters) and River Cess (it's like Wyoming - hardly any people), which is boosting his chances of catching up to Johnson-Sirleaf, who is in turn doing well in Margibi (close to Grand Basa in voters). Some unknown called Kromah is doing well in Lofa (not too shabby in # of voters either), BTW lowest turnout so far at 63%. There's not a lot of people in the SE...

Still more entertaining than most U.S. elections.

Still way too many polling places left to report in to call the race.

[M]

Is Ellen the one who wrote that infuriating article in international newspapers telling the U.S. that we had a DUTY to our former-almost-colony to invade and depose Taylor? Cause if so, screw her, we don't have a DUTY to invade anything.

As it happens, we somewhat sensibly sent a short-term Marine force and then very sensibly handed the job to ECOWAS and the AU.

[WMS]

Is Ellen the one who wrote that infuriating article in international newspapers telling the U.S. that we had a DUTY to our former-almost-colony to invade and depose Taylor? Cause if so, screw her, we don't have a DUTY to invade anything.

As it happens, we somewhat sensibly sent a short-term Marine force and then very sensibly handed the job to ECOWAS and the AU.

Don't know. *shrug* We ended up doing a 'display of force' instead which convinced Taylor to leave (read the BBC links; one of them mentions this), but we then left peacekeeping to ECOWAS and the AU as you mentioned above.

[minionofmidas]

In Grand Gedeh County Weah's got 89% of the vote - after 5 out of 73 polling stations reported. His lead seems to be growing, nationally.

[WMS]

In Grand Gedeh County Weah's got 89% of the vote - after 5 out of 73 polling stations reported. His lead seems to be growing, nationally.

I just checked and Weah is pulling away from everybody else. Still, the heavily populated areas still have a lot of polling places yet to report.

I'm going to post a summary soon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liberia like it's football then?

[WMS]

President: * = possible Senate or House representation for party per current results
Weah, CDC (enigma of a party, personalist), 26.4%*, Liberians love their football Al.
Johnson-Sirleaf, UP (ran against Taylor last time, err, left?), 15.2%*
Brumskine, LP (was with Taylor but broke w/him and now hostile), 11.9%*
Sherman, COTOL (current transitional party, 'democratic but corrupt'), 10.1%*
Tubman, NDPL (Samuel Doe's old party), 9.7%*
Korto, LERP (no idea but the BBC missed his voting strength), 6.4%*
Massaquoi, NPP (Charles Taylor's old party, strength overstated by BBC), 4.9%*
Tipoteh, APD (?), 3.8%*
Kromah, ALCOP (?), 3.1%*
...
Tor-Thompson, FAPL (?), 1.0%*
...
Kieh, Jr., NDM (?), 0.6%*
...
Morlu, UDA (?), 0.4%*
Reeves, NRP (?), 0.4%*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
These people need a runoff system...

Current Liberian Senate:
UP 3
APD 2
Independent 2 (See note below)
NPP 2
ALCOP 1
CDC 1
COTOL 1
LP 1
NDPL 1
NRP 1
---------------------------------------------
No clear pattern.

Note: The Independent candidate and likely winner in Nimba County is none other than Prince Johnson, the guy who splintered from Taylor's movement early on and had Samuel Doe tortured to death! On tape, no less. He's still around...

Current Liberian House of Representatives:
11 COTOL
5 CDC
5 LP
4 Independent
4 UP
3 APD
3 NDM
3 NPP
1 ALCOP
1 FAPL
1 LERP
1 NDPL
1 NRP
1 UDA
16 seats do not have available results.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wow, the transitional party is doing quite well! Still a lot of results coming in...

Just one analysis listing the ideologies of the parties would be nice, but noooooo...

[minionofmidas]

I don't thinking people are voting on ideology, man.

[WMS]

I don't thinking people are voting on ideology, man.

Probably not, but darn it, without that we all can't take sides and bitch at each other. I have a suspicion that the Liberty Party is a libertarian/classical liberal party, but I can't prove it...

Updated Summary: All but 4 polling places have reported in - and yes, those four could swing one of the House races (Bong 2).
President: * - Senate/House Representation
Weah, G. (CDC) - 28.3%*
Johnson-Sirleaf, E. (UP) - 19.8%*
Brumskine, C. (LP) - 13.9%*
Tubman, W. (NDPL) - 9.2%*
Sherman, H. (COTOL) - 7.8%*
Massaquoi, R. (NPP) - 4.1%*
Korto, J. (LERP) - 3.3% (almost won a House seat)
Kromah, A. (ALCOP) - 2.8%*
Tipoteh, T-N. (APD) - 2.3%*
...
Morlu, J. (UDA) - 1.2%*
...
Kieh, Jr., G. (NDM) - 0.5%*
...
Reeves, A. (NRP) - 0.3%*
------------------------------------
Yep, they love their football.

Senate:
COTOL 3
UP 2
Independent 2**
NDPL 2
NPP 2
APD 1
CDC 1
LP 1
NRP 1
--------------------------------
Well, the balance shifted somewhat from the last one. I think the more democratically-inclined parties can get a majority. And ** = Prince Johnson's won his Senate seat. I'm amazed he survived the civil wars.

House of Representatives:
CDC 15
COTOL 8
LP 8
UP 8
Independent 7
APD 5
NPP 4
NDM 3
ALCOP 2
NDPL 1
NRP 1
UDA 1
------------------------------------------------
Definitely a shift from my last report. Weah's CDC party dominated the populous Montserrado County. Wow, there appears to be four major parties. I think the coalition-building could be fun to watch.

Note: You wouldn't believe how low the winning percentage margins are here. If a candidate got 30%, that's a strong showing! I guess this answers the question of what happens in a FPTP system with several strong parties...

[Jens]

LIBERIA: Figures from country's violent past cruising to legislative posts

MONROVIA, 21 October (IRIN) - Ex-combatants accused of grisly war crimes could soon be answering to "Honorable Member," after Liberians voted overwhelmingly to hand them seats in the country's new parliament.

Ex-warlord "General Peanut Butter" might be known as a brutal militia leader under notorious former president Charles Taylor, but to youth in Nimba County he is the right man for the job.

"Many young people in this county regard him as a hero who helped defend against rebels," Saye Gbelli, a youth leader in Nimba, told IRIN.

With no outright winner from the 11 October presidential contest, Liberians are scheduled to vote on 8 November in a second round between footballer George Weah and former finance minister Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf.

The National Election Commission says it will announce on 26 October the final results of Liberia's first election since the 2003 end of a 14-year war.

But the returns - from all 3,070 polling stations tallied - show overwhelming leads in parliamentary races for an ex rebel commander linked to the hacking death of former president Samuel Doe, the wife and the one-time son-in-law of Taylor - both accused of continued close ties with him, and an ex-police chief accused of torture.

Nearly 75 percent of Liberia's eligible voters turned out for the ballot, a sign that the people are pinning their hopes on the elections as a turning point after a war that killed hundreds of thousands and essentially flattened the country's infrastructure.

But the spectre of past violence continues to haunt the present.
 
Human rights groups warned before the elections that allowing villains from the past to serve in government was a risk. Diplomats earlier this year wrangled over whether to allow people suspected of war crimes or other offences to run, but those favouring keeping them within the fold won out.

New York-based Human Rights Watch said in September, "The abusive records of these men and women, none of whom were ever prosecuted for alleged crimes, raises concerns that they may resort to force and other extra-legal measures to circumvent and subvert Liberia's political process and the legal system."

The group's report cited Adolphus Dolo (aka General Peanut Butter); Taylor's former son-in-law, Edwin Snowe; his wife, Jewel Howard Taylor; and former police official, Saah Gbollie - all of whom have taken wide majorities in their districts or counties.

In its September report, HRW said Gbollie, while serving as deputy national police chief under Taylor, "was directly implicated in the arrest, beating and torture" of a journalist and a human rights lawyer.

Gbollie - who has won the most votes for the lower house seat for Margibi County - denies any such act.

"I committed no abuse in my past," he told IRIN. "My people have confidence in me and that is why they elected me as their representative."

Ex-warlord Prince Johnson, who led the faction that murdered Doe, is now an evangelist. Along with Dolo, Johnson looks set to win a senate seat in Nimba County.

"Prince Johnson is very popular with the people in upper Nimba since during the 1990 civil war when he broke away from Charles Taylor's rebel faction," youth leader Ggelli said.

Snowe is one of several Liberians under a UN travel ban and other restrictions, accused of trying to foment unrest in the country and funnelling money to Taylor in exile.

"I have no link with Mr Taylor," he told IRIN on Friday. "I have sent him no money and I challenge anyone to prove it to the contrary."

Snowe said, "I have been advocating for Mr Taylor to face justice to vindicate himself of the charges against him." He insisted Taylor would have no influence over him in his post as parliamentarian from one of the 14 districts in the capital, Monrovia.

Taylor's wife, who is also under a UN travel ban and assets freeze, is on her way to winning one of the two senatorial seats in Bong County.

As for the skeletons in the closets, candidates accused of past misdeeds say that since Taylor fled, the slate has been swept clean.

"Those raising [claims of past abuses] should go and ask Charles Taylor in Nigeria," said former police chief Gbollie. "He headed the government and he is answerable for it."

[Michael Z]

Liberia like it's football then?

George Weah is a national hero in Liberia. Lest we forget, he was world footballer of the year 1995, and is possibly the most successful African footballer of all time.

Like Lewis said, people won't exactly be voting on ideology here. That said, he has done a lot of charity work for Liberia throughout the last ten years or so.

[WMS]

Ex-warlord Prince Johnson, who led the faction that murdered Doe, is now an evangelist. Along with Dolo, Johnson looks set to win a senate seat in Nimba County.

"Prince Johnson is very popular with the people in upper Nimba since during the 1990 civil war when he broke away from Charles Taylor's rebel faction," youth leader Ggelli said.

Johnson deserves a medal, not condemnation, for getting rid of Doe and breaking with Taylor. He was right on both counts. I find it intriguing that he is now an evangelist. Reminds me of General Butt Naked in Sierra Leone...

[WMS]

OK, let's finish this up.

President (Runoff to be held):
- WEAH, G. (CDC) 275,265 28.3%
- JOHNSON-SIRLEAF, E. (UP) 192,326 19.8%
- BRUMSKINE, C. (LP) 135,093 13.9%
- TUBMAN, W. (NDPL) 89,623 9.2%
- SHERMAN, H. (COTOL) 76,403 7.8%
Others below 5%...I don't feel like including them this time.

Gee, I think Weah will win. What do you think?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Senate:
COTOL 3, UP 2, Independent 2, NDPL 2, NPP 2, APD 1, CDC 1, LP 1, NRP 1

Winning % range (NOT margin of victory): 12.2% NDPL (Bomi) to 33.8% Independent (Nimba).

No overall control. Still. Strong showing by the NDPL and the NPP. 8 seats needed to govern. Using the vague 'pro-democracy' measure I used below in the House gets them 7 seats...almost. If they can grab one more supporter...the APD, maybe, they get 8.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
House:
CDC 15, UP 9, COTOL 8, LP 8, Independent 7, APD 4, NPP 4, NDM 3, ALCOP 2, NDPL 1, NRP 1, UDA 1

Winning % range (NOT margin of victory): 16.1% NPP (Bong 1) to 59.3% Independent (Montserrado 5). Smallest margin I spotted: Grand Kru 1, with a 41-vote difference between the UP and the APD.

I'm not sure where the Liberian National Elections Commission get 64 seats from...I have 63,, so 32 seats needed for a majority.

Still, my completely arbitrary assignment of the 'pro-democracy' side (CDC, UP, COTOL, LP...yeah, it's vague, but so is everything else here) gives them 40 seats, enough to govern. 44 if they ally with the APD as mentioned above in the Senate.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Special note: Independent candidates had their own logos, some quite charming. Here's the ones of the winning candidates:
Grand Bassa Senate - Err, Slingshots? What are those things?
Nimba Senate (Prince Johnson! Yay!) - A Bell.
Grand Gedeh 2 - A Cow. No, really.
Margibi 1 - A Hut? And Something Else? What IS that?
Margibi 4 - Three Candles.
Montserrado 5 - A Really Neat-Looking One - A White Dove On A Purple Background With The Logo 'To Restore Pride & Dignity'.
Montserrado 14 - An Angel. Yep, An Angel. I do love the Third World at Times. I wonder how long before the ACLU sets up a Liberian chapter to sue the candidate on 'violating the wall between church and state'?
Nimba 7 - Two Pine Trees. I think they're pine trees. But definitely trees.
River Cess 1 - A Hammer.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Barring a turnaround in the official certification and pending the Presidential Runoff, I think that's it.

[Michael Z]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/4421866.stm

Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf beats George Weah in final run-off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Johnson-Sirleaf becomes the first female leader of an African country

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Johnson-Sirleaf becomes the first female leader of an African country

There was a female Empress of Ethiopia in the 20th century. I think she was the second to last monarch before the military coup.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And now for another question, when will Bush's good buddy in Nigeria hand over Taylor to the new government to stand trial?

[Hatman 🍁]

Johnson-Sirleaf becomes the first female leader of an African country

There was a female Empress of Ethiopia in the 20th century. I think she was the second to last monarch before the military coup.

Hmm, I should have said President.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just say "first elected leader"

[minionofmidas]

There are accusations of fraud a-flying, but then that's the case in almost every election in Africa ... though I didn't hear anything from the first round.