Kentucky 2003

[agcatter]

Virginia will vote for a liberal Democrat for president when hell freezes over.

[Ryan]

I'm not predicting anything.

I think that the Dem vote in VA was depressed... you disagree.

We have to agree to disagree.

LOL what a nice neat conclusion!! Only thing is that if most of our discussion ended like that, there would be no point in joining them in the first place.

Realpolitik, I would be genuinely interested if you could post a summary of why you think Va. will vote Democrat in the 2004 elections. This is not a challenge, I personally, from all my research, see no way to arrive at the conclusion you did and I would be happy to be shown something I missed. I agree that in a near-landslide election it could vote democratic but in a reasonably close election with people voting they way they "usually" do, I just dont see this happening.

In case your Virginia theory is based on a gut feel then that fine. Really!!! I myself have many such theories though if I mention them on this forum I usually specify that I don't have conclusive evidence for it.
If THAT is the case the "agree to disagree" thingy works for me.

[Sibboleth]

MIGHT not will
VA could go either way.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think the states such as Virginia that are full of new suburbs are going to be the only ones trending Republican in 2004. Nouveau riche suburbanites are a natural New Right constituency, and the Democrats would just be alienating everyone else by trying to please them. (Clinton's support for school uniforms was a good example of this.)

Let's face it: Poor rural and central city voters such as myself really are quite different from the new brand of conservatives who you hear on Fox News Channel and talk radio. We're part of a whole different America from the one the New Right resides in.

[Sibboleth]

Thing about VA is that it is very much divided between DC and Richmond suburbia... and inner city Richmond... and the poor, rural south of the state.

Which has the potential for a very unstable political balance.

[rbt48]

If Bush can't carry Virginia in 2004, he might as well close up shop.  Even Ford carried Virginia, the only Southern state Carter lost that year (1976).

[Sibboleth]

Bush's margin over Gore in VA was only 8%

[Ryan]

LOL well I dont think the last two posts are necessarily contradictory.

Bush did win Va by 8% and several other states by not much more.
Does that mean that he could NEVER lose it?? Of course not; if unforeseeable events cause a near-landslide defeat it would be sure to go democratic.
Just like in the (comparatively) more likely event of a GOP landslide; Illinois and New Jersey would be among the states going GOP.

But in the case of a closely fought election similar to the 2000 race all of these states have factors, which make them near certain to remain in the column they are in now.

To restate it another way if the GOP loses Virginia in 2004 there is no way it could be a "close" race and Bush would have lost by a wide margin. Similarly if Illinois and New Jersey vote GOP then you can be sure the election was a GOP landslide. In a reasonably close race, which most of us expect, they will vote pretty much the same way as in 2000.  

[Sibboleth]

I'm expecting a close race in terms of the popular vote.
I'm not so sure about the EC though.

[DarthKosh]

I'm expecting a close race in terms of the popular vote.
I'm not so sure about the EC though.

I think it will be close but not Bush/Gore close.

[Ryan]

I'm expecting a close race in terms of the popular vote.
I'm not so sure about the EC though.

I think it will be close but not Bush/Gore close.

If close is around 10% margin then yes it will be close but just think of how many states were won in 2000 by margins of <10% or just above. That's what makes politics exciting It would be dreadfully bring if 40 states were likely to give one nominee or the other 20% margins.

In this case, My question would be, is there a realistic chance that in a reasonably close race, the democratic nominee can win Virginia. My answer is NO.

Btw since U just mentioned EC votes were you talking nation-wide?? In that case the race is bound to be close in terms of the popular vote. My read is that the nation is split 45-10-45 so the popular vote total will be close in any event.

[Nym90]

The new Governor of Kentucky.

[jravnsbo]

That is Gov Ernie Fletcher!

"My Old Kentucky Home"  everybody sing it now!

[NHPolitico]

The 2000 "election" was a paradox.

The most economically depressed areas trended Republican, while economically prosperous areas trended Democratic.

It made no sense whatsoever.

That's not an anomaly. It's the way these states have voted for over 10 years now-- longer in some cases.  It's why Howard Dean is so frustrated. He says, "Hey, look at me! I come with higher minimum wages, 'free' healthcare paid for with Yankee tax dollars, so why don't you wrap your loving arms around me?" Bush probably feels the same way. The biggest beneficiaries of his tax break plan are Gore staters.  For all the talk that voters vote their pocketbook, they sure don't do it in any way that makes sense.

[NHPolitico]

As far as VA-9 goes, that was just Hyperbole to make a point

But I think that the Dems do have an excellent chance in VA next election... but it depends on the candidate.

In 2000 VA did not vote as solidly GOP as everyone thought it would, Bush's margin was under 10%

VA as a whole is (slowly) trending back towards the Dems, as is evidenced by them having a net gain in the State Assembly for the first time in about 30 years.

The Upper South as a whole looks promising for the Dems next election.
As long as they don't pick someone like Kerry...

Warner ran as a pro-gun, anti-tax Bubba-at-heart. He's not governing that way, but that's how he ran. Same in Louisiana with Blanco. No national Democrat can run that way.

Regarding the legislature, you need more than that for a trend.  Going from 65% control to 61% control isn't that big of a drop. One of those lost seats was a black district that Winsome Sears could have held on to, but chose not to run for re-election. In the Senate, the GOP went from 57.5% control to 60% control.  Even if they'd lost a seat, it still would have made that election a meaningless blip at this point.

[jravnsbo]

doesn't VA still have the one term only term limit for its governors?

As far as VA-9 goes, that was just Hyperbole to make a point

But I think that the Dems do have an excellent chance in VA next election... but it depends on the candidate.

In 2000 VA did not vote as solidly GOP as everyone thought it would, Bush's margin was under 10%

VA as a whole is (slowly) trending back towards the Dems, as is evidenced by them having a net gain in the State Assembly for the first time in about 30 years.

The Upper South as a whole looks promising for the Dems next election.
As long as they don't pick someone like Kerry...

Warner ran as a pro-gun, anti-tax Bubba-at-heart. He's not governing that way, but that's how he ran. Same in Louisiana with Blanco. No national Democrat can run that way.

Regarding the legislature, you need more than that for a trend.  Going from 65% control to 61% control isn't that big of a drop. One of those lost seats was a black district that Winsome Sears could have held on to, but chose not to run for re-election. In the Senate, the GOP went from 57.5% control to 60% control.  Even if they'd lost a seat, it still would have made that election a meaningless blip at this point.

[NHPolitico]

doesn't VA still have the one term only term limit for its governors?

As far as VA-9 goes, that was just Hyperbole to make a point

But I think that the Dems do have an excellent chance in VA next election... but it depends on the candidate.

In 2000 VA did not vote as solidly GOP as everyone thought it would, Bush's margin was under 10%

VA as a whole is (slowly) trending back towards the Dems, as is evidenced by them having a net gain in the State Assembly for the first time in about 30 years.

The Upper South as a whole looks promising for the Dems next election.
As long as they don't pick someone like Kerry...

Warner ran as a pro-gun, anti-tax Bubba-at-heart. He's not governing that way, but that's how he ran. Same in Louisiana with Blanco. No national Democrat can run that way.

Regarding the legislature, you need more than that for a trend.  Going from 65% control to 61% control isn't that big of a drop. One of those lost seats was a black district that Winsome Sears could have held on to, but chose not to run for re-election. In the Senate, the GOP went from 57.5% control to 60% control.  Even if they'd lost a seat, it still would have made that election a meaningless blip at this point.

Yep. I think George Allen would still be governor without that dumb limit. He'd be perfectly positioned for 2008 as a "Pataki" from Virginia.

[jravnsbo]

yes a number of good men have been limited in VA with 1 term rule.  Esp with Warner being in a solid seat and now Allen, not much room to move up either.